The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad‘s government marks a watershed moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, closing over five decades of Assad family dominance in Syria.
Driving the news
- The dramatic collapse of the regime highlights the convergence of military, political, and diplomatic forces that emboldened the rebels and fractured the regime’s defenses.
- In a meticulously planned offensive six months in the making,
Syrian rebels achieved what seemed improbable after 13 years of civil war: they ousted President Bashar al-Assad. The operation, led by the Islamist coalition Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) with the support of the Syrian National Army (SNA), unfolded with unprecedented speed. Within two weeks, rebels captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, before pushing south to Damascus. By Sunday, the Assad regime had crumbled entirely, ending the family’s autocratic rule. - This coordinated offensive capitalized on a moment of acute weakness for Assad and his allies. Years of corruption and economic mismanagement had hollowed out Assad’s military, leaving it unable to counter the rebels’ swift advances. Compounding this vulnerability was the absence of Hezbollah fighters, who had been redeployed to counter Israeli strikes in Lebanon, and Russia’s waning support as it focused on its war in Ukraine.
Why it matters
The fall of Assad’s regime signals a dramatic reshaping of power dynamics in the Middle East. For Iran, the loss of a key ally disrupts its “Axis of Resistance,” a network of influence stretching through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. The collapse of this axis weakens Hezbollah’s ability to threaten Israel and undermines Iran’s regional leverage.
For Russia, Assad’s ouster jeopardizes its long-term presence in the Mediterranean. The Russian naval base at Tartus, Moscow’s only warm-water port, is now at risk as the rebel alliance consolidates control. Similarly, Russia’s Khmeimim airbase near Latakia, a critical launchpad for military operations in the region, faces uncertainty.
Conversely, Turkey emerges as a major power broker in the new Syria. By facilitating the rebels’ planning and ensuring minimal resistance along its border, Ankara is well-positioned to shape the country’s post-Assad transition. This allows Turkey to advance its dual objectives: securing its borders from Kurdish autonomy movements and facilitating the repatriation of millions of Syrian refugees living in Turkey.
The big picture: A perfect storm
The conditions leading to Assad’s fall were created by a perfect storm of geopolitical shifts, military strategies, and domestic weaknesses within Syria:
A demoralized military
Years of corruption, looting, and mismanagement had reduced the Syrian armed forces to a shadow of their former strength. A regime insider described tanks and planes sitting idle due to fuel shortages, while soldiers’ morale plummeted under unpaid wages and the grinding stalemate of the civil war. When the rebel offensive began, the military crumbled rather than mounted a cohesive defense.
Iran and Hezbollah’s distraction
Hezbollah, Assad’s most effective battlefield ally, had withdrawn many of its fighters from Syria to counter escalating Israeli operations in Lebanon. Israel’s campaign, launched amid the broader fallout from the Gaza war, delivered heavy blows to Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure, forcing the group to prioritize its survival. Iran, overstretched by these developments and its ongoing conflict with Israel, was unable to mobilize the resources needed to rescue Assad.
Russia’s waning commitment
Once Assad’s most reliable backer, Russia’s focus had shifted to its war in Ukraine, where its military and political capital are deeply invested. Moscow’s inability—or unwillingness—to intervene decisively left Assad isolated. This contrasted sharply with 2015, when Russia’s intervention turned the tide in Assad’s favor during a pivotal moment in the civil war.
Turkey’s tactical positioning
Although Turkey officially denied any involvement in the rebels’ offensive, sources indicate that Ankara’s tacit approval was crucial. Turkish authorities had been briefed on the operation’s planning, signaling a shift in Ankara’s approach to Assad after years of diplomatic stalemates. By greenlighting the offensive without direct involvement, Turkey avoided provoking Russia while simultaneously bolstering its influence in Syria’s future.
What they are saying
- Ahmed al-Sharaa, widely known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the controversial leader of HTS, addressed a jubilant crowd in Damascus, promising an era of “justice and cooperation.”
- “How many people were displaced across the world? How many people lived in tents? How many drowned in the seas?” al-Golani told a huge crowd at the medieval Umayyad Mosque in central Damascus, referring to refugees who died trying to reach Europe.
- “A new history, my brothers, is being written in the entire region after this great victory,” he said, adding that with hard work Syria would be “a beacon for the Islamic nation”.
- His words struck a delicate balance between triumphalism and reconciliation, signaling an attempt to reassure Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious communities. However, many remain skeptical about HTS’s ability to transition from a militant force to a governing authority.
- US president Joe Biden: “The fall of the regime is a fundamental act of justice. It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria. We will engage with all Syrian groups, including within the process led by the United Nations, to establish a transition away from the Assad government toward independent, sovereign Syria with a new constitution.”
- Asked by reporters what should happen to the deposed president, who reportedly has fled to Moscow, Biden said, “Assad should be held accountable.”
- US president-elect
Donald Trump : “Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led byVladimir Putin , was not interested in protecting him any longer. There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place. They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever. - Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success. Likewise, Zelensky and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians.”
Could Iran turn to nukes now?
The fall of Assad’s regime presents a profound challenge for Iran, striking at the heart of its regional strategy and weakening its “Axis of Resistance.” Syria, long a critical conduit for Iranian arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon, is now a lost link in this chain. As Iran recalibrates its position, the regime may face an existential question: Should it pursue a nuclear weapon as a hedge against further losses and as a tool to reassert its regional influence?
“And will the Iranians — weakened by the loss of Hamas and Hezbollah, and now Mr al-Assad — conclude that their best path is to open a new negotiation with Mr Trump, only months after sending hit men to kill him? Or, alternatively, will they race for a nuclear bomb, the weapon some Iranians view as their last line of defense in a new era of vulnerability,” asked an article in the New York Times.
Iran’s nuclear ambitions are not new, but the current situation could provide a powerful impetus to accelerate its program. The dramatic weakening of Tehran’s allies—first Hamas in Gaza, then Hezbollah in Lebanon, and now Assad in Syria—has left the regime vulnerable. Without its traditional proxies and strategic depth, Iran’s deterrent capability in the region is significantly diminished. In this context, a nuclear weapon may appear to Iran’s leadership as the ultimate guarantor of its survival and influence.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has recently warned of a “dramatic acceleration” in Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities, with Tehran already possessing enough material to potentially construct several bombs. While building a deliverable warhead could take over a year, the technical and geopolitical will to do so may now intensify. For Iran, the prospect of a nuclear weapon would serve not only as a deterrent against regional rivals like Israel and Saudi Arabia but also as a counterbalance to the US and its allies. However, pursuing this path risks further international isolation and the potential for preemptive strikes by adversaries.
Should Iran decide to expedite its nuclear ambitions, the move would likely inflame tensions in an already volatile region. Israel, which has demonstrated a willingness to carry out preemptive strikes against Iranian facilities, might respond aggressively. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, already alarmed by Tehran’s behavior, could seek nuclear capabilities of their own, sparking a dangerous arms race in the Middle East.
For the international community, Iran’s potential shift toward nuclear weapons development represents a critical test. Western powers, particularly the US, would face tough decisions on how to respond—through diplomacy, economic sanctions, or even military action. President-elect Donald Trump, poised to take office in just weeks, has previously adopted a hardline stance on Iran, leaving little room for compromise. Meanwhile, Tehran must weigh the immense risks of pursuing a nuclear arsenal against the perceived benefits of securing its geopolitical position.
If Iran accelerates its nuclear program, the ripple effects could be felt far beyond the Middle East. Global oil markets, already sensitive to disruptions, could face severe shocks if tensions escalate, particularly given the vulnerability of energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Additionally, the destabilization of Syria and the broader region might push Iran into deeper conflict with its adversaries, creating new fronts of violence in a region already ravaged by war.
For Iran’s leadership, the stakes could not be higher. While a nuclear weapon might offer strategic advantages, it also risks provoking a united international front against Tehran.
(With inputs from agencies)
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