Robinhood, Crypto Stocks, and What’s Happening in Simple Terms

What Happened With Robinhood (HOOD)

Robinhood Markets is a popular app where people buy stocks and crypto. Its stock ticker is HOOD.

• On Monday, before the market officially opened, HOOD’s stock went up a little (over 1%).
• It was one of the top-growing “big” stocks connected to crypto.
• This happened because a company called Bernstein (a research firm that studies stocks) raised its price target for HOOD.

Important: A “price target” is just Bernstein’s guess for where the stock price could go. They raised it from $130 to $160 and said the stock should “Outperform” (do better than average).

Bernstein’s Big Predictions for Robinhood

Bernstein thinks Robinhood’s business will grow a lot thanks to new stuff it’s offering.

• They think Robinhood’s prediction markets business will grow 64% every year through 2028.
• That could bring in about $1.7 billion in revenue (the money a company makes from sales).
• They also think three new areas could make up almost one-quarter of Robinhood’s total revenue by 2028:
  • Prediction markets (betting on real-world events)
  • Perpetual futures (a type of crypto contract with no end date)
  • Tokenized equities (stocks turned into digital tokens)

Bernstein says this $1.7 billion prediction market money will be helped by Robinhood’s Rothera exchange joint venture.

Why Bernstein Turned More Bullish (Hopeful) on Robinhood

“Bullish” just means thinking something will go up.

Bernstein liked Robinhood’s move into:

• Prediction markets
• Perpetual futures
• Tokenized equities

The analyst, Gautam Chhugani, expects between 2026 and 2028:

1. Revenue grows 32% per year
2. EBITDA (a measure of profit) grows 47% per year
3. EPS (earnings per share, profit per stock) grows 49% per year

His new $160 target is based on:

• A 35-times forward earnings multiple (a math way to value the stock)
• A 2028 EPS guess of $4.56
• This is about 36% above the average Wall Street guess of $118.28

Important: $160 is over 60% higher than HOOD’s month-low price of just under $100 on Friday.

Robinhood’s “Frenemy” Relationship

A “frenemy” is someone who is both a friend and a rival.

• Robinhood and a prediction platform called Kalshi are frenemies.
• Robinhood still sends Kalshi’s contracts to its customers.
• But Robinhood also offers its own event contracts through Rothera.
• Rothera already makes up 16% of Robinhood’s total event contract volume.

Bernstein says owning its own exchange gives Robinhood more control over pricing, product, and long-term money, while still using Kalshi’s marketplace.

How Rothera Came to Be

Here’s the simple backstory:

1. In late 2025, Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group (SIG) bought most of an exchange called LedgerX.
2. They renamed it Rothera.
3. In May this year, they launched event contracts on it.

What to Expect From Robinhood’s Next Earnings

• Robinhood will share its Q2 (second quarter) results on July 29.
• Bernstein expects results to match the average guess.
• Prediction market money should balance out weaker crypto activity.
• Wall Street currently predicts:
  • EPS: $0.55
  • Revenue: $1.27 billion

How Regular Investors Feel About HOOD

On Stocktwits (a place where everyday investors chat):

• Sentiment (overall mood) around HOOD was “bearish” (negative) over the past day.
• A week ago, it was “neutral” (neither good nor bad).

Crypto Market Snapshot

Bitcoin and Ethereum are the two biggest cryptocurrencies.

• Bitcoin (BTC) stayed around $64,200, stuck below $65,000 for over a month.
• Ethereum (ETH) stayed around $1,860.
• The whole crypto market dropped 0.9% in a day to about $2.25 trillion.
• On Stocktwits, Bitcoin mood was “neutral”; Ethereum mood was “bullish” (positive).

Other Crypto Stocks in Pre-Market

• MSTR (Michael Saylor’s company): up 0.5%; mood “bearish.” People are watching if it buys, sells, or holds Bitcoin.
• BMNR (Tom Lee-backed): up 0.5%; mood “bullish.” Expected to share Ethereum treasury updates.
• COIN (Coinbase) and CRCL (Circle): both up ~0.4%; mood “neutral.” They share USDC stablecoin revenue 50/50 and await CLARITY Act news.

Summary

Bernstein raised Robinhood’s price target to $160, expecting big growth from prediction markets, perpetual futures, and tokenized equities. Robinhood’s Rothera exchange is key, and its Q2 earnings are due July 29. Meanwhile, crypto prices like Bitcoin and Ethereum are steady, and related stocks are modestly up before the market opens.

FAQ

1. What is a prediction market?
It’s a place where people bet on whether real-world events will happen, like an election result or sports game.

2. What does “price target” mean?
It’s an analyst’s estimate of what a stock could be worth in the future. It’s not a guarantee.

3. What is Rothera?
It’s Robinhood’s own exchange (formerly LedgerX) used to offer event contracts, relaunched in May this year.

4. Why is Kalshi called a “frenemy”?
Because Robinhood works with Kalshi but also competes by running its own similar exchange.

5. What is the CLARITY Act?
It’s a proposed crypto law in the U.S. that investors are watching for updates on this week.