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Fox Poll Bombshell: Abbott, Hinojosa Deadlocked in Texas
Texas 2026 Elections: New Poll Shows Tight Races for Governor and Senate
What’s Happening in Texas Politics?
A new Fox News poll released on July 30, 2026 shows that two major races in Texas are super close — so close they’re basically tied! The poll asked 1,006 registered Texas voters what they think, and the results have a margin of error of 3 percentage points. That means the real numbers could be 3 points higher or lower for either candidate.
Governor’s Race: Abbott vs. Hinojosa
The Numbers
- Greg Abbott (Republican, current governor): 50%
- Gina Hinojosa (Democrat, challenger): 49%
Important Point: The difference is only 1 point — well inside the margin of error. This race is essentially a toss-up!
Where Hinojosa Is Winning Big
The poll breaks down support by different groups of voters. Hinojosa has big leads with:
- Independents: +27 points
- Moderate voters: +21 points
- Black voters: +71 points
- Latino voters: +16 points
- Suburban voters: +5 points
What the Candidates Are Saying
Gina Hinojosa’s Message:
"My plan is simple: save public schools and put money in your pocket by ending the Greg Abbott Corruption Tax."
She says Abbott has:
- Drained $1 billion from public schools
- Let costs skyrocket for working families
- Given the biggest tax giveaway in the country to data centers (big computer buildings that use lots of electricity and water)
Greg Abbott’s Strategy:
- Staying lighter on the campaign trail in July
- Using his big fundraising advantage (he has more money to spend on ads)
- Doing official governor work like responding to summer storms
- Promoting his "Taxpayer Empowerment Pledge" (a promise to cut property taxes)
- Calling for a ban on AI data center construction in rural neighborhoods
Important Point: Only 16% of Texans say they’re "getting ahead" economically. Hinojosa has the highest net approval of any politician in the poll at +11. Abbott is struggling to build support.
Senate Race: Talarico vs. Paxton
The Numbers
- James Talarico (Democrat, state representative): 51%
- Ken Paxton (Republican, current Attorney General): 48%
Important Point: Again, only a 3-point gap — inside the margin of error. Another toss-up!
Who Supports Whom?
- 98% of Democrats back Talarico
- 89% of Republicans back Paxton
- 68% of Independents support Talarico
- 24% of non-MAGA Republicans (Republicans who don’t strongly identify with Trump’s movement) support Talarico
Important Dates for the 2026 Texas Election
Mark your calendar! Here’s when you need to act:
| Step | What to Do | Deadline |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Register to vote (online, by mail, or in person) | October 5 |
| 2 | Request an absentee/mail ballot (by mail) | October 23 |
| 3 | Request an absentee/mail ballot (in person) | October 19 |
| 4 | Early voting period | October 19 – October 30 |
| 5 | Return your absentee ballot (by mail or in person on Election Day) | November 3 |
| 6 | ELECTION DAY | Tuesday, November 3 |
Callout: Don’t Miss Out! If you’re not registered by October 5, you can’t vote in November. Register early!
Summary
- Two huge Texas races are dead heats according to a new Fox News poll (July 23–27, 1,006 voters, ±3% margin of error).
- Governor: Greg Abbott (50%) vs. Gina Hinojosa (49%) — Hinojosa leads with Independents, moderates, Black voters, Latino voters, and suburban voters.
- Senate: James Talarico (51%) vs. Ken Paxton (48%) — Talarico gets strong Independent and even some non-MAGA Republican support.
- Election Day is November 3, 2026. Register by October 5. Early voting runs October 19–30.
FAQ
1. What does "margin of error" mean?
It means the poll isn’t perfect. If a candidate gets 50% in the poll, their real support could be as low as 47% or as high as 53%. Since both races have gaps smaller than 3 points, either candidate could actually be ahead.
2. Who is Gina Hinojosa?
She’s a Democratic state representative from Austin running for governor. She’s focusing on public schools, cost of living, and corporate tax giveaways.
3. Who is James Talarico?
He’s a Democratic state representative from Round Rock (near Austin) running for U.S. Senate against current Attorney General Ken Paxton.
4. Can I vote by mail in Texas?
Yes, but only if you qualify (age 65+, disability, out of county during voting, etc.). You must request your ballot by October 23 (by mail) or October 19 (in person) and return it by November 3.
5. Where can I register to vote?
You can register online (if you have a Texas driver’s license), by mail, or in person at your county voter registrar’s office. Deadline: October 5.
Reporting by Kristian Jaime, Top Story Reporter for the El Paso Times.
