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Friday Night Dingers: Top HR Props Set to Cash
Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday: 3 Players Ready to Go Deep
Home runs. Dingers. Long balls. Whatever you call them, there’s nothing quite like watching a baseball sail over the fence. And if you like a little extra excitement, betting on home run props (a fancy term for "will this player hit a home run today?") is one of the most popular ways to bet on baseball.
Here are my top three picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s full slate of games.
Quick Look: Today’s Top Home Run Picks
| Player | Odds | Why This Matchup Works |
|---|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | +524 | Facing a pitcher who gives up very hard contact; Varsho has massive power potential. |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | +377 | Facing a struggling rookie pitcher who gets crushed by left-handed hitters. |
| Jac Caglianone (KC) | +301 | Facing a pitcher who doesn’t strike anyone out; Caglianone hits the ball incredibly hard. |
Important Note on Odds: The numbers like
+524or+301are American Odds. A+sign means this is an "underdog" bet (less likely to happen, but pays more). For example, +524 means if you bet $10, you win $52.40 profit (plus your $10 back) if he homers. +301 means a $10 bet wins $30.10.
1. Daulton Varsho (Blue Jays) — 1+ Home Run (+524)
Vs. Kyle Leahy (Cardinals RHP)
The Simple Story
Varsho is in a slump—he hasn’t hit a home run since June 23. But don’t let that fool you. Earlier this season (in 2025), he crushed 20 home runs in just 271 plate appearances. That’s elite power. The "battery" is still charged; he just needs the right pitcher to jumpstart it.
Why Kyle Leahy is the Perfect "Jumpstart"
Kyle Leahy has a 3.55 ERA (Earned Run Average—a standard stat for how many runs a pitcher allows per 9 innings), which looks okay on paper. But advanced stats tell a scarier story for him:
- Exit Velocity (How hard the ball is hit off him): 1st Percentile (91.7 mph). Translation: He gets hit harder than 99% of pitchers.
- Hard Hit Rate (How often the ball is hit 95+ mph): 1st Percentile (50%). Translation: Half the balls put in play against him are smashed.
- vs. Lefties: Left-handed batters have a .382 wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average—a super-stat that measures overall offensive value) against him. That is terrible for a pitcher.
The Verdict: Varsho is a lefty with 20-homer power. Leahy serves up batting practice fastballs. This is a "buy low" spot on a slumping star.
2. Jose Ramirez (Guardians) — 1+ Home Run (+377)
Vs. Mitch Bratt (Diamondbacks LHP)
The Simple Story
Jose Ramirez is a future Hall of Famer. From 2021–2025, he hit 158 home runs (10th most in MLB). He just came off the Injured List (IL) and hasn’t hit for extra bases yet, but track records this long don’t disappear overnight.
Why Mitch Bratt is a "Get Right" Pitcher
Mitch Bratt is a rookie making his 5th start. It has not gone well:
- ERA: 6.32 (Very high).
- Walks (11) > Strikeouts (10). Translation: He struggles to throw strikes and doesn’t miss bats.
- vs. Lefties: Absolute disaster. Left-handed batters are slashing .364/.391/.818 (Avg/OBP/SLG) with a .503 wOBA. For context, a .503 wOBA is Shohei Ohtani / Aaron Judge territory.
The Verdict: Ramirez is a switch-hitter who murders left-handed pitching. Bratt cannot get lefties out. Ramirez is due for a big swing.
3. Jac Caglianone (Royals) — 1+ Home Run (+301)
Vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (Rockies RHP) — Game at Coors Field
The Simple Story
Jac Caglianone is a rookie with 80-grade raw power (scouting speak for "best-in-class strength"). He hits the ball insanely hard (98th Percentile Hard Hit Rate: 55.2%). His only flaw? He strikes out a lot (14th Percentile K-rate). He needs a pitcher who throws strikes so he can swing.
Why Tomoyuki Sugano is the Perfect Dance Partner
Sugano’s 2026 stats are weird (10-4 record but 7.22 xERA—Expected ERA based on quality of contact). The bottom line: He does not miss bats.
- Strikeout Rate: 2nd Percentile (13.8%). He almost never strikes hitters out.
- Barrel Rate Allowed: 2nd Percentile (14.2%). A "Barrel" is the perfect contact—high exit velocity + ideal launch angle. He gives up tons of them.
- vs. Lefties Away from Coors: .278/.336/.593 slash line with 2.61 HR/9 (Home Runs per 9 innings).
The Coors Field Factor: The game is in Colorado, where the thin air helps balls fly farther.
The Verdict: Sugano throws strikes (no K’s) -> Caglianone swings (low K-risk today) -> Caglianone makes "Barrel" contact -> Ball flies far in Colorado. Do not be surprised if this lands 500 feet.
Summary: Friday’s Home Run Cheat Sheet
| Player | Key Advantage | Risk Factor | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho | Elite power vs. Pitcher allowing max exit velo | Long current drought (since June 23) | (High Upside) |
| Jose Ramirez | Hall of Fame track record vs. Rookie who can’t retire LHBs | Recent IL stint, no XBH since return | (Trust the Track Record) |
| Jac Caglianone | 98th %ile Hard Hit vs. 2nd %ile K-rate/Barrel rate at Coors | High strikeout rate usually, but matchup negates it | (Best Matchup on Paper) |
FAQ: Your Home Run Prop Questions Answered
1. What exactly is a "Home Run Prop"?
It’s a simple Yes/No bet: "Will Player X hit a home run in today’s game?" You don’t care if their team wins, how many hits they get, or if they strike out 3 other times. One swing changes everything.
2. What do the percentile rankings mean (e.g., "1st Percentile Exit Velocity")?
Imagine lining up all 300+ MLB pitchers from Best (100th) to Worst (1st).
- 1st Percentile Exit Velocity Allowed = This pitcher gives up harder contact than 99% of the league. It’s bad for the pitcher, great for the hitter.
- 98th Percentile Hard Hit Rate = This hitter hits the ball hard more often than 98% of the league. It’s elite.
3. Why does Coors Field (Colorado) matter so much for home runs?
The air in Denver is thinner (higher altitude). Baseballs experience less air resistance (drag), so they carry significantly farther. A routine fly ball in New York is often a home run in Colorado.
4. What is "ISO" (.310 ISO for Varsho)?
Isolated Power (ISO) measures raw power by subtracting Batting Average from Slugging Percentage. .310 is elite. League average is usually around .150–.170. It confirms Varsho hits for extra bases, not just singles.
5. Should I bet all three?
That depends on your bankroll (betting budget) and risk tolerance.
- Varsho (+524) is a "Lottery Ticket" (High risk, huge payout).
- Caglianone (+301) is the "Sharp Play" (Best analytics matchup).
- Ramirez (+377) is the "Trust the Talent" play.
Many bettors sprinkle a small amount on the longshots (Varsho) and a standard unit on the favorite matchup (Caglianone).
Responsible Gaming Reminder: Sports betting should be for entertainment only. Never bet money you can’t afford to lose. Set limits, stick to them, and know when to stop. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
