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Cardinals Must Sell High on Pallante at Deadline
Should the Cardinals Trade Andre Pallante? A Simple Guide to the 2025 Trade Deadline
What’s Happening at the Trade Deadline?
The baseball trade deadline is like a giant swap meet where teams trade players. This year is extra special because it’s Chaim Bloom’s first deadline as the Cardinals’ General Manager (the boss who makes player decisions).
Important Context
Think of the GM like a fantasy football manager, but for real life. Bloom used to run the Red Sox, and now he’s in charge of the Cardinals. The old boss, John Mozeliak, was known for being very careful—he rarely traded good players who still had team control.
Right now (Sunday night when this was written): No moves have been made yet. The author thinks we might get the "boring version" of the deadline—only trading players whose contracts are expiring (rental players), not anyone valuable long-term.
The Big Question: Should They Trade Andre Pallante?
Who Is Andre Pallante?
Andre Pallante is a starting pitcher for the Cardinals. Here’s the simple version of his situation:
- Age/Experience: Young enough to be valuable, experienced enough to be reliable
- Contract Status: Making $4 million this year. Has two more years of "team control" after 2025 (meaning the Cardinals decide his salary through arbitration, not free agency)
- Future Cost: ~$6-7 million next year, ~$10-11 million in his final arbitration year (2027)
- Performance: Actually pitching better than expected this year
Why the Author Says: YES, Trade Him Now
Here’s the logic, broken down like you’re 5:
1. He’s at His Highest Value Right Now
Imagine you have a baseball card that’s worth the most it’ll ever be right this second. If you wait, it might get scratched (injury) or lose value (bad season). Sell high!
2. The Cardinals Have Replacements Ready
The team has five young pitchers knocking on the door who could fill his spot:
- Hunter Dobbins
- Quinn Mathews
- Michael McGreevy
- Kyle Leahy
- Richard Fitts (ready for 2026)
Think of It Like This
You have a reliable used car (Pallante). But in your garage, you have five newer, cheaper cars with way more potential. Why keep the old one when you could trade it for something great and still have plenty of rides?
3. The Math Works Out Beautifully (Surplus Value)
| What Pallante Gives | What He Costs | The "Profit" |
|---|---|---|
| ~4.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) through 2027 | ~$18 million total salary | ~$23 million in extra value |
ELI5: What is WAR?
WAR = Wins Above Replacement. It answers: "How many more games does this player help us win compared to a random guy from the minor leagues?" A 2 WAR player = 2 extra wins per season. Pallante projects for ~2 WAR per year. That’s really good for a 4th/5th starter.
4. What Could They Get Back?
Using modern prospect valuation models, Pallante’s value ≈ a 45+ Future Value hitter + a 40 Future Value pitcher
In plain English: Two pretty good prospects. Not superstars, but players who could really help the team soon. Examples of similar-value prospects in the Cardinals system:
- Yairo Padilla (45+ FV hitter)
- Pete Hansen type (40 FV pitcher, likely bullpen)
What About Lars Nootbaar?
The author also breaks down Nootbaar’s trade value—just in case you were wondering.
Nootbaar’s Quick Math:
- Rest of 2025: ~0.5 WAR
- 2026 projection: ~2 WAR (if he bounces back)
- Total value: ~2.5 WAR
- Salary owed: ~$10 million total
- Surplus value: ~$15 million
- Equivalent return: A 45+ FV pitching prospect (like Brandon Clarke) OR a 45 FV hitting prospect
The Catch:
Nootbaar has struggled this year (foot injury). Teams see an "average outfielder" right now. The Cardinals might wait until the offseason hoping he gets hot and raises his price.
Author’s Prediction:
- Pallante trade: Unlikely (but should happen)
- Nootbaar trade: 50/50 chance
Why This Would Be a Big Change
Under John Mozeliak (old regime): The Cardinals almost never traded controllable, useful players like Pallante. They kept everyone, waited for free agency, then let them walk for nothing (or a draft pick).
Under Chaim Bloom (new regime): Trading Pallante would signal: "We’re smart. We sell high. We trust our young guys. We plan for the future."
Real Talk: The Owner Might Say No
Bill DeWitt (the owner) loves Nootbaar—he’s a fan favorite. Sometimes owners block trades the GM wants. The author suspects this might be why Nootbaar stays, even if the baseball move is to trade him.
The Rotation Plan If Pallante Is Traded
2025 (Rest of Season) — "Hold the Fort"
Current 5: Mikolas, Gray, Matz, Liberatore, Pallante
If Pallante goes: Spot start young guys (Brycen Mautz, Pete Hansen). Risk? Yes. But the team probably won’t make playoffs anyway.
2026 — "The Kids Take Over"
- Sonny Gray
- Steven Matz
- Miles Mikolas
- Hunter Dobbins
- Quinn Mathews
- Matthew Liberatore (author loves him in rotation)
- Michael McGreevy / Kyle Leahy / Richard Fitts (depth)
2027+ — "The Wave Arrives"
By mid-2026, top prospects like Jurrangelo Cijntje, Liam Doyle, Tekoah Roby, Mason Molina, Ixan Henderson could be ready. All will be in AAA (one step below majors).
Summary: The Case in 5 Bullet Points
- Pallante is at peak value — 2 years control, pitching great, cheap contract
- Cardinals have 5+ MLB-ready starters behind him (Dobbins, Mathews, Liberatore, McGreevy, Leahy, Fitts)
- Trading him nets ~$23M surplus value — equivalent to two quality prospects
- Keeping him blocks better/cheaper young pitchers — no room in 2028 rotation anyway
- Doing it signals a smarter, modern front office — "sell high, trust the farm"
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
What does "team control" mean?
A: It means the team owns the player’s rights for a set number of years. They don’t have to pay him whatever he wants (free agency). They go through "arbitration"—a process where a panel decides a fair salary based on similar players. Pallante has 2 arbitration years left after 2025.
What’s a "45+ Future Value prospect"?
A: Prospect rankings (like FanGraphs) use a 20-80 scale.
- 45+ = "Above-average regular" potential. Could be a solid everyday player.
- 40 = "Fringe regular / good role player." Likely a reliever or bench bat.
- 50 = Average everyday player.
- 60+ = All-Star potential.
So Pallante ≈ one solid everyday hitter prospect + one useful pitcher prospect.
Why not just keep Pallante as depth?
A: Two reasons:
- Salary — He’ll make ~$17M over the next two years. The young guys make ~$700K (league minimum).
- Roster spots — Only 5 starters pitch. If 7 guys deserve it, 2 get squeezed to the bullpen or minors. Trading one now gets you assets instead of losing him for free later.
What if Pallante gets hurt after we trade him?
A: That’s the buyer’s risk. The whole point of "selling high" is letting another team take that risk. If he gets hurt before the trade, his value crashes. That’s why now is the time.
Is the author a Cardinals employee?
A: No! This is a fan/analyst opinion piece. The author explicitly says: "I don’t know if he’s even available… I don’t know how many teams really want him… I would agree with not trading him if I saw the offers." It’s a thought experiment: If there’s a market, here’s why they should do it.
Final Thought
The Cardinals have a rare chance: Turn a good-but-not-great pitcher into future building blocks while handing the ball to cheaper, higher-upside kids. That’s how smart teams stay good forever. Will Bloom pull the trigger? We’ll know by 5 PM CT on deadline day.
