11
2026 Playoff Crashers: 5 Teams Ready to Break Through
Colin Cowherd’s 2026 NFL Playoff Predictions: Five Teams Ready to Bounce Back
Quick Summary: FOX Sports analyst Colin Cowherd predicts five teams that missed the 2025 playoffs will return to the postseason in 2026. The key factors? Healthy quarterbacks, smart offseason moves, easy schedules, and a little bit of luck.
Why This Matters for NFL Fans
Every spring, all 32 fan bases dream of a Super Bowl run. But history shows only a handful of teams actually flip from "missed playoffs" to "playoff bound" in a single year. Cowherd—host of The Herd—looked at the 18 teams that sat home last January and picked his top five bounce-back candidates for 2026.
The Five Teams Poised for a Playoff Return
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2025 Record: Missed playoffs (first time since 2014)
Why They’ll Be Back:
- Patrick Mahomes is healthy — He tore his ACL in Week 15 last year; now he’s 100%
- Two elite additions — RB Kenneth Walker III (Super Bowl LX MVP) and CB Mansoor Delane (top-10 pick)
- Andy Reid’s track record — 27 seasons as a head coach, never had back-to-back losing seasons
- Bad luck in close games — Went 1-9 in one-score games last year; regression to the mean favors Kansas City
Cowherd’s Take: "When Mahomes has protection and a semi-solid run game, he’s a playoff quarterback. Kansas City is back in."
2. New Orleans Saints
2025 Record: Missed playoffs (last appearance: 2021)
Why They’ll Be Back:
- Rookie QB Tyler Shough caught fire — Went 5-4 as a starter, won 4 of last 5 games
- Offensive weapons loaded up — Signed RB Travis Etienne (joins Alvin Kamara), drafted WR Jordyn Tyson (top-10), added OL David Edwards
- Weak division — NFC South is wide open; "very winnable" per Cowherd
- Defense already top-10 — Doesn’t need to be elite, just good enough
Cowherd’s Take: "Tyler Shough led all rookies in completion percentage, passing yards, and passer rating. He was the surprise quarterback in the league."
3. New York Giants
2025 Record: Missed playoffs
Why They’ll Be Back:
- New regime — Head coach John Harbaugh (yes, that Harbaugh brother) + Year 2 QB Jaxson Dart
- Star WR returns — Malik Nabers back from ACL tear that ended his Year 2
- Elite draft haul — LB Arvell Reese (5th overall), OL Francis Mauigoa (10th overall), plus WR Malachi Fields
- Historic bad luck in close games — 2-15 in one-score games over two years (1-7 last year alone) — that has to flip
Cowherd’s Take: "I don’t think this is an 11-12 win team. I think they sneak in as a wild card."
4. Baltimore Ravens
2025 Record: 8-9 (first missed playoffs since 2021)
Why They’ll Be Back:
- Core intact — Same nucleus that made them an AFC powerhouse earlier in the decade
- Lamar Jackson health — Missed 4 games last year; never missed back-to-back playoffs as starter
- Soft schedule start — First 7 weeks are "a soft opening" for rookie HC Jesse Minter
- Minter = rising star — First-time play-caller, but Cowherd calls him "a great first-year head coach"
Cowherd’s Take: "They don’t have everything buttoned up, I think they make their way in."
5. Detroit Lions
2025 Record: 9-8 (missed playoffs after back-to-back NFC North titles in 2023-24)
Why They’ll Be Back:
- 6th easiest schedule in NFL — Based on 2025 opponent win%; last year NE had easiest schedule and made Super Bowl
- Core stars returning — QB Jared Goff, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, RB Jahmyr Gibbs
- OL shuffle, not rebuild — Penei Sewell moves to LT, rookie Blake Miller (top pick) takes RT
- Injury luck due — "Most injured defense the last two years" — regression should help
Cowherd’s Take: "This is a winning team… The Lions are back in the playoffs."
Important Points at a Glance
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Health is #1 — Mahomes, Jackson, Shough, Dart all need to stay upright
- Close-game luck flips — Chiefs (1-9), Giants (1-7) in one-score games will regress toward .500
- Coaching changes matter — Harbaugh (NYG), Minter (BAL), Moore (NO) all first-year with their teams
- Schedule helps — Lions and Ravens get soft landings; Saints play in weak division
- Draft hits pay fast — Walker, Delane, Reese, Mauigoa, Tyson, Miller all expected to start immediately
How to Spot a Bounce-Back Team (5-Step Checklist)
- Quarterback stability — Is the QB healthy, entering Year 2+, or has a proven track record?
- Offseason asset allocation — Did they address actual weaknesses with premium picks/free agents?
- Close-game regression — Were they unlucky in one-score games last year? (Bad luck rarely repeats)
- Schedule advantage — Do they get a soft early slate or play in a weak division?
- Coaching continuity or upgrade — Returning staff with proven success OR a highly regarded new hire
All five of Cowherd’s picks check at least 4 of 5 boxes.
Summary
Colin Cowherd believes the NFL’s revolving door will swing hard in 2026 for five specific franchises:
| Team | Biggest X-Factor | Cowherd’s Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | Mahomes health + 2 elite rookies | "Back in" |
| Saints | Shough’s leap + loaded offense | "Very winnable division" |
| Giants | Harbaugh + Dart Year 2 + draft haul | "Sneak in as wild card" |
| Ravens | Jackson health + soft start | "Make their way in" |
| Lions | Easiest schedule + injury luck flip | "Back in the playoffs" |
Bottom line: It’s never guaranteed—but if you’re betting on "worst-to-first" stories, these five have the best receipts.
FAQ
Why do so few teams go from "missed playoffs" to "playoffs" in one year?
A: The NFL is designed for parity. Salary caps, the draft (worst picks first), and short rosters make sustained dominance hard. But smart teams with QB stability and good coaching can flip fast—like the 2023 Texans, 2024 Commanders, or 2025 Patriots/Seahawks.
Is Tyler Shough actually good, or just a hot streak?
A: The numbers say real: led all rookies in completion %, passing yards, and passer rating over his 9 starts. Small sample, but the Saints bet big on him (Etienne, Tyson, Edwards). Cowherd calls him "the surprise QB in the league."
John Harbaugh coaching the Giants? I thought he was with the Ravens!
A: In this 2026 scenario, John Harbaugh left Baltimore (replaced by Jesse Minter) and took the Giants job. It’s a fictional/future projection—Cowherd’s prediction assumes this happened.
The Lions made the Super Bowl last year?
A: No—Cowherd references the 2025 Patriots (who had the easiest schedule in 2024 and made the Super Bowl in this timeline). The Lions were 9-8 and missed playoffs in 2025.
What’s a "one-score game" and why does it matter?
A: A game decided by 8 points or fewer (one possession). Teams that go 1-9 or 2-15 in these are usually unlucky, not bad—the next year, they typically regress toward .500, adding 2–4 wins automatically.
Enjoy the 2026 season—training camp hope is real for these five fan bases!
