Cubs vs Cardinals: Bad Blood, Big Stakes, Series Preview
Cubs vs. Cardinals: The Final Showdown of 2026 — Everything You Need to Know
The Big Picture
The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals are wrapping up their regular-season rivalry for 2026. After a back-and-forth year, the season series is tied 5–5. This weekend’s three-game set at Wrigley Field (Friday through Sunday) will decide who finishes on top — and could shake up the playoff picture.
Important Point:
The Cubs have surged since early July, going 21–11, while the Cardinals have stumbled to 14–20. Chicago now leads the division by 9 games — up from just 1.5 games on July 5.
How We Got Here: A Quick Timeline
- July 3–5 — Cardinals visit Wrigley. Cubs lose 2 of 3. Records: Cubs 50–40, Cardinals 47–40 (Cubs up 1.5).
- Last month — Cubs go to St. Louis and win 3 of 4.
- Since July 5 — Cubs: 21–11 | Cardinals: 14–20.
- Now — Cubs lead by 9 games. Season series tied 5–5. This weekend decides the tiebreaker.
Why This Series Matters
- Playoff implications: The Cardinals are fighting for the 3rd Wild Card spot. A series win could launch a September surge. A sweep by the Cubs? It might end St. Louis’s postseason hopes.
- Historical weight: These teams have played 2,536 games — the 2nd-most in Cubs history (only Cubs–Pirates at 2,631 is higher).
- Cubs dominance at home: Chicago has 716 home wins vs. St. Louis — their most against any visitor. They’re 9–4 in their last 13 home games vs. the Cardinals.
Meet the Cardinals: What the Experts Say
We talked to Doc Holliday, manager of the Cardinals SB Nation site Viva el Birdos. Here’s his scouting report:
The Good (Cardinals Strengths)
- Andre Pallante & Kyle Leahy — Now the top of the rotation. Pallante may be St. Louis’s most effective pitcher right now.
- Alec Burleson — Back to Silver Slugger form. Had 3 HRs in one game recently. RBI machine.
- Jordan Walker — Hit his 1st HR since the All-Star break. Still making hard contact. No regression to his 2025 struggles.
- Ivan Herrera — Red-hot at the plate. Terrible defensive catcher (0 caught stealings all year), but elite as a DH.
- Everson Pereira — New pickup from the White Sox. Instant impact: game-saving catch in CF + go-ahead HR in same game.
- Riley O’Brien — Control is back. Converting saves lately.
The Bad (Cardinals Weaknesses)
- Matthew Liberatore (Friday’s starter) — “Dumpster fire.” Major control issues. Only 1 good start in last 4. Weak link.
- Caleb Ferguson — Trade deadline flop. Might not even be on the roster by Friday.
- JJ Wetherholt — Struggling at leadoff (.240s AVG), though showed signs of life recently.
Important Point:
Friday’s game is CRUCIAL. Liberatore vs. Cubs’ new starter Clay Holmes. If St. Louis survives Friday, they bring momentum. If not? The series — and maybe their season — could unravel fast.
Probable Pitching Matchups
| Day | Cubs Starter | Cardinals Starter |
|---|---|---|
| Friday (1:20 PM CT, Apple TV) | Clay Holmes, RHP • 0–1, 9.00 ERA in 1 Cubs start • 4–5, 2.86 ERA overall (10 starts) |
Matthew Liberatore, LHP • 5–9, 5.15 ERA, 1.52 WHIP • Control issues — big question mark |
| Saturday (1:20 PM CT, Marquee) | Matthew Boyd, LHP • 8–1, 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP |
Michael McGreevy, RHP • 4–9, 3.64 ERA, 1.22 WHIP • Couple rough starts lately |
| Sunday (2:15 PM CT, ABC/ESPN App) | Shōta Imanaga, LHP • 8–9, 3.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP |
Hunter Dobbins, RHP • 2–3, 3.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP |
How to Watch:
- Friday: Apple TV (1:20 PM CT) — How to watch guide
- Saturday: Marquee Sports Network (1:20 PM CT)
- Sunday: ABC (2:15 PM CT) — Full national broadcast, no blackouts! Also on ESPN App (sub required)
What to Watch For This Weekend
- Friday: Can Holmes settle in? Can Liberatore throw strikes?
- Saturday: Boyd (8–1) vs. McGreevy — battle of lefty vs. righty.
- Sunday: Imanaga (elite WHIP) vs. Dobbins — national TV showcase.
- Offense: Will Burleson/WALKER/Herrera keep raking? Can Cubs silence Pereira?
- Bullpen: O’Brien vs. Cubs’ late-inning arms.
What’s Next?
After this series, the Cubs host the White Sox (crosstown rivals) for 3 games starting Monday night at Wrigley.
Summary
- Season series tied 5–5 — this weekend breaks the tie.
- Cubs rolling (21–11 since July 5); Cardinals fading (14–20).
- Friday is the swing game: Liberatore (shaky) vs. Holmes (new Cub, strong track record).
- Cardinals have offensive firepower (Burleson, Walker, Herrera, Pereira) but pitching holes.
- Cubs own home-field history — 716 wins vs. Cards at Wrigley, most vs. any opponent.
- Playoff stakes real: Cardinals need a series win to stay alive for Wild Card.
FAQ
1. Why is the Cubs–Cardinals rivalry such a big deal?
It’s one of baseball’s oldest and most-played rivalries (2,536 games!). They’re separated by ~300 miles, share a division, and have passionate fanbases. History, geography, and high stakes make every series feel like October.
2. What does “Wild Card” mean?
In MLB, 6 teams per league make the playoffs without winning their division — these are “Wild Card” spots. The 3rd Wild Card is the last playoff ticket. St. Louis is chasing it; a series loss here makes it very hard to catch up.
3. Who is Clay Holmes and why does he matter Friday?
Holmes was a solid reliever/occasional starter for the Yankees. The Cubs just got him. He has a 2.86 ERA in 10 starts overall — but his one Cubs start was rough (9.00 ERA). Friday is his chance to prove he belongs in the rotation.
4. Why is Matthew Liberatore called a “weak link”?
He walks too many batters (control problems). In his last 4 starts, only 1 was good. The Cardinals need him to pitch well Friday — but the expert says don’t count on it.
5. Can I watch Sunday’s game for free?
Yes! Sunday is on ABC (over-the-air TV) at 2:15 PM CT — no cable, no blackout, no subscription needed. Just an antenna or basic TV package.