Do NFL Superteams Actually Win Rings? The Rams’ Terrifying Odds
Can the 2026 Rams Actually Win the Super Bowl? What History Tells Us About "Superteams"
By Bill Barnwell | ESPN Senior NFL Writer | August 10, 2026
The Big Picture: Why Everyone Loves the 2026 Rams
The Los Angeles Rams look like a preseason superteam—the kind we haven’t seen in years. Here’s why experts are excited:
- Coach Sean McVay was already a favorite to win Super Bowl LXI (that’s Super Bowl 61) before the offseason even started
- The Rams traded for Trent McDuffie and signed Jaylen Watson—two elite cornerbacks stolen from the Kansas City Chiefs (a potential Super Bowl rival)
- They drafted Ty Simpson as a future replacement for quarterback Matthew Stafford
- In a blockbuster move, GM Les Snead traded Jared Verse and three draft picks to Cleveland for Myles Garrett, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year
IMPORTANT STAT ALERT
At DraftKings sportsbook, the Rams have +550 odds to win the Super Bowl. That translates to a 12.5% implied probability—a massive 5.1 percentage points ahead of the next closest teams (Bills and Ravens at +1000). In simple terms: the betting market thinks the Rams are way better than everyone else.
The Million-Dollar Question: Do Preseason Favorites Actually Win?
Bill Barnwell looked at the 15 biggest preseason favorites since 1990 (using Pro Football Reference odds) to see what happened. Spoiler alert: it’s not pretty for the favorites.
The Historical Scorecard: 15 Superteams, Only 2 Champions
| Team | Year | Implied Odds | Gap Over Field | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 1994 | 18.4% | 4.6% | WON Super Bowl |
| Patriots | 2018 | 18.7% | 3.9% | WON Super Bowl |
| Patriots | 2007 | 20.9% | 10.5% | Lost Super Bowl (18-1 season) |
| Patriots | 2017 | 19.8% | 11.5% | Lost Super Bowl |
| Packers | 1997 | 18.3% | 4.1% | Lost Wild Card |
| Packers | 1998 | 18.0% | 6.5% | Lost Super Bowl |
| 49ers | 1990 | 14.3% | 6.3% | Lost NFC Championship |
| 49ers | 1995 | 19.3% | 4.8% | Lost Divisional Round |
| 49ers | 1996 | 19.2% | 9.6% | Lost Divisional Round |
| Rams | 2001 | 12.6% | 3.6% | Lost Super Bowl |
| Rams | 2002 | 15.7% | 7.8% | Missed Playoffs (7-9) |
| Patriots | 2008 | 16.1% | 5.8% | Missed Playoffs (11-5) |
| Patriots | 2009 | 18.2% | 7.1% | Lost Wild Card |
| Patriots | 2019 | 15.9% | 4.5% | Lost Wild Card |
| Chiefs | 2021 | 15.1% | 4.7% | Lost AFC Championship |
KEY TAKEAWAY
Only 2 of 15 (13.3%) preseason superteams won the Super Bowl. The math predicted 2.35 winners based on their odds—so reality matched expectations almost perfectly. Being the favorite doesn’t mean you’ll win—it just means you have the best chance.
Why Do Superteams Fail? The 6 Biggest Traps
Barnwell identified six recurring reasons why dominant preseason favorites fall short. Here’s how each applies to the 2026 Rams:
1. Brutal Schedules Wear Teams Down
- The Problem: The 2025 Rams were great (2nd in DVOA), but the Seahawks were better (1st in DVOA) and in the same division
- Rams Reality: ESPN’s Football Power Index projects the 2nd-toughest schedule in the NFL for 2026
- Divisional Gauntlet: Must play Seahawks and 49ers minimum 4 times—tougher than NFC East/South schedules
2. A New Superteam Emerges Out of Nowhere
- Historical Pattern: 1998 Vikings (15-1) came from nowhere to dethrone Packers
- 2026 Threats:
- Caleb Williams (Bears) exploding in Year 2
- Jordan Love (Packers) MVP season + health
- Jalen Hurts + Saquon Barkley (Eagles) resurgence
- Kyler Murray (Vikings) finally breaking out
3. The Quarterback Gets Hurt or Declines Suddenly
- Stafford Context: Coming off MVP season at age 38, but battled back issues last preseason
- Historical Precedents:
- Rich Gannon: MVP at 38 → hurt 7 games next year → retired soon after
- Aaron Rodgers: Back-to-back MVPs at 37-38 → dropped to 26th in QBR at 39
- Peyton Manning: 4,727 yards/39 TDs at 38 → benched next season
4. Injuries Hit Other Irreplaceable Stars
- Puka Nacua: No one replicates his catching + YAC + blocking combo
- Davante Adams is a great WR2, but different player type
- 2022 Nightmare: Stafford, Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp missed 28 combined games; 14 different OL starters; 5-12 record
5. A Fatal Weak Link (Special Teams!)
- 2025 Disaster: Blocked punt vs Panthers (WC), muffed punt vs Seahawks (NFCCG) = season-ending mistakes
- Changes Made: Fired ST coach Chase Blackburn, replaced kicker Joshua Karty with Harrison Mevis, hired Bubba Ventrone, signed Grant Stuard
- Still a Concern: Mevis has only 2 career 50+ yard FG attempts; Rams were 26th in ST DVOA
6. They Make the Super Bowl… and Lose
- 4 of 15 historical superteams reached the Super Bowl and lost
- Variance Reality: One game vs. another elite team = coin flip territory
- Rams Context: Even if everything goes right, a Super Bowl loss "counts just the same" as missing playoffs
The Math Behind the Madness: What 12.5% Really Means
ELI5 PROBABILITY TRANSLATION
The Rams’ 12.5% chance = 1 in 8
Comparison: That’s roughly the success rate of converting 4th-and-13 over the last 3 years
Simulation: If we played the 2026 season 8 times, the Rams would win once
The market is saying: "The Rams are the best team, but they’ll still probably lose."
Summary: Should You Bet on the Rams?
| Reasons for Optimism | Reasons for Caution |
|---|---|
| Elite roster on both sides | Only 2/15 superteams won historically |
| Myles Garrett + McDuffie + Watson = scary defense | Brutal NFC West schedule |
| Stafford coming off MVP year | QB age (38) + injury history |
| McVay’s coaching excellence | Special teams still unproven |
| Weaknesses addressed aggressively | Super Bowl variance = coin flip |
Bottom Line: The Rams are deserving favorites with a legitimate championship roster. But history screams caution—being the "best team on paper" in August rarely translates to a Lombardi Trophy in February.
FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
Q: If the Rams are such heavy favorites, why do they only have a 12.5% chance?
A: Because winning the Super Bowl is incredibly hard. Even the best team must: survive a 17-game gauntlet, stay healthy, win 3-4 playoff games against other elite teams, and win a single coin-flip Super Bowl. The 12.5% is actually huge—it means they’re 5x more likely to win than an average team (2.5%).
Q: What’s the biggest difference between the 2026 Rams and the 2002 Rams (who went 7-9)?
A: The 2002 Rams had Kurt Warner collapse (11 INTs, 3 TDs in 7 games) and massive injuries to stars (Pace, Williams, Faulk). The 2026 Rams have young stars entering prime (McDuffie, Watson, Verse before trade) and Myles Garrett in his prime, not aging veterans declining.
Q: Does the Myles Garrett trade make the Rams’ defense "all-time great" potential?
A: Yes, on paper. Pairing Garrett (DPOY) with Aaron Donald (if he returns) + Kobie Turner + Byron Young + McDuffie/Watson at CB creates a pass-rush/coverage synergy few offenses can solve. But "all-time great" requires health + chemistry + scheme fit—not just names.
Q: How much does the special teams issue actually matter?
A: Enormously. In 2025, two special teams plays (blocked punt, muffed punt) directly cost the Rams a playoff win and the NFC Championship. In a league where 1-2 plays decide games, a below-average special teams unit is a championship ceiling limiter.
Q: If I’m a Rams fan, should I be excited or worried?
A: Both—and that’s perfect. Excited because your team aggressively maximized its window with Stafford/McVay. Worried because history, health, variance, and schedule all conspire against even the best teams. The 2026 Rams are built to win now—and that’s all any fan can ask.
WANT MORE?
Listen to The Bill Barnwell Show podcast (weekly on ESPN Radio) for deeper NFL analysis, or check out Barnwell’s 2025 preseason predictions—where 0 of 68 ESPN experts picked the eventual Super Bowl participants (Seahawks/Patriots).
Article based on Bill Barnwell’s ESPN analysis: "2026 NFL season: Rams, superteams, and preseason favorites who won the Super Bowl" (Published August 10, 2026).