Old Farmer’s Almanac 2026: When Your State Finally Cools Off
The Old Farmer’s Almanac Fall 2026 Forecast: What to Expect Across the U.S.
Excited for fall? For some parts of the U.S.—largely in the interior—cooler weather may come a little later this year. (Marcus Jones via Getty Images)
What Is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?
Think of the Old Farmer’s Almanac like a really old, really popular weather diary. It’s been around since 1792 (that’s over 230 years!). Every year, it puts out a long-range forecast telling us what the weather might be like for the coming seasons.
Important Note: Long-range forecasts are not the same as your daily weather app. They’re more like educated guesses based on patterns from the past, the sun’s activity, and climate trends. The Almanac says it has an 80% accuracy rate, but meteorologists (weather scientists) always say: take it with a grain of salt. Things can change!
The Big Picture: A Tale of Two Falls
For fall 2026, the Almanac predicts two very different autumns depending on where you live:
| Region | Temperature Trend | Rainfall Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern U.S. & Pacific Coast | Cooler than average | Mixed (some wetter, some drier) |
| Nation’s Interior (Plains, Heartland, Deep South) | Warmer than average | Drier than average |
ELI5 Summary: If you live on the East Coast or West Coast, you’ll likely get that classic "sweater weather" feeling. If you live in the middle of the country, summer might overstay its welcome.
Region-by-Region Breakdown
Here’s what the Almanac says for each part of the country:
Northeast (New England, NY, PA, etc.)
- Temps: Below average
- Rain: Wetter than normal
- Expect a cool, damp start to fall.
Atlantic Corridor (Major East Coast cities: Boston, NYC, Philly, DC)
- Temps: ~1°F cooler than normal
- Rain: Drier overall
Appalachians & Southeast
- Temps: Cooler than average
- Rain: Below normal (mostly dry)
- Northern Florida: Cooler & drier
- Southern Florida: Cooler but wetter
Midwest
- Upper Midwest: Cool September → slightly warmer October
- Heartland: North = warmer, South = slightly cooler
- October: Could get noticeably wetter in parts
Texas & Oklahoma
- Northern areas: Slightly cooler + much wetter (up to 4" extra rain!)
- Southern Texas: Warmer than average
High Plains (Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, etc.)
- Warmer AND drier than normal all season
Colorado’s Rocky Mountains will be warmer and wetter this fall. (imageBROKER/Marek Uliasz via Getty Images)
Pacific Northwest (WA, OR, ID)
- One of the wettest forecasts in the country!
- Temps: Cooler than average
- September: Up to 3 extra inches of rain
Pacific Southwest (California, NV)
- September: Near normal temps
- October: Slightly cooler
- North: A bit more rain
- South: Drier
Desert Southwest (AZ, NM, southern UT)
- September: Warmer than average
- October: Cools down slightly
- Rain: Below average all season
Beyond the Lower 48: Alaska & Hawaii
Alaska
- Northern Alaska: Cooler than average
- Southern Alaska: Slightly warmer
- Overall: Drier than normal
- Bonus: Some northern spots could see early snowfall
Hawaii
- Both September & October: Cooler than average
- Eastern islands: Up to 4 extra inches of rain
- Watch out: Possible tropical storm in mid-September
In Hawaii, both September and October are expected to be cooler than average. (bodrumsurf / shutterstock)
Planning Leaf-Peeping Trips?
The Almanac also released a fall foliage map showing when leaves will peak in 2026. Since cooler temps often mean better colors, the East Coast and West Coast might have prime leaf-peeping conditions this year!
Related Reading:
Quick Summary: What You Need to Know
| Key Takeaway | Details |
|---|---|
| Two different falls | East/West Coasts = cool & classic; Interior = warm & extended summer |
| Rain varies a lot | PNW & North Texas = very wet; High Plains & Midwest = dry |
| Not a guarantee | Long-range forecasts = educated guesses, not promises |
| Almanac track record | Claims 80% accuracy using solar science, climatology & meteorology |
| Leaf peeping | Coasts may have better color shows this year |
FAQ: Your Fall 2026 Questions Answered
1. Should I book my fall vacation based on this forecast?
It’s a helpful planning tool, but don’t treat it like a guarantee. Weather can change. Book flexible tickets if possible, and check short-term forecasts (7-10 days out) as your trip approaches.
2. Why does the interior stay warm while coasts cool down?
It’s about air masses and jet stream patterns. The forecast suggests a pattern where cooler air settles near the oceans, while a "ridge" of high pressure keeps the middle of the country warmer and drier.
3. What does "cooler than average" actually mean?
Usually just 1-3°F below normal for that time of year. It’s not Arctic cold—just "grab a light jacket" weather instead of "still wearing shorts" weather.
4. How does the Almanac make these predictions?
They use a secret formula (really!) combining:
- Solar science (sunspot cycles)
- Climatology (historical weather patterns)
- Meteorology (current atmospheric conditions)
5. When will we know if they were right?
When the leaves start changing! September and October 2026 will tell the real story. Until then, it’s a fun conversation starter—and a decent reason to start browsing sweater sales.
Final Thought: Whether the Almanac nails it or not, fall is coming. Now you’ve got a sneak peek at what might be in store. Happy autumn planning!