BMW Championship Power Rankings: Favorites & Sleepers Revealed
BMW Championship Preview: Everything You Need to Know About This Week’s Playoff Showdown at Bellerive
Published 19 hours ago | 5-minute read | Written by Rob Bolton
What’s Happening This Week?
The BMW Championship – the second leg of the FedExCup Playoffs – tees off at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri. Think of it like the "Sweet 16" of golf playoffs: only the top 50 players made it this far, and they’re all fighting for a spot in the final 30 at the TOUR Championship.
Why This Matters (The Big Picture)
| If You Finish… | You Get… |
|---|---|
| Top 30 | • Ticket to the TOUR Championship (final playoff event) • Shot at the FedExCup title & massive bonus • Full PGA TOUR exemption through 2028 • Automatic entry into all three 2027 majors (Masters, U.S. Open, The Open) |
| Top 50 (just by showing up) | • Entry into all 2027 Signature Events (the biggest, richest tournaments) |
Key Takeaway: Making the top 50 is already a huge win. But everyone here wants to go further.
Bellerive Country Club: Old Course, New Tricks
A Quick History Lesson
- Opened: 1960 (designed by Robert Trent Jones)
- Last PGA TOUR visit: 2018 PGA Championship (won by Brooks Koepka)
- This week: 17 players from that 2018 field are back
- Fun fact: The course has been renovated multiple times by Rees Jones (the original designer’s son). This is the 5th time it’s hosted a top-tier event this century.
What’s Different Since 2018?
| Change | Details |
|---|---|
| Length | Now 7,448 yards (par 70) – that’s 132 yards longer than 2018 |
| Holes stretched | 14 of 18 holes are longer (but only 5 by more than 7 yards) |
| Unchanged holes | Par-4 15th (495 yds) & Par-3 16th (237 yds) – left alone because they’re already beasts |
| Greens | Completely redone with T-1 bentgrass (replaced old A-4), rolling at 12½ on the Stimpmeter (very fast!) |
| Rough | Thick fescue-bluegrass mix up to 4 inches high – miss the fairway, pay the price |
| Renovation time | 22 months of work on golf + non-golf areas |
ELI5 – Stimpmeter: A device that measures green speed. 12½ is fast – like putting on a hardwood floor vs. carpet. The ball keeps rolling… and rolling…
The Course Layout: What Players Are Up Against
The "Left Turn" Problem
- Almost every dogleg bends LEFT
- Favors players who hit a draw (right-to-left shot shape)
- Longest hitters have an advantage if they can shape it left
The Monster: Hole #17
- Only par-5 on the back nine
- New tee box added 27 yards (biggest stretch on the course)
- Plays 624 yards – longest hole on the property
- Twist: It bends RIGHT (opposite of almost everything else)
- Part of "The Ridge" – holes 14, 15, 16, 17 sit on elevated ground with awesome spectator views
Why Scoring Could Be Low
- 2018 PGA Championship average: 70.125 (basically par)
- Field was under par for the last 3 rounds
- Huge greens = easier targets for approach shots
- Level playing field: Great ball-strikers and great putters both have a chance
Pro Insight: "Expansive greens are welcoming, so despite their unfamiliarity, the guys who profile as ball-strikers that typically would have an edge must grapple with those who rely consistently on their putter. That’s exactly what you want on a neutral field." – Rob Bolton
Weather Forecast: Golf Gods Are Cooperating
| Day | Conditions | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Slight rain risk morning only | Possible early delays, but… |
| All 4 days | Highs in the 80s°F | Perfect golf weather |
| All 4 days | Minimal wind | No "guess the breeze" drama |
| Daylight | Ample (small field = faster rounds) | Every round should finish on time |
Bottom line: No weather excuses. Pure golf test.
What It Takes to Advance: The Bubble Watch
Only 30 move on. If you’re currently ranked 31st–50th in the FedExCup standings, you need a big week.
Click here for detailed "bubble scenarios" – what each player needs to crack the top 30
Your Weekly Golf Content Calendar (From Rob Bolton)
| Day | Content |
|---|---|
| Monday | Power Rankings – who’s hot, who’s not |
| Tuesday | Fantasy Insider • Expert Picks • Sleepers |
| Sunday | Points & Payouts • Next week’s Qualifiers |
| Every Tuesday | The Early Card newsletter (exclusive content!) – Sign up here |
Follow Rob: @RobBoltonGolf on X
Summary: The 5 Things to Remember
- 50 players. One course. 30 spots in the finale.
- Bellerive is longer, faster, and trickier than 2018 – but still favors scoring
- Right-to-left shot shape is king (except on the monster 17th)
- Weather is perfect – no excuses, pure skill
- The rewards are massive: 2027 majors, 2028 exemptions, FedExCup glory
This isn’t just a tournament. It’s a career-defining week for 50 guys.
FAQ: Your Burning Questions, Answered
Q: What’s a "Signature Event" and why do the top 50 care?
A: Signature Events are the PGA TOUR’s new premium tournaments (like the AT&T Pebble Beach, Genesis, etc.). They have bigger purses ($20M+), smaller fields (70-80 players), and more FedExCup points. Getting into all 2027 Signature Events = guaranteed money & status for the whole year.
Q: Why does the 17th hole matter so much?
A: It’s the only par-5 on the back nine, now 624 yards (longest on course), and it bends RIGHT when everything else bends left. It breaks the pattern – players can’t just hit their stock draw. It’ll separate the creative shot-makers from the one-dimensional players.
Q: What’s "The Ridge" and why do fans love it?
A: Holes 14, 15, 16, and 17 sit on a natural elevation ridge. It creates a natural amphitheater – fans can see multiple holes from one spot. Perfect for walking the course or setting up a chair with a view.
Q: How does the FedExCup Playoffs actually work?
A: Three events, shrinking fields:
- FedEx St. Jude (top 70) → Winner: Scottie Scheffler
- BMW Championship (top 50) → This week!
- TOUR Championship (top 30) → Final showdown
Points reset before the finale, so anyone in the top 30 can win the Cup.
Q: Can I watch this on TV/streaming?
A: Yes! The BMW Championship airs on Golf Channel / NBC / Peacock (check local listings for exact windows). Thursday–Friday: morning/afternoon windows. Weekend: afternoon network coverage.
Final Thought: Whether you’re a die-hard tracking FedExCup math or a casual fan watching for the drama, this is playoff golf at its purest – no cuts, no passengers, just the best 50 fighting for 30 golden tickets. Enjoy the ride!