Are Earthquakes Increasing? The Data Will Surprise You
Understanding Earthquakes: What’s Happening in 2026 and How They Work
Key Takeaway: Recent big earthquakes in Indonesia, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela have people wondering if Earth is shaking more than usual. The short answer? No — 2026 is within the normal range. What makes quakes deadly isn’t just their size, but where they hit and how prepared people are.
The Big Question: Is Earth Shaking More Than Before?
In the past month alone, three magnitude 7+ earthquakes struck:
- Indonesia (August)
- Colombia (August)
- Mexico (July)
Back in June, two powerful quakes seconds apart devastated northern Venezuela. After clusters like this, everyone asks: "Is the planet getting more active?"
Scientists at Al Jazeera looked at 10 years of earthquake data to find out. Here’s what they discovered.
2026’s 10 Largest Earthquakes So Far
By the Numbers: The USGS records about 20,000 earthquakes per year (roughly 55 per day). Most are too tiny to feel. Damage usually starts at magnitude 6+.
| Rank | Location | Magnitude | Date | Deaths |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philippines (off Mindanao) | 7.8 | June | 100+ |
| 2 | Venezuela | 7.5 | June | 6,300+ |
| 3 | Venezuela | 7.2 | June | (combined above) |
| 4 | Mexico | 7.4 | July | — |
| 5 | Colombia | 7.4 | August | — |
| 6 | Indonesia | 7.4 | August | — |
| 7–10 | Other locations | 7.0–7.3 | Various | — |
Important: The deadliest quakes this year weren’t the biggest — they were the ones that hit populated areas with vulnerable buildings (Venezuela).
10 Years of Data: Where Does 2026 Stand?
Scientists compared 2026 (through mid-August) to the previous decade (2016–2025):
| Metric | 10-Year Average | 2026 (to mid-August) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quakes magnitude 6+ | 133 per year | 91 so far | Slightly ahead of pace, but normal |
| Quakes magnitude 7+ | ~13 per year | 11 so far | Within normal range |
| Quakes magnitude 8+ | Rare | 0 | None this year |
Key Insight: The number of quakes isn’t unusual. What matters is location, depth, building quality, and population density. The deadliest quakes of the past decade weren’t the largest — they struck under cities.
Is There an "Earthquake Season"?
No. Earthquakes happen all year round with no seasonal pattern.
Why?
- Tectonic stress builds over decades or centuries
- It’s not tied to weather, seasons, or a 12-month cycle
- Aftershocks can continue for months or years after a big quake
What scientists DO instead of predicting:
- Calculate probabilities — "There’s a X% chance of a big quake here in the next 30 years"
- Create building codes based on those probabilities
- Run early warning systems that alert people seconds after a quake starts (not before)
How Do Earthquakes Happen? (ELI5 Version)
Imagine Earth’s crust like a giant cracked eggshell floating on hot, slow-moving caramel (the mantle).
The Step-by-Step Process:
- Tectonic Plates — Earth’s outer shell is broken into ~15 giant puzzle pieces (~100 km thick)
- Constant Motion — Plates move a few centimeters per year (like fingernail growth)
- Locked Edges — Plate edges get stuck on each other, building up enormous stress
- The Snap — Eventually the rock breaks along a fault (a crack in the crust)
- Energy Release — Stored energy explodes outward as seismic waves → the ground shakes!
Fun Fact: Some faults are well-mapped. Others are only discovered when they rupture.
Where Do Earthquakes Happen?
1. The Pacific Ring of Fire
- 90% of world’s earthquakes happen here
- Horseshoe shape: Western Americas → Russia → Southeast Asia → New Zealand
- Includes: Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Chile, Alaska, California
2. The Alpide Belt
- 17% of largest quakes
- Stretches: Java → Himalayas → Turkey → Mediterranean
3. Everywhere Else
- Rare quakes on ancient faults far from plate boundaries
- Example: The 1811–1812 New Madrid quakes in Missouri, USA
How Are Earthquakes Measured?
Scientists use the Moment Magnitude Scale (not the old "Richter scale"). It measures energy released at the source.
The Logarithmic Scale — What It Really Means:
| Magnitude | Category | Ground Shaking vs. Mag 4 | Energy vs. Mag 4 | Effects |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0–4.9 | Light | 1× (baseline) | 1× | Felt, minor damage |
| 5.0 | Moderate | 10× more | 32× more | Damage to weak buildings |
| 6.0 | Strong | 100× more | ~1,000× more | Major damage in populated areas |
| 7.0 | Major | 1,000× more | ~32,000× more | Widespread destruction, loss of life |
| 8.0+ | Great | 10,000×+ more | ~1,000,000×+ more | Near-total destruction over huge area |
Remember: Each whole number jump = 10× more shaking and ~32× more energy!
What Actually Determines Death & Destruction?
- Magnitude
- Depth (shallow = worse)
- Distance to cities
- Soil type (soft soil amplifies shaking)
- Building quality
- Secondary disasters (tsunamis, landslides, fires)
Largest Earthquakes Ever Recorded
| Rank | Magnitude | Location | Date | Notable Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9.5 | Valdivia, Chile | May 22, 1960 | Pacific-wide tsunami |
| 2 | 9.2 | Prince William Sound, Alaska | March 27, 1964 | Massive landslides, tsunami |
| 3 | 9.1–9.3 | Sumatra, Indonesia | Dec 26, 2004 | 228,000+ deaths from Indian Ocean tsunami |
Note: A magnitude 9 releases ~1,000× more energy than a magnitude 7!
Summary: What You Need to Know
- 2026 is normal — quake counts are within the 10-year average
- Deadly ≠ Biggest — location, depth, and building safety matter most
- No earthquake season — they strike randomly, year-round
- Plates move slowly, snap suddenly — stress builds for decades, releases in seconds
- Ring of Fire = hotspot — 90% of quakes happen there
- Magnitude is logarithmic — Mag 7 isn’t "a bit bigger" than Mag 6 — it’s 10× the shaking
- Preparation saves lives — building codes, early warnings, and drills work
FAQ: Your Earthquake Questions Answered
Can scientists predict exactly when an earthquake will happen?
No. They can’t predict when. They can forecast probabilities over decades (e.g., "30% chance of Mag 7+ in this zone in 30 years"). This guides building codes.
Why do some magnitude 7 quakes kill thousands while others kill no one?
Location, depth, and preparation. A deep quake in the ocean harms few. A shallow quake under a city with old buildings kills many. Venezuela’s June quakes were shallow and hit vulnerable areas.
Is the "Ring of Fire" actually on fire?
No! It’s a zone of volcanoes and faults circling the Pacific. "Fire" refers to volcanoes. It’s the most seismically active place on Earth.
What’s the difference between magnitude and intensity?
- Magnitude = energy released at the source (one number per quake)
- Intensity = how hard it feels at a specific location (varies by distance, soil, building)
Should I worry if I live near a fault line?
Be prepared, not scared. You can’t stop quakes, but you can:
- Secure heavy furniture
- Have an emergency kit & plan
- Practice "Drop, Cover, Hold On"
- Ensure your home meets modern codes
Final Thought: Earthquakes are a natural part of our dynamic planet. We can’t stop them — but with science, engineering, and preparation, we can survive them.