Thursday MLB Best Bets: Fade Holmes & Braves in Chicago
MLB Betting Guide for Thursday, August 20, 2026
Written by Derek Carty | ESPN Fantasy Baseball Contributor | Four-time LABR & Tout Wars Champion
All projections powered by THE BAT X — a system using methods similar to MLB front offices
What Is This Guide?
Imagine you have a super-smart robot friend who watches every baseball game, checks the weather, studies the umpires, knows how each ballpark plays, and even tracks how catchers frame pitches. This robot (called THE BAT X) crunches all that data to tell you: "Hey, this bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbook thinks."
This guide shares that robot’s best picks for Thursday’s games — explained simply, so you can decide if you want to follow along.
How to Read These Recommendations (ELI5 Style)
Before we dive in, let’s decode the lingo:
| Term | Simple Meaning |
|---|---|
| Prop Bet | A bet on a specific player stat (like "Will Cal Raleigh hit a home run?") instead of who wins the game. |
| OVER / UNDER | You’re betting the player will do more (OVER) or less (UNDER) than the listed number. |
| Odds (e.g., +423, -116) | How much you win on a $100 bet. Plus (+) = underdog (win more than $100). Minus (-) = favorite (bet more to win $100). |
| Projected Chance | THE BAT X’s calculated probability this bet wins (based on 10,000+ simulations). |
| Expected Value (EV) | The golden number. If you bet $1 on this 100 times, this is your average profit per $100 wagered. Higher EV = better bet. |
KEY TAKEAWAY: Don’t just look at "chance to win." A 20% chance with +423 odds can be way more profitable than a 55% chance with -110 odds. EV combines both into one "quality score."
Thursday’s Top Batter Prop Bets
These are the best hitter bets THE BAT X found for Thursday. Each shows: Player | Bet | Projected Win % | EV (Profit per $100)
1. Cal Raleigh (SEA) — OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+423)
- 20% chance to hit a HR | EV: $5.91
- Why: Raleigh has legit power, and the matchup/ballpark favor the long ball.
2. JJ Bleday (OAK) — OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+407)
- 21% chance | EV: $6.52
- Why: Sneaky power + favorable pitcher matchup = solid value at these odds.
3. Bryce Eldridge (SF) — OVER 0.5 RBI (+250)
- 34% chance | EV: $19.11 HIGHEST EV OF THE DAY
- Why: The rookie is seeing the ball well, and the lineup spot gives him RBI chances.
4. Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — OVER 0.5 RBI (+230)
- 35% chance | EV: $16.19
- Why: Elite talent + good spot in order + matchup edge = strong value.
5. Mike Trout (LAA) — OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI Combined (+110)
- 55% chance | EV: $15.94
- Why: The highest probability play on the board. Trout does a little of everything.
Thursday’s Top Pitcher Prop Bets
Best pitcher stat bets for Thursday:
1. Gerrit Cole (NYY) — UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-116)
- 62% chance | EV: $18.33 TOP PITCHER EV
- Why: Facing a contact-heavy lineup; Cole’s K-rate has dipped slightly this year.
2. Randy Dobnak (KC) — UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)
- 60% chance | EV: $13.91
- Why: Dobnak pitches to contact. 3.5 Ks is a tough bar for his style.
3. Grant Holmes (ATL) — OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+122)
- 50% chance | EV: $10.60
- Why: Struggling with command lately; opponent hits righties hard.
4. Shane Bieber (TOR) — UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+101)
- 54% chance | EV: $9.02
- Why: Post-injury Bieber isn’t missing bats like old times. Low K upside today.
5. Andrew Alvarez (WSH) — UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-124)
- 60% chance | EV: $10.69
- Why: Rookie still finding his footing; opponent doesn’t strike out much.
Team Projections — The Big Picture
THE BAT X simulates every game 10,000+ times to project:
- Moneyline (who wins)
- Run Line (spread betting)
- Game Total (over/under runs)
Best Positive Value Spots (Green Flags)
| Game | Pitcher | Bet Type | Projected Edge | Why It Stands Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ TB | Shane Bieber | Moneyline (+149) | +17.6% EV | Bieber undervalued vs. Rays’ struggles vs. lefties |
| TOR @ TB | Shane Bieber | Run Line (+1.0 / -109) | +11.4% EV | Extra run cushion makes this even safer |
| TOR @ TB | Shane Bieber | Game Total OVER 7.5 | +3.7% EV | Both offenses underrated; ballpark plays up |
| SEA @ MIL | George Kirby | Game Total OVER 8.0 | +6.1% EV | Hitter-friendly park + two solid offenses |
| NYY @ BAL | Gerrit Cole | Game Total OVER 8.0 | +6.6% EV | AL East rivalry + warm weather = runs |
| TEX @ WSH | Jacob deGrom | Game Total UNDER | +9.4% EV | deGrom + weak Nats offense = pitcher’s duel |
Negative Value Traps (Red Flags — Avoid These Sides)
| Game | Pitcher | Bet Type | Negative EV | Why to Stay Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB vs TOR | Ian Seymour | Run Line (-1.0) | -22.9% EV | Public overbetting the Rays ace |
| WSH vs TEX | Andrew Alvarez | Game Total OVER | -17.5% EV | deGrom on other side kills run potential |
| CIN vs STL | Brady Singer | Game Total UNDER | -17.9% EV | Great American Ball Park + Cardinals offense |
| ATL @ CWS | Grant Holmes | Moneyline (-106) | -9.0% EV | Holmes struggling; White Sox feisty at home |
NOTE: Full table has 16 games. Only the strongest edges (|EV| > 5%) are shown above. Always shop lines at multiple books!
Top Betting Trends (For Context Only)
IMPORTANT: Trends are backward-looking. They show what happened, not what will happen. Use as flavor, not main course.
| Trend | Record | ROI | Current Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox Team Total OVER (Home) | 4-1 last 5 | +58% | 4.5 runs @ +114 |
| Braves Team Total UNDER (Road) | 11-0 last 11 | +82% | 4.5 runs @ -135 |
| Cardinals 1st 5 Innings Run Line | 9-0 straight | +97% | -0.5 @ +114 |
| Brewers 1st 5 Innings Team Total OVER (Home) | 8-0 straight | +88% | 2.5 runs @ +124 |
ELI5: "The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in 9 straight games." Cool stat — but today’s pitcher, matchup, and lineup matter way more.
Important Reminders (Read Before Betting)
CALLOUT: BET RESPONSIBLY
- Never bet money you can’t afford to lose. This is entertainment, not income.
- EV is an average over thousands of bets. You will have losing days — even on +EV plays.
- Shop lines! +423 at one book might be +400 at another. That difference kills long-term profit.
- Track your bets. Use a spreadsheet. Review monthly. Learn from mistakes.
- No "lock" exists. 62% chance means 38% chance you lose. Accept variance.
Summary
| Category | Top Play | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|
| Best Batter EV | Bryce Eldridge OVER 0.5 RBI (+250) | $19.11 EV (34% win prob) |
| Best Pitcher EV | Gerrit Cole UNDER 6.5 K (-116) | $18.33 EV (62% win prob) |
| Best Team Value | Shane Bieber Moneyline (+149) | +17.6% EV vs. Rays |
| Highest Probability | Mike Trout OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+110) | 55% win prob ($15.94 EV) |
| Trend to Watch | Cardinals F5 Run Line | 9-0 streak, +97% ROI |
Bottom line: THE BAT X sees real edges on Eldridge, Cole, and Bieber today. The trends are fun, but the projections drive the bus.
FAQ
1. What does "+423" mean in plain English?
If you bet $100 on Cal Raleigh to hit a HR and he does, you win $423 profit (plus your $100 back = $523 total). The "+" means he’s the underdog — sportsbooks think it’s unlikely.
2. Why bet a 20% chance? That sounds terrible!
Because the payout is huge. If you make this bet 100 times at $1 each:
- You lose 80 times (-$80)
- You win 20 times at +423 → 20 × $4.23 = +$84.60
- Net profit: ~$4.60 per $100 wagered → That’s the $5.91 EV (simulation-adjusted). Math > feelings.
3. What is "THE BAT X" exactly?
A projection system Derek Carty built using Statcast data, park factors, weather, umpire tendencies, catcher framing, bullpen quality, and more — similar to what MLB teams use internally. It simulates every at-bat, every pitch, every game thousands of times.
4. Should I bet all these plays?
No. Pick the ones that fit your bankroll, risk tolerance, and where you can get the best odds. Quality > quantity. One +EV bet is better than five -EV bets.
5. Where can I see projections for every player, every game?
Visit EV Analytics — Derek’s site with full THE BAT X projections, updated daily.
Good luck Thursday! Remember: the goal isn’t to win every bet — it’s to make positive EV decisions consistently. That’s how you win long-term.