Alaska’s 2026 Senate Primary: Why Democrats Are Feeling Hopeful

The Big Picture: A Sneak Peek at November

Something unusual happened in Alaska on Tuesday. Usually, primary elections are just the warm-up—they pick who might run in the real election later. But in Alaska’s Senate race, we basically got a preview of the November showdown.

Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola and Republican Senator Dan Sullivan are the two main candidates. And because of Alaska’s special voting rules—and because no other serious candidates showed up—these two will almost certainly face off again in November.

Important Point: This primary gave us real votes, not just polls. And the numbers look encouraging for Democrats.

How Alaska’s Voting System Works (ELI5 Version)

Alaska doesn’t do primaries like most states. Here’s the simple version:

1. Everyone runs together — Republicans, Democrats, independents, everyone on one ballot
2. Top four move on — The four candidates with the most votes advance to November
3. Ranked-choice voting in November — Voters rank candidates 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th. If nobody gets 50%+ first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their voters’ second choices get counted. This continues until someone wins a majority.

Why this matters: It means candidates need broad appeal, not just support from their party’s base.

The Numbers: What Happened Tuesday?

With about 80% of votes counted, here’s the scoreboard:

Key Takeaways from the Results

• Peltola is close to 50% — And most remaining votes are advance/mail ballots, which she’s been winning so far
• Democrats might have gotten a majority overall — 49.8% voted for Democratic candidates vs. ~45% for Republicans
• Sullivan is under 43% — That’s low for an incumbent senator seeking re-election
• Over 57% voted for someone else — Most primary voters chose alternatives to the sitting senator

The "Other Dan Sullivan" Situation

Here’s a weird twist: There were two Dan Sullivans on the ballot.

• Dan Sullivan #1: The Republican incumbent senator
• Dan Sullivan #2: A different guy with no party affiliation listed

Republicans actually tried to keep the second Dan Sullivan off the ballot, claiming he’d confuse voters and steal votes from the senator. But he got 2.4% and will likely make the top four.

Interesting Detail: The second Dan Sullivan did better in Democratic-leaning areas. This suggests some Democratic voters picked him strategically—maybe hoping he’d advance and split the Republican vote in November, but planning to vote for Peltola anyway.

Why This Primary Might Actually Predict November

Primaries aren’t usually predictive. But Alaska might be different this time. Here’s why:

1. High Turnout = More Representative Electorate

• 2026 Primary: ~160,000 votes (≈60% of 2022 midterm turnout)
• 2024 Primary: ~110,000 votes (only ≈33% of presidential election turnout)

Translation: This primary’s voters look a lot more like November’s voters than the 2024 primary did.

2. History Shows Primary ≠ General (But Sometimes It Does)

• 2024: Peltola got 51% in primary → lost in November
• 2022: Republicans led primary 61%-37% → Peltola won anyway

3. 2026 Looks Different for Democrats

• Higher Democratic enthusiasm nationally
• Midterm electorates typically favor the party out of the White House
• Trump won Alaska by double-digits in 2024, but…

Why Alaska Matters for the Senate

Democrats need to flip at least two Senate seats in states Trump won by double-digits to have a shot at a majority. The top targets:

1. Alaska ← We are here
2. Iowa
3. Ohio
4. Texas

All four currently look competitive. Tuesday’s results suggest Alaska is genuinely in play.

What Could Still Change?

Callout: Don’t Pop the Champagne Yet

• Remaining 20% of votes could shift margins
• November electorate will be different (higher turnout, different motivations)
• Ranked-choice voting means second-choice votes matter hugely
• Sullivan could consolidate Republican voters who backed others in the primary
• National political environment could shift

Summary: What We Learned

1. Peltola starts strong — Leading the incumbent by 5+ points with votes still coming
2. Democratic coalition held — Near-majority in primary; Peltola attracted Republican-leaning voters
3. Sullivan has work to do — Sub-43% for an incumbent is a warning sign
4. High turnout = better signal — This primary resembled a general election more than usual
5. Alaska is a real battleground — One of the few Trump+ states where Democrats have a credible path

FAQ: Your Questions Answered

What is ranked-choice voting, and how does it work in November?

Simple version: You rank candidates 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th. If nobody gets 50%+ of first choices, the last-place candidate is eliminated. Their voters’ second choices get redistributed. This repeats until someone hits a majority. It rewards candidates with broad appeal.

Why were there two Dan Sullivans on the ballot?

Alaska’s open primary lets anyone run. A second man named Dan Sullivan (no party listed) qualified. Republicans feared he’d siphon votes from the senator via name confusion. He got 2.4% and will likely advance to November.

Does winning the primary mean Peltola will win in November?

Not necessarily. In 2024, she won the primary with 51% but lost the general. However, this year’s primary turnout was much higher (60% of midterm vs. 33% of presidential), making it a better predictor.

Why does Alaska matter for Senate control?

Democrats need to win in states Trump carried heavily. Alaska is one of only four such states (with Iowa, Ohio, Texas) where they have a plausible chance. Winning here could be the difference between minority and majority.

What happens to the "other" candidates’ voters in November?

Their voters’ second choices become crucial. If the other Dan Sullivan’s voters rank Sullivan #1 second, he gains. If they rank Peltola second, she gains. This is where the election could be decided.

Article based on CNN reporting with ~80% of primary votes counted. Final results may shift margins slightly.