Bullpen Report: Scott & Chapman’s Fantasy Save Stock Soars
Fantasy Baseball Closer & Reliever Guide: Making Sense of the Bullpen Chaos
It’s been a wild week in MLB bullpens! Let’s break down who’s closing games, who’s struggling, and who you should pick up for your fantasy team—all explained simply.
What You Need to Know Right Now (The Big News)
Important: The closer landscape changes fast. Here are the headline moves from the past week:
Edwin Díaz (LAD) – Back on the Injured List
- What happened: Díaz returned from elbow surgery but struggled in Colorado (3 earned runs allowed).
- Red flag: His fastball topped out at only 93 mph (down from his usual elite velocity).
- Good news: MRI was clean—no structural damage.
- For now: Tanner Scott is the Dodgers’ closer. He’s been awesome: 18-of-20 saves, 0.92 WHIP, 26.4% K-BB rate.
Daniel Palencia (CHC) – Activated Friday, But No Set Role
- Cubs are easing him back. Jacob Webb is currently the trusted closer.
- Palencia might get saves later, but not guaranteed.
Félix Bautista (BAL) – Starting Rehab Assignment Soon
- The dominant closer is on his way back. Stash him if you have an IL spot.
Justin Martinez (ARI) – Activated, Looked Sharp
- Scoreless appearance in Boston. Could see save chances soon if he stays healthy and throws strikes.
ELI5: How Do Teams Decide Who Gets Saves? (Leverage Pathways)
Not every team uses a traditional "closer." Here are the four main systems managers use:
| Label | What It Means (Simple Version) |
|---|---|
| Mostly Linear | Traditional setup: 7th inning guy → 8th inning guy → Closer in the 9th. Predictable. |
| Primary Save Share | One main closer, but he also gets used in key matchups earlier. Other relievers steal some saves. |
| Shared Saves | Two (or more) relievers split saves—often by lefty/righty matchups or who’s rested. |
| Fluid | No named closer. Manager mixes and matches. Hard to predict for fantasy. |
Pro Tip: Knowing a team’s "pathway" helps you guess who gets the next save chance.
American League Leverage Pathways & Key Relievers
| Team | Pathway | Closer (Primary) | Stopper / High-Leverage | Stealth / Ancillary Option |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | Primary Save Share | Andrew Kittredge | Yennier Cano | Cam Sanders |
| Boston | Mostly Linear | Aroldis Chapman | Tyron Guerrero | Erik Miller |
| Chicago White Sox | Shared Saves | Grant Taylor | Bryan Hudson | Jordan Hicks |
| Cleveland | Mostly Linear | Cade Smith | Hunter Gaddis | Colin Holderman |
| Detroit | Mostly Linear | Kenley Jansen | Kyle Finnegan | Drew Sommers |
| Houston | Mostly Linear | Josh Hader | Bryan Abreu | Steven Okert |
| Kansas City | Primary Save Share | Steven Cruz | Nate Pearson | John Schreiber |
| Los Angeles Angels | Primary Save Share | Ben Joyce | Samy Natera Jr. | José Fermin |
| Minnesota | Mostly Linear | Yoendrys Gómez | Andrew Morris | Jeff Hoffman |
| New York Yankees | Mostly Linear | David Bednar | Paul Blackburn | Brent Headrick |
| Oakland | Mostly Linear | Andrés Muñoz | Eduard Bazardo | Gabe Speier |
| Seattle | Mostly Linear | Bryan Baker | Kevin Kelly | Garrett Cleavinger |
| Tampa Bay | Mostly Linear | Jacob Latz | Jakob Junis | Tyler Alexander |
| Texas | Primary Save Share | Hogan Harris | Luis Medina | Elvis Alvarado |
| Toronto | Mostly Linear | Louis Varland | Tyler Rogers | Braydon Fisher |
National League Leverage Pathways & Key Relievers
| Team | Pathway | Closer (Primary) | Stopper / High-Leverage | Stealth / Ancillary Option |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Shared Saves | Jonathan Loáisiga | Brandyn Garcia | Justin Martinez |
| Atlanta | Mostly Linear | Raisel Iglesias | Dylan Lee | Didier Fuentes |
| Chicago Cubs | Primary Save Share | Jacob Webb | Daniel Palencia | Ryan Zeferjahn |
| Cincinnati | Mostly Linear | Emilio Pagán | Brock Burke | Luis Mey |
| Colorado | Mostly Linear | Jordan Romano | Brennan Bernardino | Jaden Hill |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Primary Save Share | Tanner Scott | Edgardo Henriquez | Jack Dreyer |
| Miami | Mostly Linear | Pete Fairbanks | Michael Petersen | Calvin Faucher |
| Milwaukee | Mostly Linear | Trevor Megill | Aaron Ashby | Chad Patrick |
| New York Mets | Primary Save Share | Kodai Senga | Daniel Duarte | Nate Lavender |
| Philadelphia | Mostly Linear | Jhoan Duran | Jonathan Bowlan | Brooks Raley |
| Pittsburgh | Shared Saves | Mason Montgomery | Luke Weaver | Gregory Soto |
| San Diego | Mostly Linear | Riley O’Brien | George Soriano | Ryne Stanek |
| San Francisco | Mostly Linear | Mason Miller | Adrian Morejon | Jeremiah Estrada |
| St. Louis | Primary Save Share | Dylan Smith | Keaton Winn | Jason Foley |
| Washington | Shared Saves | Clayton Beeter | Orlando Ribalta | Yovanny Cruz |
Stock Up: Relievers Trending Way Up
Ben Joyce (LAA)
- 0 runs allowed in first 6 appearances.
- No baserunners in last 4 outings.
- 3 straight saves. He’s throwing gas and throwing strikes.
Grant Taylor (CHW)
- 0.00 ERA in August (11.1 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 10 K, 3 BB).
- Leads White Sox with 3 saves in second half.
- Role can be frustrating, but production is real.
Brayan Bello (BOS) – Not a closer, but valuable!
- Over last 5 relief/bulk appearances: 3 wins, 1 save, 13 K, 3 BB, 0.85 WHIP, 17.2 IP.
- Great for ratios and vulture wins in deep leagues.
Closer Concerns: Guys to Watch Closely
Aroldis Chapman (BOS)
- No save since Aug 1.
- Last 4 outings: 5 of 17 batters reached base (3 hits, 2 BB), 3 runs (2 ER), only 3 K.
- Post-ASB: 1.15 WHIP, 13% walk rate, only 51.4% strikes thrown.
- SIERA 3.36 suggests regression coming. Monitor closely.
Steven Cruz (KC)
- Leads Royals with 5 saves in second half (16 app, 0.94 WHIP, 11 K, 2 BB).
- But: 85.7% contact rate, only 8.1% swinging-strike rate.
- xERA 3.26, SIERA 3.61 — luck may run out. Sell high if you can.
Emilio Pagán (CIN)
- Hamstring + hand issues.
- 9-for-9 saves in 2nd half, 0.69 WHIP, 28% K-BB.
- But: 97.6% strand rate (unsustainable), Reds fading in standings.
- Risk: Could be shut down or used less to protect for 2027.
Clayton Beeter (WSH)
- 5 of team’s 6 second-half saves, but last save Aug 7.
- Team may use him as "fireman" (highest leverage), not strict closer.
- 2nd half: 1.13 WHIP, 4.8% K-BB, 4.73 SIERA.
- Fantasy value drops if he stops getting save chances.
Save Streamers (Pick Up for This Week’s Saves)
Guys in shared/ancillary roles who might snag a save or two.
| American League | National League |
|---|---|
| Steven Cruz (KC) | Mason Montgomery & Luke Weaver (PIT) |
| Bryan Hudson, Jordan Hicks (CHW) | Daniel Duarte (NYM) |
| Aaron Ashby (MIL) |
Save Stashes (Hold for Future Closer Roles)
Injured or buried guys who could become closers later.
| American League | National League |
|---|---|
| Cam Sanders, Félix Bautista (BAL) | Justin Martinez (ARI) |
| Carlos Duran (KC) | Luis Mey (CIN) |
| Yovanny Cruz (WSH) |
Stash Alert: Félix Bautista and Justin Martinez are the highest-upside stashes here. Grab them if you have IL/bench space.
Season Leaderboards (Through Games of Aug 17)
Saves Leaders (2026 Season)
| Rank | Player | Saves | Last 14 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Baker | 36 | 4 |
| 2 | Riley O’Brien | 32 | 5 |
| 3 | Mason Miller | 31 | 3 |
| 3 | Cade Smith | 31 | — |
| 5 | David Bednar | 29 | 4 |
| 6 | Louis Varland | 28 | 4 |
| 6 | Jhoan Duran | 28 | 3 |
| 8 | Aroldis Chapman | 27 | — |
| 9 | Raisel Iglesias | 25 | — |
| 10 | Jacob Latz | 24 | 3 |
Holds Leaders (2026 Season)
| Rank | Player | Holds | Last 14 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Lee | 28 | 4 |
| 2 | Tyler Rogers | 26 | — |
| 3 | Kevin Kelly | 25 | — |
| 4 | Hunter Gaddis | 24 | — |
| 4 | Ryne Stanek | 24 | 4 |
| 4 | Eduard Bazardo | 24 | — |
SOLDS Leaders (Saves + Holds Combined)
| Rank | Player | SOLDS | Last 14 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Baker | 38 | 4 |
| 2 | Riley O’Brien | 33 | 5 |
| 2 | Louie Varland | 33 | 4 |
| 4 | Mason Miller | 31 | — |
| 4 | Cade Smith | 31 | — |
| 6 | Tanner Scott | 30 | 7 Huge recent surge |
| 7 | Tyler Rogers | 30 | 4 |
| 8 | David Bednar | 29 | 4 |
Ratio Relievers: Protect Your ERA/WHIP & Steal Wins
Multi-inning/bridge guys who don’t close but help your ratios and grab random wins.
- Steven Okert (HOU) — Lefty specialist, elite K-BB.
- Brayan Bello (BOS) — Bulk innings, dominant lately (see Stock Up).
- Bradgley Rodriguez (SD) — Emerging multi-inning weapon.
- Daniel Duarte (NYM) — 0.46 WHIP, 7 K, 3 BB in last 8.2 IP (8 G, 0 runs). Deep-league gold.
Summary: Your Action Plan This Week
- Drop/bench Aroldis Chapman until he throws more strikes.
- Start Ben Joyce & Grant Taylor with confidence—they’re rolling.
- Stash Félix Bautista & Justin Martinez on IL/bench immediately.
- Stream saves from: Montgomery/Weaver (PIT), Duarte (NYM), Ashby (MIL).
- Protect ratios with Bello, Okert, Rodriguez, Duarte.
- Monitor Edwin Díaz — velocity return = closer return.
- Don’t overthink "Fluid" teams — just stream the hot hand.
FAQ: Your Bullpen Questions Answered
1. What does "K-BB%" mean and why does it matter?
K-BB% = Strikeout Rate minus Walk Rate. It’s the single best simple stat for reliever skill. Above 20% is elite. It predicts future ERA better than ERA itself. Ben Joyce (26.4%), Tanner Scott (26.4%), and Mason Montgomery (46.9%!) are studs here.
2. My closer got hurt. Should I drop him for a hot waiver guy?
If he’s out 2+ weeks (IL stint) and you’re in a shallow league → Yes, drop for a Tanner Scott / Ben Joyce type.
If he’s day-to-day or you have an IL spot → Stash him. Closers like Díaz, Bautista, Pagán are too valuable to lose for a 2-week fill-in.
3. What’s a "Stopper/HLR" vs a "Closer"?
- Closer: Pitches the 9th inning with a lead (gets the save).
- Stopper/HLR (High-Leverage Reliever): Pitches the toughest inning (often 7th or 8th) with runners on base, regardless of score. They get holds, not saves. In "Mostly Linear" teams, the Stopper is the 8th-inning guy. In "Shared/Fluid" teams, the Stopper often gets the save if the matchup fits.
4. Why is Mason Montgomery listed as a "Closer (Primary)" for Pittsburgh but the pathway is "Shared Saves"?
Because he’s the primary option, but Luke Weaver (veteran lefty) and Gregory Soto (hard-throwing lefty) will steal saves based on matchups (lefty hitters due up) or rest. Montgomery gets the most, but not all.
5. What is "SIERA" and "xERA"? Should I care?
- SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): Estimates ERA based on K, BB, GB% — strips out luck.
- xERA (Expected ERA): Uses Statcast (exit velo, launch angle) to predict what ERA should be.
- Yes, care! If ERA << SIERA/xERA (like Pagán’s 2.08 ERA vs 3.61 SIERA), regression is coming. If ERA >> xERA, better days ahead.
Statistical Credits: FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball.
For daily updates, check out Reliever Recon (Patreon) and Closer Monkey.
Rankings blend current performance + rest-of-season projection. Trust your gut—if you believe in a guy, roster him!