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Skenes’ Scary Ceiling: ‘Room to Grow’ Despite Struggles

Paul Skenes: The Young Superstar Pitcher Going Through a Tough Stretch

TL;DR Paul Skenes is a 24-year-old pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates who had one of the best starts to a career in baseball history. Right now, he’s struggling with control (throwing too many "walks"), but his teammates and coaches say this is normal—even for superstars. He’s still one of the best in the game, just working through a rough patch.


Who Is Paul Skenes?

Imagine a kid who grows up loving baseball, works incredibly hard, and suddenly becomes one of the best players in the world before he can even rent a car without extra fees. That’s Paul Skenes.

  • Age: 24 (turned 24 in 2026)
  • Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Position: Starting Pitcher (the player who throws the ball to start each play)
  • Throws: Right-handed
  • Nickname: "The Professor" (because he studies the game like a scientist)

The Amazing Start to His Career

Most players take years to become great. Skenes? He skipped the line.

Year 1 (2024): Rookie Sensation

  • Won NL Rookie of the Year (best first-year player in the National League)
  • Batters could barely hit the ball against him
  • His "arsenal" (collection of different pitches) was described as "unhittable"

Year 2 (2025): The Best of the Best

  • Won the NL Cy Young Award (given to the best pitcher in the entire league)
  • Career ERA (Earned Run Average) of 1.96 — that means for every 9 innings he pitched, the other team scored less than 2 runs on average
  • Became one of the "faces of the game" — a superstar everyone knows

What is ERA?
Think of it like a "runs allowed per game" score. Lower is better. A 1.96 ERA is insanely good. Like, "video game numbers" good.


What’s Happening Now? (The Struggle)

Since mid-May 2026, things have gotten… tricky.

The Recent Numbers Don’t Look Like "Skenes"

Stat Career Start (2024-25) Since May 17, 2026
ERA 1.96 5.05
Walks per game Very few 4 walks in 3 of last 4 starts
Strike percentage Usually 60%+ Only 46 of 81 pitches (57%) for strikes in last game

The Latest Game (vs. Detroit Tigers)

  • Pitched 4⅓ innings (usually goes 6-7+)
  • Allowed 3 runs on 4 hits
  • 4 walks (tying his season high)
  • 5 strikeouts (still good!)
  • Velocity (speed): Back to upper 90s mph after dipping to 95 mph last week

Important Context: Even in this "bad" stretch, he’s still top 10 in MLB in strikeouts (171) and his 3.95 ERA ranks in the top 40 among all pitchers. "Bad" for Skenes is still "really good" for almost everyone else.


Breaking Down the Problem: Why Is He Struggling?

1. The Walk Problem

  • In his first 77 career games: 4+ walks only 5 times
  • In his last 4 starts: 4+ walks 3 times
  • Skenes says: "Nobody wants to go out there and walk anybody. Nobody is trying to."

2. Command vs. Stuff

  • "Stuff" = how nasty your pitches are (speed, movement, spin) — this is still elite
  • "Command" = ability to put the ball exactly where you want it — this has slipped

3. The Adjustment Period

Hitters have spent a year studying him on video. They know:

  • What pitches he throws in certain counts
  • Where he tends to miss
  • How to lay off his "chase" pitches (tempting balls just outside the strike zone)

Think of it like Rock-Paper-Scissors: Skenes won 50 games in a row throwing "Rock." Now everyone throws "Paper." He has to learn when to throw "Scissors."


What the Experts and Teammates Say

Manager Don Kelly

  • Pulled Skenes after 81 pitches in the 5th inning
  • Protecting his young ace from overworking during a slump

Veteran Teammate Brandon Lowe

"I think the world’s been spoiled on who Paul Skenes really is. He had probably the best starting stretch to a career ever. And now he’s not the greatest pitcher on the face of the planet for a few months, and people were worried and freaking out a bit."

"There’s a reason why there’s not going to be a guy that pitches for 10 years and wins 10 Cy Youngs. People adapt, people adjust."

The Fans & Media

  • Criticism has grown as the slump continues
  • Even a photo of him on a beach with girlfriend Livvy Dunne went viral — people analyzing his physique instead of his pitching
  • Got a warm ovation at home (PNC Park), but the noise is louder on social media

How Skenes Is Handling It

He’s not panicking. He’s doing what made him great: staying process-oriented.

His Mental Approach

  1. Sticks to his routine — same preparation every start
  2. Ignores outside noise"Not anything from the outside" (media, fans, social media)
  3. Focuses on "what’s real""Objective numbers, watching the game, execution"
  4. Sees the silver lining — Velocity is back up, body feels good

His Quote After the Game

"I’ve been learning a lot and I’ll continue to learn a lot. Just got to keep going."


What Comes Next? (The Road Ahead)

Immediate Schedule

  • 9-game road trip coming up — could define Pittsburgh’s season
  • Skenes will get the ball every 5th day as usual

His Goals

  1. Fix the command — fewer walks, more strikes early in counts
  2. Stay healthy"Having my body in a really good spot for the last month or so"
  3. Pitch deep into October"Hopefully a substantial number of innings after that" (playoffs!)

The Big Picture

  • He’s 24 years old
  • This is his first real adversity as a pro
  • Every Hall of Fame pitcher went through this
  • The tools (velocity, stuff, brain, work ethic) are all still there

Summary

What’s True What’s Not True
Skenes is struggling with command (walks) He’s "washed" or "overrated"
His ERA has risen to 3.95 He’s not still a top-40 pitcher
Hitters have adjusted to him He can’t adjust back
Teammates and coaches believe in him The Pirates are giving up on him
This is normal for young pitchers This is the end of his dominance

Bottom line: Paul Skenes is a 24-year-old superstar experiencing his first slump. It looks weird because his "baseline" was historically great. But the stuff, the brain, and the work ethic that made him a Cy Young winner are all still there. He’s just solving a new puzzle — and he’s solved every other one so far.


FAQ

What is a "walk" in baseball, and why is it bad?

A walk (or "base on balls") happens when a pitcher throws 4 balls outside the strike zone and the batter doesn’t swing. The batter gets to go to first base for free. It’s bad because it puts runners on base without the defense making a play — and those runners often score.

What does "velocity" mean, and why does it matter?

Velocity is how fast the pitch travels, measured in miles per hour (mph). Higher velocity gives hitters less time to react. Skenes’ fastball was touching 100+ mph last year; it dipped to 95 mph recently but is back to 97-99 mph. That’s a good sign his arm is healthy.

What’s the difference between the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year?

  • Rookie of the Year: Best first-year player (only eligible once)
  • Cy Young: Best pitcher overall (can win multiple times)
    Skenes won both in back-to-back years — extremely rare!

Why do hitters "adjust" to pitchers over time?

Major league hitters study video, data, and patterns. After facing a pitcher multiple times (or watching teammates face him), they learn tendencies: "He throws his slider 80% of the time on 0-2 counts" or "His fastball rides up and in." They then game-plan to exploit those tendencies.

Is a 3.95 ERA actually bad?

No! The league average ERA in 2026 is around 4.30. A 3.95 ERA means he’s better than average — just not Skenes-level historic. For context: only ~40 pitchers in all of MLB have a lower ERA right now.

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