Pirates Plummet Into Petco: Can Padres Deliver the Knockout Blow?
Pirates vs Padres: Your Complete Guide to the Three-Game Series in San Diego
Important Points
- The Padres are fighting for a playoff spot (68.2% chance) while the Pirates are nearly eliminated (0.9% chance)
- San Diego has been MLB’s hottest team since July 24 (21-7 record)
- Paul Skenes, last year’s Cy Young winner, pitches Tuesday for Pittsburgh
- Padres closer Mason Miller has been nearly perfect (32-for-33 saves, 0.83 ERA)
When and Where to Watch
| Game | Date & Time | TV Channel |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Monday, 6:40 p.m. | Padres.TV |
| Game 2 | Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. | Padres.TV |
| Game 3 | Wednesday, 1:10 p.m. | Padres.TV |
How Both Teams Are Doing (The Standings)
Pittsburgh Pirates (63-69)
- Place: 4th in NL Central
- Playoff Odds: 0.9% (according to FanGraphs)
- Recent Form: Just got swept by the Dodgers
- Wild Card Race: 8½ games behind the Padres for the final spot
San Diego Padres (71-60)
- Place: 2nd in NL West
- Playoff Odds: 68.2% (according to FanGraphs)
- Recent Form: MLB’s BEST record since July 24 — 21 wins, only 7 losses
- Wild Card Race:
- 2 games ahead of Arizona for the 3rd spot
- 2 games behind Philadelphia for the 2nd spot
- Head-to-Head: Padres won 2 of 3 in Pittsburgh back in April
Who’s Hot Right Now (Trending Players)
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Player | Position | What They’re Doing |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Flores | Catcher | First 6 home runs of his career — all in August (14 games)! Hitting .244/.306/.600 |
| Oneil Cruz | Outfielder | 2 homers, amazing 1.269 OPS in 5 games since coming back from injury |
| Bryan Reynolds | Outfielder | Struggling — .599 OPS this month (lowest among regular players) |
San Diego Padres
| Player | Position | What They’re Doing |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Outfielder | MLB LEADER: 12 homers since the All-Star break, 9 in August alone (1.128 OPS) |
| Jackson Merrill | Outfielder | 6 of his 11 second-half homers came in August (.885 OPS) |
| Manny Machado | Third Base | Struggling at the plate — .608 OPS this month (lowest among regulars) |
ELI5 Note: OPS = On-base Plus Slugging. It combines how often a player gets on base + how much power they hit with. Higher is better. 1.000+ is elite, .700+ is good, below .600 is struggling.
Pitching Matchups (Who’s Starting Each Game)
Game 1 — Monday
| Team | Pitcher | Record | ERA | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) | 13-5 | 3.68 | 2nd-year starter. Workload jumped from ~70 innings last year to ~149 this year. Dominant lately: 2 runs allowed in last 17 innings, 14 strikeouts vs 1 walk |
| Padres | Robbie Ray (LHP) | 11-7 | 3.20 | Just had his 1st quality start as a Padre (6 IP, 1 ER). But: 11 walks vs 10 K’s in last 3 starts. Career 4.09 ERA vs Pirates |
ELI5 Note: "Quality start" = pitcher goes at least 6 innings and allows 3 or fewer earned runs. ERA = Earned Run Average (runs allowed per 9 innings). Lower is better.
Game 2 — Tuesday
| Team | Pitcher | Record | ERA | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Paul Skenes (RHP) | 9-11 | 3.95 | Last year’s unanimous NL Cy Young winner (best pitcher). Fastball down from 98.2 → 96.8 mph. ERA doubled from 1.97 last year. Faced Padres in April: 1 run in 6⅓ innings |
| Padres | Michael King (RHP) | 8-9 | 3.38 | 3 straight quality starts (2.89 ERA), 14 K’s vs 4 walks in 18⅔ IP. But Padres are only 11-15 overall when he starts. Beat Pirates in April: 2 runs in 6 innings |
Game 3 — Wednesday
| Team | Pitcher | Record | ERA | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Bubba Chandler (RHP) | 6-8 | 4.38 | 2nd-year starter. Workload up from ~31 to ~125 innings. Padres knocked him around in April: 3 runs, 5 hits, 4 walks in 4⅓ innings |
| Padres | Randy Vásquez (RHP) likely | 9-6 | 4.19 | 2.91 ERA since returning from ankle injury July 19. Career 4.70 ERA vs Pirates |
ELI5 Note: RHP = Right-Handed Pitcher, LHP = Left-Handed Pitcher. "Bulk reliever" = pitcher who throws multiple innings in relief, not just 1 inning.
Team Stat Leaders (Qualifying Players)
Hitting Leaders
| Stat | Pirates Leaders | Padres Leaders |
|---|---|---|
| OPS (Overall hitting) | Brandon Lowe (.800), Bryan Reynolds (.796), Nick Gonzales (.762) | Fernando Tatis Jr. (.814), Manny Machado (.713), Jackson Merrill (.707) |
| Home Runs | Brandon Lowe (27), Ryan O’Hearn (17), Oneil Cruz (16) | Manny Machado (24), Jackson Merrill (21), Ty France (18) |
| RBIs (Runs driven in) | Brandon Lowe (80), Ryan O’Hearn (69), Bryan Reynolds (66) | Manny Machado (72), Tatis (67), Merrill (66) |
| Stolen Bases | Oneil Cruz (22), Jake Mangum (21), Konnor Griffin (20) | Fernando Tatis Jr. (29), Jackson Merrill (24), Xander Bogaerts (16) |
Pitching Leaders (Relievers)
| Role | Pirates | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Closer (Saves) | Gregory Soto (14/19, 3.44 ERA), Mason Montgomery (5/7, 3.33 ERA) | Mason Miller (32/33, 0.83 ERA) — elite! |
| Setup Men (Holds) | Montgomery (9), Isaac Mattson (8), Soto (8) | Adrián Morejón (21), Jason Adam (17), Jeremiah Estrada (12) |
ELI5 Note: "Save" = closer finishes a game his team is winning by 3 runs or fewer. "Hold" = reliever enters in a save situation, gets outs, but doesn’t finish the game. Mason Miller allowing only 1 blown save all year is incredible.
Injury Report (Training Room)
Pittsburgh Pirates — OUT
- Konnor Griffin (SS) — finger injury, won’t swing bat until September, on IL since early July
- Endy Rodriguez (C/1B) — hip injury
- Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF) — quad injury (former Padre)
- Mitch Keller (RHP) — teres major injury, done for the season
San Diego Padres — DAY-TO-DAY / REHABBING
- Casey Mize (RHP) — right ankle sprain, left Saturday’s start early
- Joe Musgrove (RHP) — elbow, making 4th rehab start Tuesday (delayed by back injury)
- Nick Pivetta (RHP) — flexor, hasn’t pitched in rehab since Aug 4 (elbow discomfort)
- Miguel Andújar (INF) — wrist, started swinging bat
- Jason Adam (RHP) — shoulder, throwing plyo balls (weighted training balls)
- Lucas Giolito (RHP) — elbow, working in Arizona
- Samad Taylor (OF) — rehabbing with Triple-A El Paso
ELI5 Note: "IL" = Injured List (used to be called Disabled List). "Rehab start" = pitcher throws in minor league game to build up before returning. "Plyo balls" = weighted balls used for shoulder strengthening.
Quick Summary: What You Need to Know
- Padres are the clear favorite — fighting for playoffs, hottest team in baseball since late July
- Pirates are playing for pride — mathematically almost eliminated, missing key players
- Tuesday’s game is the marquee matchup — Paul Skenes vs Michael King
- Watch Fernando Tatis Jr. — he’s on an absolute tear (12 HRs in 2nd half, MLB best)
- Padres bullpen is a huge advantage — Mason Miller has been nearly unhittable
- Pirates have some bright spots — Flores and Cruz hitting well, Ashcraft pitching great lately
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Why are the Padres such heavy favorites in this series?
The Padres are 71-60 with a 68% playoff probability, playing at home, and have won 21 of their last 28 games. The Pirates are 63-69 with a 0.9% playoff chance, just got swept by the Dodgers, and are missing 4 key players including their best starter (Mitch Keller) for the year.
2. Is Paul Skenes still good even though his ERA is higher?
Yes! His ERA doubled from 1.97 to 3.95, but that’s still above average for a starting pitcher. His velocity dropped about 1.5 mph, which happens with workload increases. He still strikes out batters at an elite rate and held the Padres to 1 run in 6⅓ innings back in April.
3. Who is Rafael Flores and why is he suddenly hitting home runs?
Flores is a 24-year-old catcher getting his first real MLB playing time. He hit his first 6 career home runs all in August (14 games). Small sample size, but .600 slugging percentage shows real power potential. He’s a fun story for Pirates fans in a lost season.
4. What’s the deal with Mason Miller’s 0.83 ERA?
It’s historically good. For context: the single-season record for relievers with 50+ innings is 0.61 (Fernando Rodney, 2012). Miller has converted 32 of 33 save chances. He’s the best closer in baseball right now and a huge reason the Padres win close games.
5. Can the Pirates still make the playoffs?
Technically yes, realistically no. At 0.9% per FanGraphs, they’d need to win almost every remaining game AND have the Padres/Diamondbacks/Mets collapse. They’re 8½ games back with about 30 games left. This series is about evaluating young players for 2025.
Enjoy the series! Whether you’re a Padres fan hoping for a playoff push or a Pirates fan scouting the future, there’s plenty to watch.