The Seattle Mariners’ Surprising Struggles: An Easy-to-Understand Breakdown

The Big Picture: Mariners Were Expected to Shine

At the start of the baseball season (called Opening Day), a smart stats website called FanGraphs said the Seattle Mariners were the team most likely to win the American League (one of the two big groups in baseball).

But fast forward to the All-Star break (a mid-season pause where the best players have a fun game), and the Mariners are playing slightly worse than a half-winning record — they are one game under .500 (meaning they’ve lost one more game than they’ve won).

Callout – Important Point: The team simply played worse as a whole than the experts thought they would.

What Do These Baseball Words Mean? (A Kid-Friendly Explain)

Before we go further, let’s learn a few funny terms:

• WAR stands for "Wins Above Replacement." Imagine you put a random kid off the street in for a player — WAR tells you how many extra games the real player wins for his team compared to that filler kid. Higher WAR = more helpful player.
• wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) is a score for how good a batter is at making runs (points). A score of 100 means "just average." Above 100 is better, below 100 is worse.
• Steamer is a computer program that predicts how well players will do.
• Prorated means "if we stretch the current performance to a full season."
• IL means Injured List — where hurt players sit out.
• Oblique is a muscle on your side/stomach.
• Concussion is a brain bump from a hit to the head.
• World Baseball Classic (WBC) is a tournament where countries play each other.

Looking at the Team’s Numbers Over Time

The original article shared a timeline chart (named "WAR-Time.png") showing the expected WAR and the actual WAR for the Mariners, with the 2026 season numbers adjusted to the end of the year. It showed the team slipping below expectations.

To dig deeper, the writer split the team into four groups:

• Cal and Julio (the two big star hitters)
• The rest of the batters (called position players)
• The starting pitchers (the rotation)
• The relief pitchers (the pen)

They added up the WAR from last year (2025), the predicted WAR for this year (2026), and the actual WAR this year (prorated).

The Stars: Cal and Julio Have Been Off

A comparison chart ("WAR-comparison.png") and the numbers tell a clear story: most of the team’s "missing magic" comes from these two stars.

• Last year, Cal and Julio together earned 15 WAR.
• This year, the Steamer computer guessed they’d get 12 WAR.
• Right now, they are on pace for just 4 WAR.

Callout – Important Point: The two brightest stars dimmed the most, and that hurt the whole team.

Cal Raleigh’s Story: Hurt and Slumping

Nobody expected Cal to repeat his amazing 2025 (which was almost record-breaking). But he’s been worse than just "not amazing" — he’s been really quite bad, not even average.

Here’s what happened in simple steps:

1. Cal played for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.
2. His coach (Manny Acta) said Cal didn’t get enough practice reps with the team, so he tried to catch up afterwards.
3. He pushed too hard and strained his oblique (side muscle).
4. Cal tried to "tough guy" through the pain at the start of the season.
5. After a long streak of not getting hits (an 0-for), he went on the IL.
6. He came back in mid-June, but he’s still either hurt or hasn’t found his rhythm.

His batting score:

• Before the injury: 62 wRC+ (well below average)
• Since return: 88 wRC+ (still below average)

He is on pace to get only one-sixth of the WAR he was predicted to have.

Julio Rodríguez’s Story: Unlucky Breaks

Julio isn’t as disappointing as Cal, but his year isn’t a success either.

• He started with his best ever batting beginning.
• But he was sloppy in the outfield (catching/fields).
• In June, he fixed his defense, but then his batting cooled off.
• At the end of the month, he got hot again at the plate — then Nolan Schanuel accidentally hit him in the back of the head while running bases.
• Julio is now on the IL with a concussion.

He is on pace for half the WAR he was projected to get.

Comparing to Other Teams’ Top Hitter Pairs

Because Cal and Julio were supposed to be the best batter duo in all of baseball (each projected in the top five hitters overall), the writer checked other teams. They took the two best predicted hitters by Steamer for each team and compared guess vs. actual (prorated).

The table below shows the teams that lost the most production from their top two hitters:

The Mariners’ drop (‑7.5) is the biggest of any team.

The teams just below them (Blue Jays, Padres, Mets, Phillies) actually did worse in overall hitting. But the Mariners as a whole have an even 100 wRC+ (exactly average batting) because the rest of their lineup has been fine — similar to last year when Cal and Julio led them to 2nd place by wRC+ and 9th place by WAR.

The Rest of the Team: Okay, But Need Support

Some teammates did well:

• Randy Arozarena
• Dominic Canzone
• Cole Young

Some did poorly:

• Josh Naylor
• Victor Robles
• Leo Rivas

J.P. Crawford has been hot and cold and isn’t good on defense. Together, they look like the 2025 team — not as deep as the super-team Dodgers, but a reasonably competitive group so long as they don’t have to go it alone.

The Missing Help From New Players

This year, the plan was for this group to step forward. The Mariners added Brendan Donovan in the off-season, which is what pushed the team into the "AL favorites" tier of spring predictions. But Donovan hasn’t been on the field (he’s on the IL).

Another new guy, Rob Refsnyder, was meant to help with the roster’s general lopsidedness. Instead, he is now the worst player ever acquired by Jerry Dipoto (the team’s boss) by WAR. Both Donovan and Refsnyder are on the IL.

The Simple Truth

There’s a rolling chart ("julio-and-cal-roll.png") that shows the slide. The writer says sometimes the answer is easy: the Mariners’ two stars didn’t produce, and the supporting cast couldn’t make up for it. Many other players could step up in the second half, but the difference between last year and this year isn’t a mystery.

Callout – Important Point: The Mariners’ struggles come down to their top two hitters (Cal and Julio) being hurt and underperforming, while the new helpers meant to boost the team are also injured.

Summary

To wrap up in a nutshell:

• The Mariners were picked as American League favorites on Opening Day.
• At the All-Star break, they are one game under .500.
• The main reason is their star duo, Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez, have been hurt and have produced far less WAR than last year and less than Steamer projected.
• The rest of the lineup is about as good as 2025 (average batting), but not good enough to cover the missing star power.
• Key new additions (Donovan, Refsnyder) are also injured.
• If the stars heal and play like themselves, the team could still turn things around.

FAQ

1. What is WAR in baseball, simply?
WAR means "Wins Above Replacement." It’s a number that estimates how many extra games a player wins for his team compared to a substitute player pulled from nowhere. A bigger number means the player is more valuable.

2. Why has Cal Raleigh been so bad this year?
He got hurt early (a side muscle strain) after overworking in the World Baseball Classic. He tried to play through it, then went on the injured list. Since returning, he’s still not back to normal timing or full health, posting wRC+ scores of 62 and 88 (both below average).

3. Is Julio Rodríguez’s season a total failure?
Not totally — he had a great batting start and improved his defense, but then his batting slumped and he suffered a concussion from a teammate’s elbow while running bases. He’s on pace for half his predicted WAR, so it’s not a success but not as rough as Cal’s year.

4. What does "prorated" mean in the article?
It means taking the stats from the games played so far and stretching them out to guess what the full season would look like if the same pace continues.

5. Could the Mariners turn it around in the second half?
Yes! Many players could step up, and if the injured stars (Cal, Julio, Donovan, Refsnyder) return healthy, the team could look like the favorite everyone expected back in spring.