MLB Midseason Stock Watch: A Super Simple Guide to Baseball’s Best So Far

What Is the "Midseason Classic" and Why Is It Weird?

Welcome to Major League Baseball’s (MLB) version of the middle of the year!

Every year, MLB has an All-Star Game (a fun exhibition match) that people call the "Midseason Classic."
But here’s the silly part: by the time they play it, about 60% of the season’s games are already done.
Quick reminder: "half" really means 50%, not 60%!
Even so, baseball folks split stats into "first half" (before the break) and "second half" (after). For example, legend Cal Ripken Jr. has 222 more games counted in his "first half" career line than his "second half" line. Oh well!
We can’t agree on the word "half," but we do agree this is the time to cheer for the best players. That’s what the All-Star Game is about.

Important: This special July report (called "Stock Watch") normally looks at teams, but this version celebrates players. For every club we picked a First-Half MVP (most valuable player) and counted how many All-Star-level players they have.

How Did We Pick the Players? (Easy Method)

We used a computer model and some simple steps:

Start with predictions: We took neutral forecasts (called Steamer projections from FanGraphs) plus betting odds for playoffs and World Series.
Simulate the season: We ran the 2026 schedule 10,000 times on a computer to get average win totals and chances of reaching playoffs.
Use a player score called AXE: AXE is like a report card number for a player.
- 100 = average player
- 110–119 = "first-division" (really good)
- 120+ = All-Star-caliber (superstar level)
- 130+ = MVP-level (among the best in the league)
Pick MVPs: Each team’s highest AXE player is their First-Half MVP.
Count All-Stars: Any player with AXE 120 or higher gets the "All-Star-caliber" tag.

Important Callout:
AXE is a special rating made by ESPN. Think of it as a score where 100 is an ordinary player, higher is better. A score of 120 or more means the player is performing like an All-Star. Also, MEH is a fun label we use for players who are just below average (not great, not terrible) – it measures how many roster spots are filled by these "meh" players.

The Teams, From Best to Worst (by Predicted Wins)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Win average: 106.2 (last time: 104.1, ranked 2nd)
Chance to make playoffs: 100% (same as last)
Chance to be champions: 36.1% (was 25.3%)
First-Half MVP: Shohei Ohtani (AXE 156). He is on track to be the first player ever to be worth 5.0 WAR (wins above replacement – a measure of how many extra wins he gives his team) as both a hitter and a pitcher in one season. He isn’t the single best hitter or pitcher, but the best overall player.
All-Star-caliber performances: Six players – Ohtani, Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Justin Wrobleski.
- The Dodgers have two more such players than any other team.
- Surprisingly, stars Mookie Betts and Blake Snell are not on this list, but young guys Pages and Wrobleski stepped up.
- They have 15 above-average players (AXE 100–109), most in MLB, and none are "busts" (below 90).

Milwaukee Brewers

Win average: 99.9 (last: 99.7, 3rd)
Playoffs: 99.8% (was 99.3%)
Champions: 18.3% (was 12.4%)
First-Half MVP: Jacob Misiorowski (AXE 140). His super fast pitches get attention, but his control (throwing strikes) is what makes him historic. He leads in "strikeout percentage minus walk percentage" (32.5%) – meaning he strikes out way more batters than he walks. That ranks 3rd best ever.
All-Star-caliber: Two – Misiorowski, Brice Turang.
- Turang was the biggest snub from the initial All-Star roster.
- Brewers have six players in the 110–119 tier (most in National League). They keep winning while getting younger.

Tampa Bay Rays

Win average: 93.0 (last: 90.5, 5th)
Playoffs: 98.6% (was 93.3%)
Champions: 9.7% (was 3.7%)
First-Half MVP: Junior Caminero (AXE 125). He just turned 23 and already has 78 career home runs. He could join the top 10 all-time for players aged 23 or younger.
All-Star-caliber: Four – Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez.
- Martinez is a 35-year-old journeyman who pitched in Japan and is having a career year. The Rays find talent in many clever ways.

Atlanta Braves

Win average: 92.2 (last: 104.7, 1st)
Playoffs: 92.8% (was 99.9%)
Champions: 5.3% (was 21.5%)
First-Half MVP: Matt Olson (AXE 129). He has been a steady power hitter for years (OPS+ – a stat where 100 is average, higher is better – shows he’s elite). With star Ronald Acuna Jr. hurt, Olson has been a constant in the lineup (hasn’t missed a game).
All-Star-caliber: Three – Olson, Chris Sale, Michael Harris II.
- Missing from this list: Acuna, Drake Baldwin, Spencer Strider (all injured or slumping). If they get healthy, Braves become scary good.

New York Yankees

Win average: 90.0 (last: 97.2, 4th)
Playoffs: 95.7% (was 99.6%)
Champions: 8.5% (was 18.8%)
First-Half MVP: Cam Schlittler (AXE 134). After a rough start in June, he pitched great against Tampa Bay. On a staff with famous pitchers, he might be their Game 1 playoff starter.
All-Star-caliber: Three – Schlittler, Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice.
- Aaron Judge (AXE 117) is just below due to injury. This trio kept Yankees winning when Judge was out.

Chicago Cubs

Win average: 88.7 (last: 83.0, 13th)
Playoffs: 78.4% (was 42.9%)
Champions: 3.4% (was 0.6%)
First-Half MVP: Pete Crow-Armstrong (AXE 151). Only he and Ohtani are above 150. Great defense, speed, and improved power.
All-Star-caliber: One – Crow-Armstrong.
- They have five players in 110 tier (all position players). If pitching gets healthy, they could surge.

Philadelphia Phillies

Win average: 87.7 (last: 86.6, 8th)
Playoffs: 72.1% (was 68.1%)
Champions: 2.1% (was 1.6%)
First-Half MVP: Cristopher Sanchez (AXE 139). He had a bad game Monday but has been excellent; only Jacob Misiorowski better for Cy Young (best pitcher award).
All-Star-caliber: Four – Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Jesus Luzardo.
- Stars like Bryce Harper (117) are close. Phillies stay healthy, which helps their "stars over depth" plan.

Seattle Mariners

Win average: 85.8 (last: 88.4, 6th)
Playoffs: 83.2% (was 89.3%)
Champions: 6.5% (was 7.1%)
First-Half MVP: Randy Arozarena (AXE 121). Leads team in batting average, getting on base, and steals.
All-Star-caliber: Two – Arozarena, Logan Gilbert.
- Big stars like Cal Raleigh not here; Mariners have 9 in 110+ tier but need stars to shine to contend.

Miami Marlins

Win average: 85.7 (last: 74.5, 22nd)
Playoffs: 55.8% (was 4.8%)
Champions: 1.1% (was 0.0%)
First-Half MVP: Otto Lopez (AXE 139). He’s chasing the batting title; best shortstop in NL.
All-Star-caliber: Three – Lopez, Max Meyer, Xavier Edwards.
- Middle infield great; depth ratio (good vs bad players) 3rd best in NL.

Cleveland Guardians

Win average: 84.6 (last: 87.2, 7th)
Playoffs: 74.1% (was 86.2%)
Champions: 2.3% (was 3.3%)
First-Half MVP: Parker Messick (AXE 126). Great pitcher; bullpen (relievers) also key.
All-Star-caliber: Two – Messick, Brayan Rocchio.
- Rocchio bounced back from a terrible 2025.

St. Louis Cardinals

Win average: 84.2 (last: 84.7, 9th)
Playoffs: 40.3% (was 52.5%)
Champions: 0.5% (was 0.5%)
First-Half MVP: JJ Wetherholt (AXE 135). Rookie at 23, already best on team and Rookie of the Year favorite.
All-Star-caliber: Two – Wetherholt, Jordan Walker.
- Walker went from disappointing to NL-leading 67 RBIs.

Chicago White Sox

Win average: 83.3 (last: 79.2, 16th)
Playoffs: 59.4% (was 32.8%)
Champions: 1.2% (was 0.3%)
First-Half MVP: Miguel Vargas (AXE 132). Former Dodger prospect breaking out.
All-Star-caliber: Four – Vargas, Davis Martin, Tristan Peters, Colson Montgomery.
- Peters (once a Savannah Banana entertainer) is a surprise star.

Texas Rangers

Win average: 83.0 (last: 83.5, 10th)
Playoffs: 62.8% (was 64.8%)
Champions: 1.8% (was 1.9%)
First-Half MVP: Josh Jung (AXE 118). Health and better strike-zone control helped; just below All-Star level.
All-Star-caliber: Zero. (Rangers, Orioles, Rockies only teams with none.)
- Their "MEH" (below-average but not terrible) players keep them competitive; need stars like deGrom to break out.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Win average: 82.0 (last: 83.3, 12th)
Playoffs: 24.6% (was 45.6%)
Champions: 0.6% (was 0.7%)
First-Half MVP: Bryan Reynolds (AXE 126). Steady star possibly heading to playoffs first time.
All-Star-caliber: Three – Reynolds, Braxton Ashcraft, Brandon Lowe.
- Pitcher Paul Skenes (117) not quite 120 but crucial.

Washington Nationals

Win average: 80.7 (last: 77.8, 18th)
Playoffs: 15.6% (was 12.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (was 0.1%)
First-Half MVP: James Wood (AXE 133). Hit a huge grand slam; on pace to break team runs record.
All-Star-caliber: Two – Wood, CJ Abrams.
- Both came from Juan Soto trade. Bullpen makes leads shaky.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Win average: 80.3 (last: 83.4, 11th)
Playoffs: 14.5% (was 43.8%)
Champions: 0.1% (was 0.4%)
First-Half MVP: Corbin Carroll (AXE 130). Consistent star; if he gets even hotter, D-backs could return to playoffs.
All-Star-caliber: Two – Carroll, Eduardo Rodriguez.
- Rodriguez having best year; rotation needs help.

Minnesota Twins

Win average: 79.8 (last: 73.6, 25th)
Playoffs: 33.4% (was 7.6%)
Champions: 0.7% (was 0.1%)
First-Half MVP: Byron Buxton (AXE 123). After injuries, he’s a better hitter in his 30s than before.
All-Star-caliber: Two – Buxton, Joe Ryan.
- Twins get above-average play from many unknown players.

Houston Astros

Win average: 79.8 (last: 77.3, 19th)
Playoffs: 31.9% (was 21.8%)
Champions: 0.6% (was 0.3%)
First-Half MVP: Yordan Alvarez (AXE 140). Leading AL in many hitting stats; could win Triple Crown (lead in avg, HR, RBI).
All-Star-caliber: One – Alvarez.
- Roster top-heavy; worst ratio of good to bad players in MLB.

San Diego Padres

Win average: 77.9 (last: 79.9, 14th)
Playoffs: 5.5% (was 20.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (was 0.2%)
First-Half MVP: Mason Miller (AXE 122). Top reliever (closer) with huge strikeout numbers.
All-Star-caliber: One – Miller.
- Stars like Tatis, Machado not at 120; Padres need them.

Boston Red Sox

Win average: 77.6 (last: 74.5, 22nd)
Playoffs: 20.9% (was 10.7%)
Champions: 0.5% (was 0.1%)
First-Half MVP: Willson Contreras (AXE 127). At 34, best offensive year.
All-Star-caliber: Two – Contreras, Ceddanne Rafaela.
- Rafaela adds great defense; kept Boston alive.

Detroit Tigers

Win average: 77.0 (last: 73.7, 24th)
Playoffs: 16.4% (was 9.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (was 0.2%)
First-Half MVP: Kevin McGonigle (AXE 136). 21-year-old rookie dominating strike zone.
All-Star-caliber: Three – McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, Casey Mize.
- Trade rumors around Tarik Skubal; many good pieces but injuries hurt.

Baltimore Orioles

Win average: 76.2 (last: 76.5, 20th)
Playoffs: 10.3% (was 18.1%)
Champions: 0.1% (was 0.2%)
First-Half MVP: Pete Alonso (AXE 116). Slow start but typical slugger; needs big second half.
All-Star-caliber: Zero.
- Henderson struggling; need more from stars.

Toronto Blue Jays

Win average: 75.9 (last: 79.6, 15th)
Playoffs: 9.0% (was 36.3%)
Champions: 0.2% (was 0.6%)
First-Half MVP: Dylan Cease (AXE 127). AL strikeout leader; durable.
All-Star-caliber: Two – Cease, Louis Varland.
- Hitters from 2025 World Series team missing; offense problematic.

Athletics

Win average: 73.4 (last: 78.1, 17th)
Playoffs: 4.2% (was 25.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (was 0.2%)
First-Half MVP: Nick Kurtz (AXE 136). Star hitter improved against left-handed pitchers.
All-Star-caliber: Two – Kurtz, Shea Langeliers.
- Pitching thin; four bust players hurt.

Cincinnati Reds

Win average: 71.9 (last: 72.5, 26th)
Playoffs: 0.5% (was 2.4%)
Champions: 0.0% (was 0.0%)
First-Half MVP: Chase Burns (AXE 133). Rookie ace from great 2024 draft class.
All-Star-caliber: One – Burns.
- Reds bullpen awful; early season promise faded.

San Francisco Giants

Win average: 69.8 (last: 69.2, 28th)
Playoffs: 0.1% (was 0.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (was 0.0%)
First-Half MVP: Luis Arraez (AXE 121). Almost never strikes out; career-best power.
All-Star-caliber: One – Arraez.
- Highest "MEH" (worst star depth) in NL.

New York Mets

Win average: 68.3 (last: 75.6, 21st)
Playoffs: 0.1% (was 7.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (was 0.1%)
First-Half MVP: Juan Soto (AXE 126). Leading NL in key hitting stats; doing his job despite team struggles.
All-Star-caliber: One – Soto.
- Many high-paid players underperforming (busts).

Kansas City Royals

Win average: 67.5 (last: 71.6, 27th)
Playoffs: 0.2% (was 4.4%)
Champions: 0.0% (was 0.0%)
First-Half MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (AXE 143). MVP candidate if he keeps hitting.
All-Star-caliber: One – Witt.
- Young players coming; foundation solid.

Los Angeles Angels

Win average: 63.9 (last: 63.3, 29th)
Playoffs: 0.0% (was 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (was 0.0%)
First-Half MVP: Mike Trout (AXE 122). Resurgent season despite injuries; still great contact.
All-Star-caliber: One – Trout.
- Others good but not 120; roster needs fix.

Colorado Rockies

Win average: 63.6 (last: 56.8, 30th)
Playoffs: 0.0% (was 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (was 0.0%)
First-Half MVP: TJ Rumfield (AXE 115). Found from Yankees system; hits well home and away (rare for Rockies).
All-Star-caliber: Zero.
- Positive sign: Rockies score most runs on the road since 2007 pennant team.

Extra Reading From the Original Report

The original article included side notes about other ESPN stories:

Trade Deadline: Top 100 MLB trade candidates (like Skubal possibly moving).
Free Agency: Best and worst free-agent signings ever (Barry Bonds to Barry Zito).
Prospects: Top 10 prospect lists for every team.
Fantasy Baseball: Closer stock watch, second-half schedule surprises, etc.
Editor’s Picks: Related All-Star and awards watch articles.

Summary

Baseball’s "Midseason Classic" isn’t really midseason (60% done), but we still celebrate top players.
Using AXE scores (100=average, 120=All-Star, 130=MVP), we named each team’s first-half MVP and counted star players.
Dodgers lead with 6 All-Star-level players and Ohtani (AXE 156) as MVP.
Brewers, Rays, Braves, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies follow with strong showings.
Some teams like Rangers, Orioles, Rockies have zero 120+ players but stay competitive via "MEH" depth.
Rookies like Wetherholt, McGonigle, Burns shine.
The AL and NL have many surprises; health and depth decide playoff hopes.

FAQ (Easy Answers)

Q1: What is AXE?
A: AXE is a number ESPN uses to grade players. 100 is average. 120+ means All-Star good. 130+ means MVP good.

Q2: Why call it "Midseason Classic" if most games are played?
A: Tradition! The game is after about 60% of games, but folks still call it midseason because it breaks the year into "first half" and "second half" for stats.

Q3: What makes a player "All-Star-caliber"?
A: In this article, any player with an AXE rating of 120 or higher is tagged that way.

Q4: What does "MEH" mean?
A: MEH counts players who are just below average (not stars, not busts). Teams with high MEH rely on many okay players instead of few stars.

Q5: How are team win averages figured?
A: Computers use past projections and betting odds, then simulate the season 10,000 times to average out wins and playoff chances.

Article based on Bradford Doolittle’s ESPN Stock Watch (Jul 8, 2026). Simplified for beginners.

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