In response to the recent targeted killings of high-ranking officials from the militant organizations Hamas and Hezbollah, airlines are taking precautionary measures to ensure the safety of their passengers and crew.These measures include rerouting flights to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace and suspending services to Israel and Lebanon due to the heightened risk of conflict in the region.
These events have pushed the region to the brink of a wider conflict, particularly between Israel and Iran, and have jeopardized ceasefire and hostage negotiations related to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
Why it matters
- These high-profile assassinations threaten to derail crucial ceasefire and hostage negotiations in Gaza.
- The deaths of Shukr and Haniyeh could provoke direct retaliation from Iran and its proxies, raising the specter of a full-scale war that could be far deadlier than the current Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
- The potential for a larger regional conflict poses significant risks to global stability and security.
- While US officials, lawmakers, and analysts believe neither Israel nor Iran is seeking a full-scale war, the risk remains due to the potential for events to spiral out of control.
What they are saying
- Michael Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, told Foreign Policy: “This is the closest the region has been to an all-out conflict in the last 10 months.”
- “You do not know what red lines you crossed. Those who are behind it must await our inevitable response,” Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said, addressing Israel, a day after Shukr was killed in a strike in south Beirut.
- Bilal Saab, US Middle East security expert, told FP: “If any war happens, it’s not going to be because of a deliberate declaration of war; it’s going to happen because of things spiraling out of control. Both sides, Israel and the Iran-led axis, do not want such a war, but it’s the ultimate paradox because they continue to pursue provocative acts that are getting us closer and closer to war.”
- Senator Ben Cardin, Democratic chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: “It makes it much more challenging right now in regard to the hostage negotiations, and it makes a hot situation even hotter.”
- “How far does Iran retaliate? What does ‘revenge’ truly mean? How far are they willing to walk up to that line without going to outright war with the Israelis,” Stephen Ganyard, former deputy assistant US secretary of state and an ABC news contributor, told ABC News.
Hamas leader killed: How will Iran respond?
Between the lines
- The assassinations are seen as part of Israel’s strategy to escalate tensions with Hezbollah and Iran to force a de-escalation in Gaza.
- According to Ganyard, Israel may be following an ‘escalate to de-escalate’ strategy.
- This ‘escalate to de-escalate’ strategy could either lead to a settlement or provoke further conflict. Iran’s response could mirror its restrained retaliation in April, when it launched drones and missiles at Israel following a deadly strike in Damascus.
- Otherwise, the recent killings may push Iran and its allies towards a more coordinated and potentially severe response to demonstrate their capability and resolve.
Zoom in: Here’s how Iran may respond
As per some reports, Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly ordered a direct strike on Israel in response to Haniyeh’s killing. This suggests that Iran is prepared to escalate the conflict, potentially involving missile strikes similar to the attack in April where Iran launched over 300 ballistic and cruise missiles along with drones at Israel.
Iran’s area of influence
Coordinated response with allies
As per other reports, Iran is expected to coordinate its response with its regional allies, including Hezbollah, Palestinian movements, Yemen’s Huthis, and Iraqi Shia militias. This alliance, known as the “axis of resistance,” will likely orchestrate a staggered or simultaneous series of retaliatory strikes. There are indications that both Iran and its allies are preparing for coordinated military actions to avoid a full-scale war while strongly deterring further Israeli actions.
Symbolic and tactical strikes
Iran and its proxies might engage in targeted strikes against Israeli military and strategic assets rather than initiating a full-scale war. This approach aims to inflict damage while managing the conflict’s escalation to avoid drawing in more significant international intervention.
What next
- The assassinations have complicated the US-led efforts to mediate a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
- Haniyeh, a key figure in these negotiations, was viewed as the international face of Hamas and played a significant role in ceasefire and hostage discussions.
- His death may impede the progress of these talks and push the involved parties further from a resolution.
- The challenge for both sides is to manage their actions and responses in a way that achieves their strategic objectives without triggering an uncontrollable escalation.
- Ganyard pointed out that Iran faces a genuine obstacle in determining the extent of its involvement, given that Haniyeh was not “one of its guys.” He emphasized the fact that Hamas is a Sunni organization, while Iran’s leadership is predominantly Shia.
- This sectarian difference between the two groups presents a significant challenge for Iran in navigating its relationship with Hamas and deciding the level of support it will provide.
- Iran is likely to retaliate but will carefully consider the extent of its response to avoid an all-out war with Israel, Ganyard added.
(With inputs from agencies)
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