The BJP has a lot at stake, especially in Haryana, where it is seeking a third term in office under chief minister Nayab Singh Saini – who replaced Manohar Lal Khattar in March this year.
The fact that the BJP had to change its chief minister of nearly 9 years in an election year speaks volumes about the party’s ground assessment of situation in the state.
If the Lok Sabha election results in the state is any indication to go by, the BJP is on a sticky wicket. It’s tally in the Lower House was reduced by half as the party managed to win only 5 of the 10 seats in Lok Sabha elections. Clearly, the last-minute change of leadership did not help to prevent the slide.
In 2019 also, the party had fallen short of majority winning only 40 seats but managed to stich post poll alliance with Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) to form its government for second consecutive term. However, the alliance ended on a bitter note earlier this year and JJP leader and former deputy chief minister Dushyant Chautala has announced that he is ready for contest on all the 90 seats.
“The new CM has only made announcements in the last 74 days which has taken the state backwards. The public will take accountability, they have seen it all. People have made up their minds,” Chautala said.
Clearly, Nayab Saini has an uphill task at hand as he tries to recover lost ground for the BJP. With 10 years in power, the BJP faces anti-incumbency. Also, the party would hope that there are no negative fallouts of Centre’s handling of the farmers agitation.
The Congress on the other hand is confident of a good show. In 2019, the party managed to win 30 seats, 10 less than the BJP. The party is already running an aggressive campaign ‘Haryana Maange Hisab’ against the BJP government and is confident that people will vote for change.
Congress leader and former state chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda said: “People were waiting for the poll date to be announced. We will form government with an overwhelming majority and the BJP will be ousted from power.”
However, one of the biggest challenges that Congress faces is of factionalism in the party’s state unit with several strong contenders vying for prominence.
The Congress has made it clear that it will not ally with any INDIA bloc party in the state, which means that Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP will try to make this a three-cornered contest.
Then there is Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) which will be contesting the Haryana polls in alliance with Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). In the last elections the BSP had garnered over 4% of votes, though it could not win any assembly seat.
Jammu & Kashmir
In J&K, the BJP would hope to make some significant gains, especially in the Jammu region. Assembly elections will be held in Jammu and Kashmir after nearly a decade in three phases from September 18, allowing people of the Union Territory to elect a government after the scrapping of Article 370 in 2019.
Union home minister Amit Shah said polls in J&K will further strengthen the roots of democracy and open the doors to a new period of development for the Union Territory.
“In the last 10 years, the Modi govt through a series of relentless initiatives, has created a new era of peace, development and strengthening democracy in J&K,” Shah wrote on X.
The BJP would hope that the recent spike in terror incidents would not hamper its electoral prospects in the state.
Almost all major parties have welcomed the EC’s announcement of poll schedule in the state.The apex court had set September 30 as the deadline for assembly elections in the UT.
Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP alleged that the LG administration was full of prejudice and bias and was working to favour the BJP. “PDP welcomes this move but we have a few questions. Why were elections not held on time? Why did it take so much time?” Mehbooba Mufti’s daughter Iltija Mufti said.
The National Conference will be led by party chief Farooq Abdullah in the elections and not his son, Omar Abdullah, who has opted to refrain from participating until Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood is restored. Farooq Abdullah called for a level playing field for all political parties in the region as he alleged that the BJP — the ruling party at the Centre — held “disproportionate advantages”.
The Congress on the other hand made a significant organisational reshuffle ahead of the assembly polls as it appointed Tariq Hameed Karra as president of its Jammu and Kashmir unit. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge also appointed two working presidents for Jammu and Kashmir — Tara Chand and Raman Bhalla.
The Congress has announced to make statehood a poll issue. However, it will be important to see if the grand old party manages to stitch alliance with any of the two regional parties – PDP and NC – who are part of the INDIA bloc at the national level.
The grand old party has accused the Modi government of trying to control the revived state administration of Jammu and Kashmir by giving more powers to the LG in July this year.
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