The ongoing political upheaval in Bangladesh, marked by the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has raised concerns about the future trajectory of the nation.
Analysts are drawing parallels between Bangladesh’s current situation and the political landscapes of Afghanistan and Pakistan, both of which have experienced significant turmoil in recent years.
Driving the news
Analysts are drawing parallels between Bangladesh’s current situation and the political landscapes of Afghanistan and Pakistan, both of which have experienced significant turmoil in recent years.
Driving the news
- Sheikh Hasina, who has been a dominant figure in Bangladeshi politics for over a decade, resigned from her position as Prime Minister on August 5, 2024, amid widespread protests against her government.
- The protests were primarily fueled by dissatisfaction with a controversial job quota system that many citizens deemed unfair.
- Following her resignation, Hasina fled to India, leading to the establishment of an interim government led by
Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus , which has raised questions about the stability and legitimacy of the new administration. - The immediate aftermath of Hasina’s departure has been characterized by uncertainty and unrest.
- According to a UN report, over 600 have been killed in the current unrest. Of these, nearly 400 deaths were reported from July 16 to August 4, while around 250 people were reportedly killed following the new wave of protests between August 5 and 6,” the UN report said.
- At least 52 of the country’s 64 districts have been affected by incidents of sectarian violence since August 5, the day Hasina fled to India.
- Hundreds of Hindus have been trying to flee to India to escape the violence.
- The interim government faces the daunting task of restoring order and addressing the grievances that led to the protests. The situation is precarious, with the potential for further civil unrest if the new administration fails to implement effective reforms.
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Why it matters
- Hasina’s ouster represents a seismic shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape. Once celebrated for transforming Bangladesh’s economy, Hasina’s tenure became marred by allegations of corruption, human rights abuses, and a government that catered to a wealthy elite while the broader population suffered.
- The protests reflect a deep-rooted anger among the public, particularly among young people facing high unemployment and economic uncertainty.
- Analysts point out that this unrest is as much about economic despair as it is about political repression, with the student protesters embodying the frustrations of a generation left behind by Hasina’s policies.
Zoom in
- The aftermath of Hasina’s resignation has seen the rise of student leaders in governance.
- These students, who played a crucial role in the protests, are now part of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. They have begun taking on responsibilities like managing traffic in Dhaka, a symbolic gesture of their commitment to restoring order.
- However, their lack of political experience raises concerns about their ability to navigate the complex challenges of governance and the potential for further instability.
- On Thursday, a large group of student protesters and political activists, wielding various weapons such as bamboo sticks, iron rods, and pipes, launched an attack on Hasina’s supporters in Dhaka.
- The assault prevented Hasina’s supporters from reaching the former residence of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who was assassinated along with most of his family members during a military coup on Aug. 15, 1975.
- Mujib Mashal, South Asian bureau chief of The New York Times, in a video post on social media platform X said that it was a “complete mob rule.”
- “The victims of yesterday are perpetrators of today; men armed with clubs and pipes (many identified themselves as BNP and Jamaat) thrashing and chasing away anyone they suspect of being Awami League,” he said.
Next Afghanistan?
- The situation in Afghanistan serves as a stark warning for Bangladesh. After the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021, Afghanistan plunged into chaos, marked by a humanitarian crisis, economic collapse, and a severe curtailment of civil liberties.
- For Bangladesh, the risk of descending into a similar state of disarray is present, particularly if the interim government fails to unify the country and address the root causes of discontent. The potential for extremist groups to exploit the political vacuum cannot be overlooked, as seen in Afghanistan, where the Taliban capitalized on widespread dissatisfaction with the previous government.
- However, unlike Afghanistan, where extremist groups like the Taliban have historically wielded significant power, Bangladesh has largely managed to keep Islamist forces on the periphery of mainstream politics.
- While Islamist groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami have had some influence, their impact has been limited, especially under Hasina’s government, which took a firm stance against extremism. The country’s institutions, though not without flaws, are robust enough to withstand pressures that could otherwise lead to an Islamist takeover.
- In an exclusive interview with The Daily Star, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, addressed concerns regarding Bangladesh becoming next Afghanistan, offering a nuanced perspective on country’s future.
- Kugelman strongly rejects the notion that Bangladesh is on the path to becoming the next Afghanistan. He emphasizes that Bangladesh, despite its current political turmoil, is fundamentally different from Afghanistan in several key aspects.
- “Even the most casual observer of Bangladesh knows that it’s a country with robust—albeit flawed—institutions, a strong state writ that extends across the country, and also a tradition of moderate Islam,” Kugelman said.
- Kugelman insists that while Bangladesh faces significant challenges, including the rise of communal violence and political uncertainty, the idea of it turning into another Afghanistan is far-fetched.
- “Yes, there are influential religious groups like Jamaat and Hefazat that excel with mobilisation, and there have been terror groups like JMB. But these entities don’t influence politics and society to the extent that you see in Afghanistan, or Pakistan for that matter,” Kugelman added.
“Hybrid” regime
- While Bangladesh is unlikely to become the next Afghanistan, comparisons with Pakistan warrant a more nuanced discussion.
- Pakistan’s history of military coups, political instability, and the interplay between civilian governments and the military offers a more relevant comparison, though with critical differences.
- Pakistan’s political system has been marred by repeated military interventions, which have undermined democratic processes and contributed to a cycle of instability.
- With the military assuming control and an interim government in place, questions arise regarding the potential emergence of a “hybrid” regime similar to that of Pakistan, where electoral processes exist but military influence remains paramount.
- A hybrid regime is characterized by the coexistence of democratic and authoritarian elements. In such systems, elections may occur, but they are often marred by irregularities, repression of opposition, and manipulation of state institutions to maintain power.
- Since Pervez Musharraf’s ouster in 2008, Pakistan has exemplified this model, where civilian governments operate under the shadow of military oversight, leading to a fragile political environment.
- Bangladesh too has a history of military involvement in politics, with periods of direct rule interspersed with civilian governments.
- The military’s previous experience in governance, particularly during the 1975-1990 military rule, has shaped its approach to political stability.
- However, the military in Bangladesh, while influential, has not exerted the same level of control over the government as seen in Pakistan. This is a crucial factor that differentiates Bangladesh’s political trajectory from Pakistan’s.
- Some analysts suggest that the military may prefer a façade of democracy while retaining ultimate control, similar to Pakistan’s model.
What’s next
- Will Gen Z, who led the movement against Sheikh Hasina, be able to break the duopoly in Bangladesh politics? For nearly three decades, Bangladesh has been ruled by either Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League or Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party.
- According to Mahfuj Alam, a 26-year-old law student who heads a committee responsible for coordinating between the government and various social groups, student leaders have been discussing the possibility of establishing a political party to break the current duopoly.
- However, Alam later clarified his statement to Reuters on Facebook, saying that the students’ primary focus was on maintaining the spirit of the mass uprising and consolidating the government, rather than forming political organizations at this time.
- He emphasized that the priority was to reform the political system as a whole, and that the appropriate political structure would be revealed in due course.
- Ultimately, the path forward will depend on the military’s willingness to facilitate genuine political reform, address public discontent, and restore trust in state institutions.
- The coming months will be critical in determining whether Bangladesh can navigate this transitional phase without succumbing to the pitfalls of a Islamic or hybrid regime.
(With inputs from agencies)
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