China’s new nationwide smartphone subsidy program could further erode Apple’s market position while boosting domestic rivals Huawei, Xiaomi, and Oppo, as the world’s largest smartphone market moves to stimulate consumer spending.
The National Development and Reform Commission announced Friday that China will expand its trade-in subsidies to cover smartphones and other personal electronics, marking a significant shift that could reshape the competitive landscape. The program, backed by “significant” increases in ultra-long special treasury bonds, aims to revive domestic consumption amid economic headwinds.
The timing couldn’t be worse for Apple, which has seen its smartphone shipments in China decline for four consecutive months. Foreign brand shipments plunged 47.4% year-over-year in November to 3.04 million units, according to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology.
Meanwhile, domestic manufacturers are gaining ground. Huawei has emerged as a particularly strong challenger since its return to the premium segment in August 2023, with sales surging 42% in the third quarter of 2024. Apple briefly dropped out of China’s top five smartphone vendors in the second quarter before recovering.
The subsidy program, reminiscent of a 2007-2013 initiative that helped Chinese manufacturers gain market share, comes as Apple attempts to shore up sales through its own rare promotional campaign. The iPhone maker launched a four-day promotion Thursday, offering discounts up to 500 yuan ($68.50) on flagship models.
“This government initiative could accelerate the ongoing shift in consumer preferences toward domestic brands,” said Yuan Da, deputy secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission. The program will expand beyond personal devices to include agricultural facilities and other business equipment.
Several provinces had already implemented local trade-in programs for personal devices in late 2024, but analysts expect the nationwide rollout to have a more substantial impact on market dynamics.
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