Is Sri Lanka next? How presidential polls could impact Delhi-Colombo ties – Times of India

Sri Lanka is gearing up for its first presidential election since the 2022 economic crisis as the island nation heads to polls on September 21. But the significance of this election goes far beyond the island’s borders—it could profoundly reshape its foreign relations, especially with India. In a region where political stability is fragile, and India’s influence faces growing challenges, Sri Lanka’s foreign policy has never been more important to New Delhi.
With contenders like incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and National People’s Power leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake in the running, the stakes are high.Each candidate brings a different vision for Sri Lanka’s future and geopolitical strategies.
As India’s neighbors grapple with crises—from political unrest in Bangladesh to rising anti-India sentiments in the Maldives—the stability of its relationship with Sri Lanka remains vital for maintaining regional balance.
How Sri Lanka’s election works
In a unique system, each voter ranks three candidates in order of preference. Initially, only the first-choice votes are counted. If a candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes, they are immediately declared the winner.
However, if no one reaches this threshold, the election moves to a second phase. In this phase, only the top two candidates remain, and the ballots of eliminated candidates are re-examined to see if the second or third preferences of voters favor one of the two remaining contenders. These additional votes are added to the existing tallies, and the candidate with the most votes is declared president.
In Sri Lanka’s political system, the President wields considerable power as the head of state, government, cabinet, and the armed forces. While the prime minister has some influence, particularly in selecting cabinet members, it is the president who holds the reins of the nation’s governance.
Who are the key candidates?
Sri Lanka’s upcoming presidential election is critical, with 39 candidates competing to lead a nation in the throes of its worst financial crisis in decades. Here are the five key players to watch out for in the upcoming elections.
Ranil Wickremesinghe, 75, the current president and six-time prime minister, stepped in after Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation. Though his United National Party (UNP) is weak in parliament, his support from over 90 lawmakers strengthens his bid.
Sajith Premadasa, 57, opposition leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), advocates revising the $2.9 billion IMF bailout to reduce taxes and ease the cost of living. As the son of a former president, Premadasa’s platform appeals to those seeking economic relief and reform.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake, 55, leader of the National People’s Power (NPP), has gained traction with his anti-corruption stance and calls for state-led economic reforms. Although his party holds only three parliamentary seats, Dissanayake’s popularity is growing.
Namal Rajapaksa, 38, represents the influential Rajapaksa family and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). While the family’s legacy looms large, Namal faces the challenge of distancing himself from the economic collapse linked to his uncle’s government.
Nuwan Bopage, 40, from the Peoples’ Struggle Alliance, draws support from the anti-government protests that ousted Gotabaya. He opposes the IMF bailout, advocating for pro-poor policies and alternatives to international aid.

Key issues: Sri Lanka’s deep economic crisis
Sri Lanka’s election is being held under the shadow of a deep economic crisis, which has become the focal point of this election. Once hailed as an economic success in South Asia, the nation plunged into turmoil in 2022 due to unsustainable debt and the global fallout from the Covid pandemic. Essentials like food, fuel, and medicine became scarce, leading to widespread anger and a popular uprising that forced then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country. Many pointed fingers at the Rajapaksa family, blaming their policies for the collapse.
Inflation, which skyrocketed to 70% in 2022, has since dropped below 5%, and foreign reserves have improved. However, despite a predicted 2% growth in 2024, these gains haven’t trickled down to the common people. The cost of living remains high, and businesses and professionals continue to struggle under heavy taxation. While macroeconomic indicators show improvement, the lived reality for many Sri Lankans remains difficult, making the economy a decisive factor in determining who will lead the nation next.

No impact of elections on India? Here’s a catch
As Sri Lanka inches closer to its presidential elections, the country’s foreign policy—particularly its relations with India—hangs in the balance. With multiple leading candidates vying for the highest office, the outcome of this election could redefine Colombo’s diplomatic course with New Delhi. Each contender offers a distinct vision of Sri Lanka’s international role, with India sitting prominently at the crossroads.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leading the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, poses a fascinating challenge to Sri Lanka’s traditional foreign policy alignments. Dissanayake, the head of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), carries a political legacy rooted in Marxist-Leninist ideologies. For decades, the JVP has viewed India not as a friendly neighbor but as a potential supreme leader seeking undue influence over the island. The party’s vehement opposition to the Indo-Lanka Accord of 1987, which introduced Indian peacekeepers into Sri Lanka, cemented its anti-Indian stance. Even today, the JVP remains critical of what it perceives as India’s interference in Sri Lanka’s politics and economy.
Dissanayake’s rise has not gone unnoticed by India. In a surprising diplomatic gesture, senior Indian officials, including external affairs minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, welcomed the NPP leader to India for bilateral talks. While the red carpet may seem at odds with JVP’s historically hostile view of India, it underscores India’s growing awareness of the shifting political landscape in Sri Lanka. The question remains: will Dissanayake, if elected, soften his stance on India, or will his leadership spark renewed tensions between the two countries.

In contrast to Dissanayake’s combative past, Sajith Premadasa, another leading candidate, advocates for a more nuanced approach. Premadasa, son of the late Ranasinghe Premadasa—a staunch objector to India’s peacekeeping forces in the 1980s—has adopted a pragmatic view.
While acknowledging India’s substantial support during Sri Lanka’s recent economic crisis, he champions a balanced foreign policy. Premadasa envisions Sri Lanka as a non-aligned nation that maintains strong ties with all major powers, including India, China, and the US. His approach suggests a geopolitical strategy where Sri Lanka can engage India as a strategic partner without alienating other global players. But Premadasa’s challenge will be to ensure that this balancing act doesn’t cause friction with India, which is deeply wary of China’s growing influence in the region.
Then there’s the incumbent, President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who has already earned a reputation as India-friendly. After assuming office last year, Wickremesinghe wasted no time in solidifying ties with New Delhi, embarking on a visit that resulted in heightened cooperation between the two countries. India, too, views Wickremesinghe’s leadership favorably, as he aligns with New Delhi’s strategic goals, especially in light of China’s increasing presence in Sri Lanka. China’s acquisition of the Hambantota port on a 99-year lease has sparked concerns, particularly in India, over potential military activities by Beijing in the Indian Ocean.

Why Sri Lanka’s future course matters to India
With much of South Asia caught in political and economic turbulence, Sri Lanka’s foreign policy has become even more crucial for India. The island nation now stands as one of India’s most important regional partners, especially as many of India’s neighbors drift away from its sphere of influence or face internal strife.
In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s sudden departure to India amid violent protests marked the end of an era. Under Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh had been a reliable ally, acting as a buffer against religious extremism and anti-India sentiments.
Further complicating matters for India, Maldives elected Mohamed Muizzu, a leader who rose to power with an anti-India campaign and has since requested the withdrawal of Indian troops. Although Muizzu attended Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s oath ceremony, his actions signal a tilt towards China, adding tension to India’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.
Meanwhile, Myanmar remains engulfed in civil war, with rebels controlling half the country, and Afghanistan has been under Taliban rule since 2021. Pakistan is also facing political upheaval, with former Prime Minister Imran Khan ousted and the nation’s economy in disarray.
This makes Sri Lanka’s Presidential election extremely important for India– the outcome could significantly shape the island nation’s future relations with India, which is facing a growing challenge in maintaining its dominance in the region.