For years, some conservative voices have framed the declining fertility rate in the United States as a moral crisis and a sign of eroding family values. High-profile figures like Sen JD Vance and Fox News commentator Ashley St. Clair have criticized childless Americans, suggesting that they prioritize personal pleasure over family life.
In 2021, Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, disparaged what he called “childless cat ladies” and criticized their supposed disdain for traditional family values.Last year, St. Clair echoed this sentiment, condemning those without children for seeking self-indulgence instead of pursuing family life.
However, experts argue that the reality behind declining fertility rates is far more complex and rooted in societal and economic challenges rather than individual choice. Researchers point out that declining fertility is a global trend, not unique to the US, and reflects broader issues such as the rising costs of child care, housing, and economic uncertainty.
“I don’t see it as a lack of commitment to family,” said Mary Brinton, a sociologist at Harvard University, as quoted by NYT. “The issues are very much on the societal level and the policy level.”
The US fertility rate has been on a downward trend since the end of the baby boom in the mid-1960s, with a more pronounced decline following the Great Recession of 2008. Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire, noted that many anticipated a temporary delay in childbearing due to the economic downturn, but this rebound never materialized.
In 2022, the total fertility rate dropped to a historic low of 1,616.5 births per 1,000 women, significantly below the replacement level of 2,100 births needed to maintain population size. The Pew Research Center’s recent survey highlights that an increasing number of adults are unlikely to have children, a trend that predates the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, nearly half of US counties reported more deaths than births last year.
Experts point to several factors contributing to this decline. The average age of marriage and first childbirth has risen substantially, with the median age for first marriages at 28 and the average age for first births at 27. Financial barriers, such as high housing costs and student debt, along with inadequate support for working families, are significant obstacles.
Sarah Hayford, director of the Institute for Population Research at Ohio State University, found that many young adults still desire children but face economic and practical barriers that prevent them from achieving this goal. The rising costs of mortgages and child care, coupled with a lack of supportive policies like paid parental leave, exacerbate these difficulties.
Sociologist Karen Benjamin Guzzo of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill believes that a lack of optimism about the future also plays a role. “The decision to have children is the ultimate vote of confidence in the future,” Guzzo said. “When fertility rates are down, it’s because people don’t feel they have a future they’re confident in.”
Efforts to reverse the trend have included proposals like former President Donald Trump’s “baby bonus” and Sen. JD Vance’s suggestions for tax breaks and altered voting systems to incentivize parenthood. However, experts note that there is little evidence that such policies are effective on their own. Instead, addressing broader societal issues such as affordable housing, student loan debt, and parental leave may be more effective in encouraging higher birth rates.
“In our view, every policy is a family policy,” Guzzo said, emphasizing the need for comprehensive changes to support prospective parents and families.
In 2021, Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, disparaged what he called “childless cat ladies” and criticized their supposed disdain for traditional family values.Last year, St. Clair echoed this sentiment, condemning those without children for seeking self-indulgence instead of pursuing family life.
However, experts argue that the reality behind declining fertility rates is far more complex and rooted in societal and economic challenges rather than individual choice. Researchers point out that declining fertility is a global trend, not unique to the US, and reflects broader issues such as the rising costs of child care, housing, and economic uncertainty.
“I don’t see it as a lack of commitment to family,” said Mary Brinton, a sociologist at Harvard University, as quoted by NYT. “The issues are very much on the societal level and the policy level.”
The US fertility rate has been on a downward trend since the end of the baby boom in the mid-1960s, with a more pronounced decline following the Great Recession of 2008. Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire, noted that many anticipated a temporary delay in childbearing due to the economic downturn, but this rebound never materialized.
In 2022, the total fertility rate dropped to a historic low of 1,616.5 births per 1,000 women, significantly below the replacement level of 2,100 births needed to maintain population size. The Pew Research Center’s recent survey highlights that an increasing number of adults are unlikely to have children, a trend that predates the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, nearly half of US counties reported more deaths than births last year.
Experts point to several factors contributing to this decline. The average age of marriage and first childbirth has risen substantially, with the median age for first marriages at 28 and the average age for first births at 27. Financial barriers, such as high housing costs and student debt, along with inadequate support for working families, are significant obstacles.
Sarah Hayford, director of the Institute for Population Research at Ohio State University, found that many young adults still desire children but face economic and practical barriers that prevent them from achieving this goal. The rising costs of mortgages and child care, coupled with a lack of supportive policies like paid parental leave, exacerbate these difficulties.
Sociologist Karen Benjamin Guzzo of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill believes that a lack of optimism about the future also plays a role. “The decision to have children is the ultimate vote of confidence in the future,” Guzzo said. “When fertility rates are down, it’s because people don’t feel they have a future they’re confident in.”
Efforts to reverse the trend have included proposals like former President Donald Trump’s “baby bonus” and Sen. JD Vance’s suggestions for tax breaks and altered voting systems to incentivize parenthood. However, experts note that there is little evidence that such policies are effective on their own. Instead, addressing broader societal issues such as affordable housing, student loan debt, and parental leave may be more effective in encouraging higher birth rates.
“In our view, every policy is a family policy,” Guzzo said, emphasizing the need for comprehensive changes to support prospective parents and families.
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