President Joe Biden has made an unexpected policy shift by granting Ukraine permission to deploy American-provided long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia. This significant decision concludes a prolonged period of strategic deliberation that had left Ukraine in a state of uncertainty since the conflict’s beginning.
Driving the news
- The Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukrainians to use the long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, was a response to Russia’s unexpected move to deploy North Korean troops in the conflict, a New York Times report said quoting US officials.
- A US official noted the surge of North Korean forces—estimated to exceed 10,000 troops in the strategically critical Kursk region—has created an exigency that could not be ignored.
- The ATACMS provides military commanders with the capability to strike targets deep behind enemy lines, enhancing operational flexibility and effectiveness in modern warfare
- The Russian military is gearing up for a significant offensive involving an estimated 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, aimed at entrenched Ukrainian positions in Kursk. The objective of this assault is to reclaim the Russian territory that Ukrainian forces captured in August.
- In response, Ukraine could deploy ATACMS missiles to target Russian and North Korean troop concentrations, critical military assets, logistics hubs, ammunition depots, and supply lines deep within Russian territory. Such strikes could disrupt and weaken the effectiveness of the anticipated Russian-North Korean counteroffensive, providing Ukraine with a strategic advantage.
Why it matters
- The decision marks one of Biden’s last major acts before handing over power to President-elect
Donald Trump in January 2025. - The authorization to use the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes inside Russia signals an important shift in US support for Ukraine. Previously, Washington had refrained from such escalatory measures, fearing they might provoke Russia into a broader conflict that could draw Nato into direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed adversary.
- However, Biden’s decision reflects mounting concerns over Russia’s intensifying military campaign, now backed by North Korean troops and resources.
- Ukraine’s Nato allies, including key players like the UK and France, have also faced internal debates over allowing such strikes. The US green light could pressure these allies to reconsider their own restrictions on military support. For Ukraine, this development comes as both a strategic opportunity and a test of its ability to leverage long-range strikes to disrupt Russian supply chains and military assets.
- The decision, however, takes place against a backdrop of shifting geopolitical currents as Trump, who has expressed skepticism about unconditional US support for Ukraine, prepares to take office.
- Nearly two months before demoting office, Biden’s upping the ante against Russia and Putin may put incoming Trump administration in a fix. Trump’s public rhetoric on the campaign trail included promises to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 24 hours of taking office.
The big picture
- This latest move continues a familiar pattern: initial US reluctance to provide Ukraine with advanced weaponry followed by eventual approval under sustained pressure from Kyiv and its supporters.
- The ATACMS approval mirrors earlier debates over providing HIMARS systems, Abrams tanks, and F-16 fighter jets. The Biden administration’s longstanding concern about escalation has often led to hesitation, but recent developments forced a reassessment. The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia’s conflict zone was a tipping point, signaling an escalation that Washington deemed necessary to counter.
- Experts agree that while ATACMS could offer Ukraine strategic gains by targeting Russian military logistics and command centers deeper into Russian territory, their impact on the overall trajectory of the war is limited by their scarcity. Ukraine has been operating with a constrained supply of long-range munitions, making each missile strike a high-stakes calculation.
- Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long urged the US and its allies to lift restrictions on long-range strikes, arguing that such capabilities are crucial to countering Russian offensives. Following Biden’s decision, Zelensky said, “Strikes are not made with words. The missiles will speak for themselves,” emphasizing readiness without confirming immediate plans.
Zoom In
North Korea’s involvement has introduced a new layer of complexity to the conflict. Intelligence reports estimate that over 10,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia, focusing primarily on the contested Kursk region, which Ukraine had reclaimed in part during a counteroffensive in August.
This deployment not only bolsters Russian manpower but also signals an expanding international dimension to the war, drawing the attention of Washington and its Indo-Pacific allies. Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland’s foreign minister, underscored the significance of the US move, saying, “President Biden responded to the entry of North Korean troops… in a language that Putin understands.”
The North Korean presence also has implications for Ukraine’s strategy. Analysts predict that with ATACMS now in play, Kyiv may target logistical hubs and military installations where these troops are stationed. The move is intended to disrupt supply routes and complicate Russian advances, putting added pressure on the Kremlin’s war machine.
What they are saying
- Reactions have ranged from supportive to critical. Nicholas Williams, a former senior Nato official, described the authorization as “significant in terms of the end game,” suggesting it could strengthen Ukraine’s hand in future negotiations.
- However, critics, including Donald Trump Jr, have accused Biden of setting the stage for escalation. Trump Jr took to social media, saying, “The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get
World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace.” - The Kremlin accused Biden of intensifying the conflict in Ukraine by authorizing Kyiv to use long-range missiles supplied by Washington to hit targets within Russia.
- “It’s obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take steps in order to continue fuelling the fire and provoke a further escalation of tensions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
- “These guys, Biden’s administration, is trying to escalate the situation to the maximum while they still have power and are still in office,” Russian lawmaker Maria Butina told Reuters.
- “I have a great hope that (Donald) Trump will overcome this decision if this has been made because they are seriously risking the start of World War Three which is not in anybody’s interest, ” Butina added.
- Andrei Klishas, a senior member of Russia’s Federation Council, commented on social media that such actions could result in “the Ukrainian statehood in complete ruins by morning,” reflecting the severity of the potential response.
- A Western diplomat in Kyiv, speaking to BBC on condition of anonymity, remarked, “I don’t think it will be decisive.” “However, it’s an overdue symbolic decision to raise the stakes and demonstrate military support to Ukraine,” the diplomat added. “It can raise the war cost for Russia.”
- Within the US, the decision has rekindled debates among lawmakers. Republican Representative Mike Turner, chair of the House Intelligence Committee, called the move “long overdue” but noted that “there are still too many restrictions on Ukraine.” He added that this step could apply pressure on President-elect Trump to reassess how he plans to approach the conflict when he takes office.
Between the lines
Biden’s authorization illustrates the administration’s tightrope walk between providing Ukraine with the tools it needs and avoiding a direct clash with Russia. The decision comes after months of resistance, with US officials concerned about potential retaliation and the depletion of ATACMS stockpiles. The weapon’s long-range capability—up to 190 miles—enables Ukraine to strike critical Russian military assets that were previously beyond reach. This could disrupt Russian command structures and airfields, which are essential for sustaining Moscow’s war efforts.
Despite these potential benefits, there are risks involved. Moscow has hinted at retaliatory measures that could extend beyond Ukraine and impact Nato member states. Russia’s intelligence services have been linked to sabotage incidents in Europe, raising fears of covert actions as part of its response strategy.
What’s next
- Ukraine is expected to conduct its first long-range strikes soon, which could influence battlefield dynamics and negotiations ahead of Trump’s inauguration.
- The next administration’s policy toward Ukraine remains uncertain, especially given Trump’s previous statements about reducing US military support and prioritizing diplomatic solutions. Trump’s incoming national security advisor, Mike Waltz, has already expressed skepticism about continued financial and military aid, calling it a “stalemate.”
- This policy shift may also push European allies to reconsider their positions. Countries like the UK and Germany have been cautious about supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles, such as the Storm Shadow and Taurus systems, due to the risk of escalation. Biden’s decision could encourage these nations to align their policies more closely with Washington’s new stance.
The bottom line
Biden’s authorization to allow Ukraine to strike deep within Russian territory represents both an opportunity and a challenge. It aims to empower Ukraine while signaling resolve to counter increasing threats from Russia’s allies like North Korea. As Trump prepares to take office with pledges of peace and reduced support, the stakes for Ukraine’s strategic position—and the future of US involvement—are higher than ever. The decision’s long-term effects on the conflict and its potential to shape diplomatic outcomes will be closely watched by allies and adversaries alike.
(With inputs from agencies)
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