NEW DELHI: Donald Trump’s victory could cast a shadow over the upcoming UN climate conference (CO) in Baku as there is a strong possibility that the US under the Republican president may either withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement, like what he did in his first term, or substantially scale down its climate action if he finds obstacles in leaving the Senate-approved global accord.
It won’t be a surprise if Trump, who has called climate change a “hoax” several times, announces his intention to dump all mitigation actions which the US under Joe Biden took after rejoining the Paris accord in 2021. If that happens, it’ll be a big blow to efforts of countries to make CO a success in terms of mobilising new finance for post-2025 climate actions.
The biggest blow would, however, be if the US also withdraws from the UN climate body, a possibility of which was discussed in the run-up to the presidential election.
In that case, it won’t be possible for future US presidents to rejoin it unless the Senate gives approval – a difficult proposition depending on the makeup of the Congress.
Though non-state actors or sub-national players from the US, backed by private businesses, would continue to work on the pledges made under the Paris deal, like what they did during 2017-20 in the form of “we are still in” campaign, the American withdrawal from the 2015 accord would be a major blow to the global efforts to reach net-zero by 2050.
The US is not only the world’s largest historical emitter of greenhouse gas, but also the second biggest current polluter, and therefore, its active mitigation action is needed for a carbon neutral future. Experts spoke about how Trump even publicly criticised the Inflation Reduction Act, which serves the largest climate spending of the Biden administration in terms of tax incentives and investments. They believe a reversal of this wouldimpact the ongoing actions.
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