As the United States enters election day, November 5, tens of millions of Americans have already cast their ballots, with record early voting numbers in battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina.
In Georgia alone—where voters have swung between Republican and Democratic candidates in the last two presidential elections—over 4 million ballots were cast early, leading one top official to suggest that election day itself might see unusually low turnout at the polls.
As of Monday, the Associated Press reported approximately 82 million early votes nationwide, slightly more than half of the total turnout in the 2020 presidential election.
This data gives insight into early voting patterns but doesn’t predict the outcome, as it neither shows voter choices nor includes those heading to the polls today.
Here are three key takeaways on early voting trends:
Low voting turnout from 2020 election levels
Nationwide, early voting turnout this year has dropped compared to the pandemic-affected 2020 election. In that election, over 110 million Americans—about 70% of all voters—cast ballots ahead of election day, either in person or by mail.
This year, pre-election day voting is anticipated to account for closer to 50% of the total vote, reflecting a shift similar to the 2022 midterms, CNN reports.
While overall early voting is down, some states saw an increase in early in-person voting compared to 2020. Key battlegrounds like North Carolina and Georgia recorded high early in-person turnout, with Georgia surpassing its 2020 numbers. North Carolina’s total early votes, however, fell below 2020 levels due to fewer people voting by mail.
Republican pre-election vote share grows compared to 2020 polls
Republicans have increased their share of pre-election votes compared to 2020, with the Trump campaign actively encouraging early and mail-in voting this year—a departure from its previous stance discouraging pre-election voting.
According to Catalist data from 27 states, registered Democrats have cast 37% of early ballots, while registered Republicans have cast 35%, narrowing the partisan gap significantly. In 2020, Democrats held a 12-point advantage at this stage in these same states, with 42% of early ballots from Democrats versus 30% from Republicans.
Despite a larger share of Republicans voting early compared to 2020, recent CNN polling indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading among early voters, including in all battleground states except Nevada.
Narrowing gender gap in early voting: Women still outpace men
In the seven most competitive states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—the early voting gender gap resembles that of the 2020 and 2022 elections. According to Catalist data, about 1.8 million more women than men have cast early ballots in these states.
However, this gap is smaller than it was at the same point in 2020, partly due to lower early voting turnout overall and a slightly narrower percentage difference between male and female voters.
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