The series of protests leading to regime changes in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and now Syria illustrate a pattern where public discontent has escalated into mass movements capable of toppling long-standing governments. Could Iran be the next?
Driving the news
- With Damascus still in a celebratory mood, Assad’s prime minister, Mohammed Jalali, agreed on Monday to transfer power to the rebel-led Salvation government, an administration operating from rebel-held territory in northwest Syria.
- The primary rebel commander, Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed
al-Golani , met with Jalali and Vice President Faisal Mekdad to discuss plans for a transitional government, according to a source familiar with the discussions cited by Reuters. Jalali indicated that the handover process might take several days. - The rapid and overwhelming advance of the militia alliance led by
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaida affiliate, marks a generational shift in the Middle East’s political landscape. - Since its onset in 2011, the civil war has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, sparked one of the largest refugee crises of the modern era, and devastated Syria’s cities, countryside, and economy under the weight of global sanctions.
- Despite this significant shift, the rebel alliance has yet to outline its vision for Syria’s future, leaving uncertainty in a region with no established framework for such a transition.
Why it matters
- The sudden collapse of
Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria , paired with the assassination ofHezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, has thrown the Middle East into a tumultuous period. - The rapid demise of two pivotal elements in Iran’s “axis of resistance” marks one of the most significant geopolitical shifts in decades.
- Hezbollah, long Iran’s most powerful non-state ally, has suffered immense losses in Syria and against Israel.
- Iraq’s militias, while still active, lack the unity and strategic cohesion to sustain Iran’s broader ambitions.
- The Houthis in Yemen, though aligned with Tehran, remain geographically isolated and incapable of replacing Syria’s strategic value.
- Iran’s massive investments in Syria, ranging from oil infrastructure to telecommunications, have effectively vanished. The fall of Assad also disrupts critical trade routes and access to Mediterranean ports, further straining Iran’s battered economy.
The big picture:Internal repercussions for Iran
Assad’s fall not only reshapes regional dynamics but also sends ripples through Iran’s domestic landscape. Khamenei’s leadership and the regime’s grip on power face intensified scrutiny.
1.Morale boost for opposition forces
The rapid fall of Assad, once deemed untouchable, emboldens Iranian dissidents. For a populace grappling with economic despair, political repression, and systemic corruption, the Syrian experience serves as a vivid reminder of authoritarian fragility.
2. Perception of weakness: Iran’s failure to prevent Assad’s ouster, despite significant investments, presents the regime as vulnerable and fallible.
3.Historical precedents: Iran has witnessed waves of protests, from the Green Movement in 2009 to the hijab protests in 2022. These movements, though suppressed, indicate a simmering discontent that could reignite.
4. Economic desperation: The collapse of the Syrian regime exacerbates Iran’s economic woes. Billions lost in investments and diminished oil revenues from its proxy network leave Tehran scrambling to stabilize its economy.
5. Public discontent: As Iranians struggle with inflation, unemployment, and currency devaluation, the regime’s foreign adventures increasingly become a focal point of public anger. Protesters already chant, “Leave Syria; think of us,” reflecting growing resentment over wasted resources.
6. Loss of strategic trade routes: Iran’s inability to leverage Syrian trade routes and ports further isolates its economy.
Shifting dynamics in the region
Turkey’s ascendancy: Ankara emerges as the most significant external player in Syria, capitalizing on Assad’s fall to reinforce its influence over Syrian rebels and Kurdish territories. Turkey’s involvement in the rebel offensive and its strategic presence on the ground position it as a key arbiter in post-Assad Syria. By managing Kurdish power and securing Syrian territory along its borders, Turkey strengthens its regional hand.
Israel’s role: Israeli strikes, which weakened Hezbollah and contributed to Nasrallah’s death, played a critical role in undermining Assad’s regime. Israel’s actions not only disrupted Iranian supply chains but also demonstrated its capacity to influence outcomes in neighboring conflicts.
The collapse of Assad limits Iran’s ability to arm Hezbollah and other allies, significantly reducing threats to Israeli security.
Russia’s retreat: Once a staunch ally of Assad, Russia’s declining interest in Syria due to its focus on Ukraine left a power vacuum that Iran could not fill alone. Moscow’s reduced involvement underscores the limits of its ability to sustain long-term alliances in the region.
What they are saying
- Iran: The commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards stated on Tuesday that the Islamic Republic remained strong despite the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria, according to Iranian media reports. “We have not been weakened and Iran’s power has not diminished,” Hossein Salami was quoted as saying during a closed session with members of parliament.
- President-elect
Donald Trump : Trump attributed Assad’s fall to Russia’s waning commitment, noting that Moscow’s pivot to Ukraine diverted crucial support from Syria. He criticized Russia’s initial intervention as a mistake that prolonged Assad’s rule. - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: Netanyahu emphasized Israel’s decisive role in dismantling Hezbollah’s capabilities and its contributions to Assad’s vulnerability. “This victory is a testament to our commitment to ensuring regional stability,” he remarked.
- Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan: Fidan acknowledged Ankara’s evolving stance toward Assad, explaining that earlier attempts at diplomacy failed to produce meaningful results, prompting Turkey to support the rebel offensive indirectly.
The return of Trump
Iran also needs to prepare for the return of US president-elect Donald Trump to the White House. During his first term, Trump withdrew from a 2015 agreement in which the Islamic Republic committed to halting its nuclear program in exchange for relief from longstanding economic sanctions.
Additionally, Trump authorized the 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
This time again, Trump has pledged to reinstate his “maximum pressure” strategy against Tehran, and his choice for secretary of state, Marco Rubio, is strongly pro-Israel and outspokenly critical of Iran.
Lessons from regional precedents
Iran’s potential unraveling can be contextualized by examining recent collapses in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and now Syria.
1. Sri Lanka: Economic mismanagement
Sri Lanka’s crisis stemmed from economic mismanagement, unsustainable debt, and public discontent. Iran faces a similar trajectory, with a collapsing currency and dwindling oil revenues.
2. Bangladesh: Political corruption
In Bangladesh, entrenched corruption and political instability eroded public trust, leading to widespread protests. Iran’s endemic corruption, coupled with political repression, mirrors these challenges.
3. Syria: Authoritarian fragility
Assad’s fall underscores the limits of authoritarian resilience when faced with coordinated internal and external pressures. Iran’s regime, while more robust, shares vulnerabilities, particularly in its inability to address domestic grievances.
The bottom line
The downfall of Assad’s regime marks a watershed moment for the Middle East, severely undermining Iran’s regional ambitions and exposing its vulnerabilities.
For Tehran, the implications extend far beyond Syria, threatening its influence, economy, and internal stability. As opposition forces within Iran draw inspiration from Syria’s rapid transformation, the Ayatollahs may soon find themselves grappling with challenges on all fronts.
While Iran’s size, military capabilities, and fractured opposition make a Syrian-style collapse less likely in the short term, the parallels are hard to ignore. The fall of Assad and the weakening of Hezbollah strip Tehran of its regional deterrents, leaving the regime increasingly exposed.
The Assad regime’s collapse is a testament to how quickly political fortunes can change in the Middle East. While it’s too early to predict a domino effect leading to regime change in Iran, the psychological and strategic impacts are undeniable.
(With inputs from agencies)
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