Stability or civil war? What lies ahead for post-Assad Syria – Times of India

An opposition fighter steps on a broken bust of the late Syrian President Hafez Assad in Damascus, Syria, Sunday December 8, 2024. (AP)

Islamist-led rebels announced they had captured Damascus on Sunday, forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee and bringing an end to over 50 years of Baath Party rule in Syria.
People in Damascus were seen celebrating in the streets as rebel groups declared the city free, saying: “We declare the city of Damascus free.” A war monitor also reported the president’s departure. The announcement comes shortly after the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group began an offensive against the Assad regime on November 27 from their base in Idlib, in northwestern Syria.
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The rebels released a statement on Telegram, saying, “After 50 years of oppression under Baath rule, and 13 years of crimes and tyranny and (forced) displacement. We announce today the end of this dark period and the start of a new era for Syria.”
The fall of Assad was unexpected just days ago. He became president in 2000 after his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had ruled Syria for 29 years. Initially, there was hope he would lead differently, but those hopes quickly faded.
Assad is known for his violent suppression of protests in 2011, which led to a civil war. The conflict caused over half a million deaths and displaced approx six million people.
Assad had maintained power with the support of Russia and Iran. Russia provided air power, while Iran sent military advisors, and Hezbollah, supported by Iran, contributed fighters. The rebels’ success signals a significant change in the region’s power dynamics.
Iran’s influence has been affected, as Syria was a critical link in its connection to Hezbollah and the transfer of weapons. Hezbollah has also been weakened after a prolonged conflict with Israel. The future of other Iranian-supported groups, such as the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, is now uncertain. These groups, along with Hamas in Gaza, formed what Iran called the Axis of Resistance, which has now been significantly impacted.
The changes are welcomed in Israel, where Iran is considered a threat. Analysts suggest the offensive may have had Turkey’s support, though Turkey denies backing HTS. Turkey had previously pushed Assad to negotiate a solution to the conflict to enable the return of Syrian refugees, including the three million currently in Turkey, but Assad refused.
What lies ahead for Syria?
The future of Syria remains uncertain following the fall of the Assad regime, with significant challenges ahead.
HTS, which has roots in al-Qaeda and is classified as a terrorist organization by the US and other Western countries, is a key player in the current scenario. Despite attempts to rebrand as a nationalist force with recent diplomatic messaging, there is widespread skepticism about their intentions. Concerns grow over what they might do now that the regime has fallen.
Also read: Who are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, jihadist group behind resurgence of Syria conflict?
The aftermath of Assad’s removal risks creating a dangerous power vacuum. Syria is fragmented both geographically and socially, making this a dangerous moment.
Divisions between different rebel groups controlling various regions may lead to competition for power. Without a coordinated effort to manage this transition, the country could descend into further violence and chaos.
Hatred towards former Assad loyalists is another potential source of unrest. Decades of oppressive rule have left deep scars, and addressing this anger will be challenging.
Questions about Syria’s governance loom large. No clear authority or unified vision exists among the rebel factions, raising the possibility of further civil war if power-sharing arrangements cannot be agreed upon.
Meanwhile, the involvement of foreign powers like Russia and Iran complicates the situation further. Although Russia and Iran withdrew support from Assad as his defeat became inevitable, they are unlikely to disengage from Syria entirely.
Russia’s military bases on the Mediterranean coast are strategically vital, and losing them would be a significant setback.
For Iran, the collapse of Assad and the weakening of Hezbollah represents a major blow to its influence in the region, but it may still seek to maintain a foothold in Syria.
Syria’s civil war began after the repression of anti-government protests in 2011 and spiralled into a complex conflict drawing in foreign armies and jihadists, killing more than half a million people.
The lightning rebel offensive came after four years of relative calm on the front lines.
While the fall of the Assad regime certainly is a new chapter for Syria, the challenges ahead suggest that stability and peace may remain elusive for some time.