The Assad regime is facing its most significant threat in nearly a decade as Syrian rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), continue their rapid advance. The capture of Hama, a city with symbolic and strategic importance, follows the stunning fall of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, earlier this month.
Driving the news
- The opposition, spearheaded by HTS, has seized this moment of weakness to strike decisive blows against Assad’s forces. After years of stagnation, the rebels’ rapid advance highlights the Syrian military’s vulnerabilities, including low morale, weakened manpower, and insufficient resources.
- HTS, previously affiliated with al-Qaida and formerly known as the Nusra Front, is striving to position itself as a credible alternative to President
Bashar al-Assad , according to analysts. - Led by
Abu Mohammed al-Golani , the Islamist group remains classified as a terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations. However, over the years, HTS has made significant efforts to reshape and soften its image. - The fall of Aleppo and Hama demonstrates the rebels’ strategic acumen. By targeting major urban centers, they are systematically dismantling the regime’s control over western Syria. Homs, their next likely target, is particularly critical. Its capture would sever the main land route connecting Damascus to the Mediterranean coast, isolating Assad from his Alawite strongholds.
- Hama holds both strategic and symbolic significance. Geographically, it serves as a crucial junction linking northern and southern Syria. Historically, it is remembered as the site of a 1982 massacre ordered by Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, which crushed an Islamist uprising and killed tens of thousands. The city also became a flashpoint for protests during the Arab Spring in 2011.
Why it matters
- The fall of Hama signals the regime’s weakening grip, even in areas once considered its heartland. For opposition forces, reclaiming the city is both a military victory and a symbolic act of defiance against decades of Assad family rule.
- As Syrian government defenses crumble, the question looms: can Bashar al-Assad’s regime survive?
- “When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” rebel lead al-Jolani told CNN.
- Israeli intelligence officials have been taken by surprise at the unexpectedly swift collapse of the Syrian army’s defense lines in the past 24 hours, according to two senior Israeli officials who spoke to Axios.
- One senior Israeli official noted that the likelihood of Damascus falling now appears significantly higher than it did just a short time ago. A US official echoed this assessment, highlighting the Syrian Army’s apparent lack of resistance. “The Syrian military forces are not really fighting,” the official told Axios.
- The potential collapse of Assad’s government would mark a pivotal moment in Syria’s prolonged civil war, reshaping the power dynamics of the Middle East.
The big picture: The fragility of Assad’s alliance
Assad’s most dependable allies, Russia and Iran, now face difficult decisions. Both powers have devoted substantial resources to sustaining his regime over the past decade, and their stakes in Syria extend beyond loyalty to Assad himself.
For Russia, its naval base in Tartus and airbase in Latakia are key footholds in the eastern Mediterranean, vital for Moscow’s influence in the Middle East and Africa. Meanwhile, Syria represents a lynchpin in Iran’s regional strategy, serving as a corridor for arms and influence stretching to Hezbollah in Lebanon and other proxies near Israel.
Yet both backers are overcommitted. Russia is embroiled in its war in Ukraine, leaving limited capacity for a large-scale intervention in Syria akin to 2015. Moscow’s airstrikes on rebel positions have been significant but insufficient.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s vague statement—“We will evaluate the level of assistance needed”—highlights Moscow’s hesitation.
Similarly, Iran, mired in conflicts across Gaza, Lebanon, and Iraq, faces immense strain. Tehran has hinted it may send reinforcements to Homs, but its resources are stretched thin. Hezbollah, its most formidable regional proxy, has been severely depleted after months of fighting with Israel.
Syrian rebels capture second major city as army withdraws from Hama
What they are saying
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), described the capture of Hama as a “conquering that is not vengeful, but one of mercy and compassion,” emphasizing a departure from past grievances.
Jihad Yazigi, editor of the Syria Report newsletter, noted: “The big battle is the one coming against Homs. If Homs falls, we are talking of a potential change of regime.”
Dareen Khalifa, senior adviser with the International Crisis Group, called it “a massive win for the rebels and a strategic blow for the [Syrian] regime,” while questioning Assad’s ability to survive the ongoing war.
Rami Abdurrahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, declared: “The process leading to the fall of the regime has started.”
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed the urgency for a “UN-facilitated political process” to end the conflict, urging all sides to engage seriously in talks.
“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani to CNN
Regional ripple effects
- The collapse of Assad’s regime would have far-reaching implications for the Middle East. It could trigger a power vacuum, leading to new alliances and conflicts. For example:
- Iran and Hezbollah may double down on their presence in Lebanon, intensifying tensions with Israel.
- Turkey could solidify its control over northern Syria, increasing its leverage against Kurdish forces.
- Saudi Arabia and other Arab states might seek to shape post-Assad Syria in ways that counter Iran’s influence.
- For the rebels, consolidating their gains and governing captured territories will be a critical test. HTS, despite its claims of moderation, remains a designated terrorist organization in the US and other countries. Ensuring stability in cities like Aleppo and Hama will require bridging deep-seated sectarian and ideological divides among Syria’s diverse population.
Between the lines
Turkey, meanwhile, sees an opportunity to expand its influence. Ankara has long supported Syrian opposition groups and views the rebel advances as a chance to consolidate power in northern Syria. However, Turkey’s support for HTS raises concerns about further empowering extremist factions in the region.
The US and Israel are also closely monitoring the situation. Washington, with its focus on countering Islamic State remnants, has been cautious in its response. Israel, on the other hand, has escalated airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria, seeking to prevent Tehran from exploiting the chaos to reinforce Hezbollah.
What’s next
Rebel forces are advancing toward Homs, a city of immense strategic value. Its fall would deal a catastrophic blow to Assad, potentially cutting Damascus off from vital coastal regions. Homs is also home to one of Syria’s two state-run oil refineries, making it a critical economic asset.
If the rebels capture Homs, they could potentially threaten Damascus itself. Such a scenario would force Assad and his allies to retreat to the coastal strongholds of Latakia and Tartus, leaving much of Syria in rebel hands.
The bottom line
The Syrian civil war, which has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions, is entering a new and potentially decisive phase. Assad’s fall is no longer an unthinkable scenario, but its realization would unleash a cascade of challenges for Syria and the broader region.
For Russia and Iran, Assad’s survival is more than a matter of loyalty—it is a cornerstone of their Middle East strategy. Yet, their ability to act decisively is constrained by other commitments, leaving the future of Syria hanging in the balance.
(With inputs from agencies)
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