The United States has expressed alarm over Pakistan’s ongoing development of long-range ballistic missiles, a move Washington sees as an emerging security threat.
Driving the news
- Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, US deputy national security adviser
Jon Finer described Pakistan’s missile advancements as a troubling shift in the country’s strategic posture. - “Pakistan has developed increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors,” Finer said.
- “If these trends continue, Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States.”
- This revelation comes on the heels of Washington imposing a fresh wave of sanctions on Pakistan’s missile program. For the first time, the measures target Pakistan’s state-run National Development Complex, alongside three private Karachi-based companies accused of supporting missile development.
Why it matters
- Finer’s revelation marks a stark turning point in US-Pakistan relations, underscoring a broader erosion of trust since the 2021 US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Historically viewed as a key partner in counterterrorism, Pakistan’s ballistic missile advancements are now seen as a direct challenge to US security.
- The move also raises critical questions about whether Pakistan’s missile program, long designed as a counter to India, is shifting toward broader ambitions with potentially global consequences.
- Two senior US officials, speaking anonymously, revealed that Washington has repeatedly pressed Islamabad to explain the development of more powerful rocket engines but received evasive responses. “They don’t acknowledge our concerns. They tell us we are biased,” said one official.
- This development places Pakistan alongside nations like Russia, North Korea, and China—states identified by the US as adversaries with nuclear weapons and missile systems capable of reaching American soil.
- The strain in US-Pakistan relations reflects a broader geopolitical realignment in South Asia. Pakistan continues to cultivate strong ties with China while voicing concerns about US defense cooperation with India, including technology transfers and joint missile projects.
The big picture
Meanwhile, Washington’s public condemnation of Pakistan’s missile program could fuel further regional instability.
Sanctions imposed: The US State Department sanctioned Pakistan’s NDC for its involvement in developing long-range missile systems. This marks the first time a Pakistani state-owned enterprise has faced direct sanctions tied to missile production. Three Karachi-based companies—Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International, and Rockside Enterprise—were also sanctioned for supporting the program.
The US has sanctioned Pakistan’s National Development Complex over proliferation-related concerns tied to ballistic missile development.This is a big deal; unlike recent rounds of US sanctions, this targets a government entity instead of just companies.
Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute
Pakistani response: Islamabad has dismissed the US sanctions as “discriminatory” and warned that such actions could upset the region’s strategic balance. Its Foreign Office defended the missile program as “defensive in nature,” aimed solely at countering Indian aggression and preserving peace in South Asia.
Pakistani officials argue that their missile program is not intended to target the US. Diplomatic sources in Islamabad insist the program is designed to counter perceived threats from India, with whom Pakistan has fought three wars since 1947, a Reuters report said.
In a strongly worded statement, the Pakistani Foreign Office accused the US of “double standards.” It criticized Washington for imposing sanctions on Pakistani entities while granting India waivers for advanced military technology. “Such policies have dangerous implications for the strategic stability of our region and beyond,” the statement read.
Zoom in: Eroding US-Pakistan ties
- The tensions over Pakistan’s missile program reflect a larger deterioration in the once-robust US-Pakistan partnership.
- Historical context: Pakistan was a key ally during the Cold War and a central partner in the US-led war on terror, particularly after the 9/11 attacks. However, relations have soured over the years due to Pakistan’s alleged support for Taliban factions and its increasingly close ties with China.
- India factor: The US-India defense relationship has grown stronger in recent years, underpinned by agreements like the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA). Washington has facilitated India’s acquisition of advanced missile systems, which has drawn criticism from Islamabad for allegedly undermining regional stability.
What it means for India
Accelerating India’s missile programs: Pakistan’s development of long-range missiles may prompt India to fast-track its missile initiatives, particularly the Agni series, and enhance its Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) systems.
India’s strategic reassessment: Pakistan’s expanded missile range could push India to reevaluate its nuclear policies, potentially reconsidering its no-first-use stance or enhancing second-strike capabilities.
Proxy conflicts: Pakistan’s growing confidence, potentially bolstered by Chinese support, might lead to more aggressive postures, including cross-border skirmishes.
Nuclear security risks: The growing political instability in Pakistan increases the risk of its nuclear assets falling into the hands of radical groups, posing a significant threat to India and the world.
Strengthening India-US ties: Pakistan’s missile advancements could lead to closer India-US defense cooperation, including technology transfers and intelligence sharing.
What’s next
- The US administration is expected to maintain pressure on Pakistan through diplomatic channels and additional sanctions, while continuing to bolster ties with India.
- The US appears to view Pakistan’s missile development as a broader shift in its strategic posture. Finer emphasized that Pakistan’s actions raise “real questions” about its intentions, particularly given its long-standing partnership with the US in security and counterterrorism.
- Washington is also likely to encourage other countries to scrutinize Pakistan’s missile program as part of broader non-proliferation efforts.
- Pakistan, however, is expected to deepen its reliance on China, which has historically supported its missile program and nuclear ambitions.
(With inputs from agencies)
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