GOP Senate Hopefuls Face Long Odds in Race to Challenge Virginia’s Mark Warner

This article was reprinted with permission from Virginia Mercury.

A Long Winning Streak for Democrats

Imagine Virginia is a playground where, for almost 25 years, one team (the Democrats) has won every game for the big Senate seat. The other team (Republicans) keeps trying but hasn’t won since 2002.

• The last Republican from Virginia elected to the U.S. Senate was Sen. John Warner (no relation to today’s Sen. Mark Warner) in 2002.
• Since then, Democrats have won every Senate contest in Virginia.
• Republicans now face another tough climb because President Donald Trump is very unpopular in the state.

Important Point: Virginia Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in nearly a quarter of a century.

How Republicans Pick Their Challenger

Republican voters take the first step on Aug. 4 in a primary election. They will choose one person to challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, who wants a fourth six-year term after 20+ years in statewide office.

The Republicans still in the race are:

• Kim Farington – businesswoman and public accountant
• Bert Mizusawa – retired U.S. Army Col.
• David Williams – businessman

Four others (including state Sen. Bryce Reeves) dropped out before the primary, leaving a smaller group.

Whoever wins will face Warner’s big advantages:

• Statewide name recognition
• Long political resume
• Much more campaign money

Different Paths to the Nomination

All three GOP candidates agree on many core Republican ideas, but each tells a different story on the trail.

• Farington talks mostly about the economy: inflation, high living costs, lower federal spending, tighter borders, more U.S. energy, smaller government.
• Mizusawa uses his national security background: military readiness, foreign policy, energy, government spending.
• Williams presents as a political outsider: shrink federal government, cut taxes, defend constitutional rights.

A political science professor, David Richards, noticed something fun:

All three have worked for the federal government before. Williams and Mizusawa also served in the military. So whoever wins will run as an experienced government insider.

Richards predicts:

1. Farington or Mizusawa will likely win (they poll about even).
2. Williams is behind, raised the least money, and has a vague platform.

Warner’s Fundraising Edge

Campaign money reports show the huge gap (as of March 31):

• Mizusawa: raised ~$192,000; has ~$55,000 left
• Farington: raised ~$125,000; has ~$22,700 left
• Williams: raised ~$55,000; has ~$6,600 left
• Warner: raised nearly $22 million; has $14 million left

Important Point: Even the leading Republicans are out-matched by millions of dollars from Warner’s campaign bank.

Richards says money already separated the Republican field. He also finds it interesting that Farington and Mizusawa take traditional Republican positions with a “MAGA tint” but do not mention Trump.

Why? Because:

• Trump never won Virginia.
• Democrats did very well in recent elections.
• A Trump endorsement might help in the primary but hurt in the main election.

Farington’s focus on affordability (cost of living) may be the main Republican argument in fall: paint Warner as part of the problem.

Warner Enters with Experience and Advantages

While Republicans fight their primary, Warner is a giant in Virginia politics.

• Born in Indiana, built a telecom business, moved to VA in the 1980s.
• Won governor in 2001.
• Elected to U.S. Senate in 2008; reelected in 2014 (by <1%) and 2020 (by 12%+).
• Now Vice Chair of the Intelligence Committee; known as a pragmatic Democrat.
• Touts federal investments in roads, broadband, military towns, and manufacturing.
• Highlights effects of federal healthcare shifts on VA hospitals.

Richards says the race is not Warner’s to lose:

• Warner won 2020 by ~12% with Trump on ballot.
• Tim Kaine won 2024 by ~10% with Trump on ballot.
• With Trump unpopular and economy worries, Warner looks strong.

Summary

Since 2002, Democrats have swept Virginia’s U.S. Senate races. On Aug. 4, Republicans pick from Farington, Mizusawa, or Williams to challenge well-funded, well-known Sen. Mark Warner. All three GOP hopefuls are former federal workers, but they trail Warner massively in money and fame. Experts say Warner is heavily favored, and the Republican nominee will face long odds in the fall.

FAQ

1. Who is running for the Republican nomination against Mark Warner?
Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa, and David Williams are in the race after others dropped out.

2. When is the Republican primary in Virginia?
It is on August 4.

3. Why don’t some Republicans mention Trump?
Because Trump is unpopular in Virginia, and they think silence helps them in the bigger election even if a endorsement might help in the primary.

4. How much money does Warner have compared to the Republicans?
Warner has about $14 million left; the top Republicans have under $56,000 each.

5. Has a Republican won a Virginia Senate race recently?
No. The last was John Warner in 2002.