The Eastern Pacific Is a Tropical Storm Factory, and the Atlantic Basin Shows Signs of Life

By Irene Sans, Yale Climate Connections — July 16, 2026
(Bob Henson contributed to this post.)

Imagine the ocean as a giant kitchen where storms are cooked up. Right now, the Eastern Pacific is cooking a lot, while the Atlantic is just starting to warm up its stove. Let’s break it down like you’re five!

What’s Happening in the Eastern Pacific?

The Pacific hurricane season is getting busy. The Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean where storms form near the U.S.) is “waking up,” but it will have a hard time making big storms over the next few weeks.

• Wind shear (think of it like scissors in the sky that tear storms apart) is strong over the Caribbean.
• Few tropical waves (ripples of rain and wind off Africa that can grow into storms) can survive that wind shear.

But the Eastern Pacific? It’s like a tropical storm factory — making storms one after another!

How many storms so far?

• The Eastern Pacific has already made five named tropical systems, and all were tropical storms.
• On average, the fifth named storm shows up by July 23. We are about 9 days ahead of schedule!
• Usually by July 15, the second hurricane appears. We still have time to catch up.

Important: The Eastern Pacific may be super active because of what could be the strongest El Niño ever.
El Niño is a natural warming of Pacific Ocean water that changes weather worldwide.
NOAA (a U.S. weather science agency) predicts up to 22 named systems this season there.
If that happens, 2026 could tie 1985 and 2015 for second-most named systems ever in that region. Only 1992 had more (27!).

Average Pacific season (1991–2020)

According to NOAA, a normal season had:

• About 15 named storms
• 8 hurricanes
• 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger — very fierce)

Storms That Hit Land in the Pacific

Two storms have already made landfall (that means they reached land):

• Tropical Storm Boris hit southern Mexico.
  • Caused heavy rain and flooding.
  • 4 people died.
  • Damage: at least $81 million.
• Tropical Storm Cristina caused only about $150,000 in damage.
  • But 7 deaths in Central America from rough seas, flooding, and a river overflow.

More Disturbances in the Open Eastern Pacific

A “disturbance” is just a messy area of clouds and rain that might become a storm.

• One disturbance is south of Hawaii and will stay away from the islands.
• Tropical Storm Elida is close to land but not threatening it.
  • It is getting stronger and will likely become the first hurricane of the Eastern Pacific by Thursday evening.
  • Water is warm: 84–86°F (29–30°C) — perfect storm fuel!
  • It should stay a hurricane through Saturday, then hit dry air and wind shear next week.
  • Elida will NOT hit land and won’t threaten Baja California.
  • By early next week, it becomes a post-tropical system (a weak, non-tropical leftover) over cooler water.

Figure 1. NHC shows three areas that may develop in 7 days. Elida is followed by another system (next name: Fausto). They stay away from land. (Image credit: NHC)

• Right where Elida is, another system has a high chance to develop (see red hatched area in Fig. 1).
  • It will form south of Mexico’s central-western coast.
  • Likely becomes the next named storm — Fausto — by early next week.
  • Like Elida, Fausto should stay away from Mexico.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season So Far

• Tropical Storm Arthur was short-lived:

  • Named and gone within 24 hours on June 18 near southeast Texas.
  • Caused over $1 billion in damage across the Gulf Coast and 4 deaths.
  • Most damage was flooding far from where it landed.
  • Cottonport, Louisiana got 29.06 inches (738 mm) of rain in 24 hours — a state record!
• By July 17, we’d normally have 2 named systems.
• Average first hurricane: August 11.
• Average first major hurricane: September 1.

Figure 2. July 16 view: not much in the Gulf, some Saharan dust, and a tropical wave leaving Africa. (Credit: NOAA)

Area to watch near the U.S.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a zone from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to Georgia/South Carolina has a 20% chance of development in 7 days.

• A weak front (a boundary between air masses) sat over the Southeast and Texas.
• Even if it fades, leftover energy might spark a storm early next week.
• It would move north/northeast.
• Even without a named storm, torrential rain could hit western Florida (Big Bend to Tampa Bay).

Important: Florida needs this rain! Extreme drought (very dry conditions) still exists from Big Bend through Gainesville and around Tampa Bay. Spring 2026 was one of Florida’s worst droughts ever.

Figure 3. Drought is shrinking but still extreme in parts of Florida. (Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor)

• What could stop the storm? Northerly wind shear and dry air from the north.
• Florida will still get heavy rain and thunderstorms all weekend.
• If it crosses north Florida into the Atlantic near Georgia/South Carolina, it likely won’t become a full tropical cyclone (the next name is Bertha) and stays weak along the East Coast.
• Areas from Apalachicola to Tampa Bay should prep for repeated storms and up to 6 inches of rain this weekend.

If the system goes slightly west, it would sit over warm water and might grow — but few models show that now. We’ll keep watching!

More Signs of Life in the Atlantic

A fresh tropical wave just left Africa.

• A disturbance is southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
• It’s a little more organized but will move slowly west-northwest at 10 mph.
• It enters a hostile environment (bad for storms) and likely won’t develop.
• Good news: it stays in the open Atlantic and won’t hit land.

Figure 4. NHC shows two low-chance areas: one near Florida, one off Africa. (Credit: NHC)

A Sneak Peek at Future Atlantic Months

Seasonal forecasts (like Colorado State University’s) now predict up to 8 named systems for the rest of the season. Why? The very strong El Niño should calm things.

Figure 5. Blue = low wind shear (good for storms); Red = high wind shear (bad). Average for Aug–Oct. (Credit: TropicalTidbits.com)

• During peak season, strong wind shear should stay over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic.
• But north of 20°N (near the Southeast U.S., East Coast, and Gulf), wind shear is lower — better for storms in August/September.

Figure 6. Orange/red = warmer-than-average water (storm fuel) for Aug–Oct. (Credit: TropicalTidbits.com)

Important: The areas likely to be storm-friendly are closer to land. That means less time to prepare! The Gulf also has very warm water that can cause rapid intensification (a storm getting super strong, super fast).

Summary

• The Eastern Pacific is way ahead with 5 tropical storms and may hit 22 named systems due to a strong El Niño.
• Boris and Cristina caused deaths and damage in Mexico/Central America.
• Elida will be the first Pacific hurricane; Fausto may follow — both stay offshore.
• The Atlantic had brief Arthur ($1B damage). Another system may bring Florida rain.
• A wave off Africa won’t threaten land.
• Later, storms may favor U.S. coastal areas near warm Gulf waters — watch out for fast-growing systems.

FAQ

Q: What is a tropical storm factory?
A: It’s a fun way to say the Eastern Pacific is making lots of tropical storms one after another.

Q: What is wind shear, simply?
A: Wind shear is when wind high up blows differently than wind below, like scissors cutting a storm’s top off so it can’t grow.

Q: Why does El Niño matter for hurricanes?
A: A strong El Niño can increase wind shear in the Atlantic, making fewer storms there, but can boost the Eastern Pacific.

Q: What should Florida residents do now?
A: Even if no big storm forms, expect heavy rain and prep for flooding, especially in drought-hit western Florida.

Q: What does “rapid intensification” mean?
A: It means a storm gets much stronger in a very short time, often over very warm water — leaving little time to get ready.

This article first appeared on Yale Climate Connections and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.