What Fall 2026 Weather Might Look Like (Explained Simply!)

Right now it’s hot outside, but it won’t be long before people start thinking about Pumpkin Spice Lattes, cozy plaid shirts, and everything autumn. And now we’re getting a sneak peek at what the weather will be like as we say goodbye to summer.

The Big Picture for Fall 2026

The Old Farmer’s Almanac (a really old book that predicts weather) has shared its fall 2026 weather predictions. Basically, autumn will be a bit of a mixed bag when it comes to temperatures and rain.

Here’s the general idea:

• Warmer than usual for:
  • The interior of the U.S.
  • The Northern Plains
  • The Heartland
  • The deep South
• Cooler than average for:
  • The eastern U.S.
  • The Pacific Coast

When it comes to rain:

• Most of the U.S. will be drier than average
• But not everywhere will be dry! These places will get more rain than usual:
  • The West Coast
  • Central and northern Rockies
  • Parts of Texas
  • Small wet spots in southern Florida and the Northeast

Important Point: Just because it says “dry” for most of the country doesn’t mean every single town will be dry. Some smaller areas will still see rain!

What Will the Fall Weather Be Like Where I Live?

Here’s a simple snapshot of what to expect in different regions, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac:

• Northeast – Cool and wetter than normal
• Atlantic Corridor – Cool and dry in September and October
• Appalachians – Cooler and drier than normal
• Southeast – Cooler in September and October; up to 4 inches less rain than average
• Florida – Cooler and drier, except South Florida (more rain there)
• Lower Lakes – Cool September, warms up in October; average rainfall
• Ohio Valley – Cooler September, back to normal in October; slightly drier
• Deep South – Cooler and drier, with October warmup
• Upper Midwest – Cooler September, warmer October; above-average rainfall
• Heartland – Slightly warmer and drier
• Texas–Oklahoma – Slightly cooler with above-average rainfall
• High Plains – Warmer and drier than average
• Intermountain – Cooler with slightly above-average precipitation (rain/snow)
• Desert Southwest – Warmer with an October cooldown; rainfall below average
• Pacific Northwest – Cooler and wetter than average
• Pacific Southwest – Average temps in September, cooler in October; slight increase in rainfall
• Alaska – Cooler than average in parts, below-average precipitation; northern areas could see early snow
• Hawaii – Cooler than average, more rain than typical; tropical storm possible mid-September

How Does the Almanac Make These Forecasts?

You might wonder: how do they know all this?

The Almanac uses three simple tools:

1. Solar science – studying the Sun and its patterns
2. Climatology – looking at long-term weather trends
3. Meteorology – the science of weather

They compare what they find to the 30-year statistical average (basically, what’s “normal” for each area over 30 years).

Important Point: The Almanac says its own studies show it predicts the weather correctly about 80% of the time!

Summary

Fall 2026 is expected to be a mix of warm and cool, wet and dry depending on where you live. Most of the U.S. will be drier, but some spots get more rain. The Old Farmer’s Almanac uses sun science, climate history, and weather science to make these guesses—and they say they’re right about 80% of the time.

FAQ

1. What is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?
It’s a long-running publication that predicts weather and shares farming tips using science and historical data.

2. Will it be cold everywhere in fall 2026?
No! Some places like the High Plains and Heartland will actually be warmer than usual, while the East and Pacific Coast stay cooler.

3. Is the Almanac’s forecast always correct?
Not always, but they claim to be accurate about 80% of the time based on their own studies.

4. Could Alaska see snow early?
Yes, northern parts of Alaska might see early snow in fall 2026.

5. Will Hawaii be dry this fall?
No, Hawaii is expected to be cooler and rainier than normal, with a possible tropical storm in mid-September.