How a Record El Niño Could Shape Ski Season in North America

What Is Happening This Winter?

Imagine the ocean near the equator gets a fever. That "fever" is called El Niño — a natural weather pattern where the tropical Pacific Ocean gets warmer than usual. This winter, we might see one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA — the U.S. science agency that watches the weather and oceans), this El Niño could be huge. When the Pacific gets this warm, it pushes around a giant river of air called the jet stream that flows over North America.

What is the jet stream?
Think of it like a moving highway in the sky that carries storms. Where it goes, the weather follows.

When the jet stream shifts during El Niño:

• The southern U.S. often gets wetter
• The northern U.S. often gets warmer than normal

Why This Matters for Skiing

A potentially record-setting El Niño is expected to shape weather patterns across North America this winter. Some ski states may get tons of snow, while others may have a harder time.

• Seasonal outlooks cannot predict snowfall at individual resorts.
• But decades of research show clear trends during strong El Niño winters.

Important Point
These are trends and odds — not guarantees! No forecast can say exactly how much snow your favorite resort will get.

Here are the states that stand to gain the most, along with those that could see the biggest drawbacks if the classic El Niño pattern develops.

States Most Likely To Benefit

California

California is often the biggest winner during a strong El Niño. The southern jet stream frequently directs more Pacific storms into the Sierra Nevada mountains. This increases the odds for:

• Above average snowfall
• An impressive snowpack (the layer of snow that builds up over the season)

While no winter is guaranteed, history consistently places California among the strongest beneficiaries.

Skiing in California.

New Mexico

New Mexico typically enjoys much better odds during strong El Niño winters. Storm systems are more likely to track across the Southwest, bringing increased snowfall to mountains throughout the state. Resorts like Taos Ski Valley often benefit.

Arizona

Arizona frequently sees improved snowfall during El Niño winters. Extra Pacific moisture can produce a more active storm cycle across the high country, giving places like Arizona Snowbowl a better chance at building a solid base.

Southern Colorado

Colorado does not respond uniformly (the same way everywhere) to El Niño. Southern Colorado usually benefits much more than the northern half because storms follow a southern track. Resorts like Wolf Creek have historically done well.

Crested Butte in Colorado.

Southern Utah

Southern Utah occasionally gets a boost from the same storm systems that help Arizona and New Mexico. The effect is generally weaker, but snowfall odds still improve compared to many northern mountain regions.

States Most Likely To Face Challenges

Washington

Washington often has one of the strongest negative responses during El Niño winters. The Pacific Northwest typically turns warmer than average, and fewer storms reach the Cascades mountains. Lower elevation resorts are especially vulnerable because more precipitation falls as rain instead of snow.

Oregon

Oregon shares many of Washington’s challenges. Mount Hood resorts can still get big storms, but the overall signal favors:

• Fewer snow-producing systems
• More warm periods that reduce snow quality

Idaho

Much of Idaho lies north of the preferred El Niño storm track. The result is often:

• Below average snowfall
• Warmer temperatures (especially in the north)

Conditions can still vary dramatically, but history leans against Idaho during strong El Niño events.

Powder skiing in Idaho.

Montana

Montana also tends to see warmer than average winters during major El Niño events. Resorts can still enjoy individual powder days, but the long-term signal suggests reduced snowpack potential compared to normal or La Niña winters (La Niña is the opposite cool-ocean pattern).

Northern Colorado

Unlike southern Colorado, northern Colorado often sits outside the most favorable storm track. Resorts around Steamboat, Winter Park, and Rocky Mountain National Park can still have great seasons, but the historical relationship is much weaker.

Northern Utah

Northern Utah is a transition zone between good and bad El Niño influences. The Wasatch mountains can still produce legendary snowfall thanks to lake effect enhancement (moisture from a lake making extra snow) and local terrain, but strong El Niño does not consistently favor it like California or the Southwest.

Line for a rope drop at a ski resort in Utah.

Remember That Seasonal Outlooks Are About Odds

Seasonal climate outlooks are probability forecasts, not snowfall predictions. A strong El Niño changes the likelihood of certain weather patterns, but it cannot determine exactly when storms arrive or how much snow any resort gets.

• Some of the snowiest weeks on record happened in winters that did NOT fit the expected pattern.
• A state favored by El Niño can still have dry spells.
• Local weather, atmospheric rivers (long streams of moist air), and mountain shape all matter.

Bottom Line from History
California and much of the Southwest enter this winter with the best chance of above-average snow, while the Pacific Northwest and parts of the northern Rockies face the greatest risk of a disappointing season.

Summary

• A record-strong El Niño is likely this winter and shifts the jet stream.
• Southern states (CA, NM, AZ, S. CO, S. UT) usually get more snow.
• Northern states (WA, OR, ID, MT, N. CO, N. UT) often face warmer, drier conditions.
• These are odds, not promises — local storms still rule the day.

FAQ

1. What is El Niño in simple terms?
It’s when the tropical Pacific Ocean gets warmer than normal, which changes wind and storm patterns around the world, including over North America.

2. Can I trust this to tell me if my resort will have snow?
No. These are seasonal odds for big regions, not exact forecasts for one ski area.

3. Why does California win but Washington loses?
El Niño pushes the storm highway (jet stream) south, so southern mountains get more storms while the Pacific Northwest gets warmer and fewer storms.

4. Could a “loser” state still have a great ski year?
Yes! Individual storms and local terrain can still deliver epic snow even in a tough El Niño year.

5. What is a snowpack?
It’s the total layer of snow that piles up over the winter — important for skiing and water supply.