11
Manzardo, Stowers, Soler: Hold or Hit the Panic Button?
Patience or Panic: Week 18 — Should You Trust These Struggling Sluggers?
Welcome to Week 18 of our Patience or Panic series! Today, we’re looking at three big-name hitters who are having very different—but equally frustrating—2026 seasons. Whether you’re a fantasy manager deciding on a trade or a fan wondering if your team’s star is washed up, this guide breaks it all down in plain English.
Meet the Three Kyles (and One Jorge)
We’re analyzing three players who share a common theme: they were great recently, but now they’re struggling.
| Player | Team | Position | 2025 Performance | 2026 Performance (So Far) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Manzardo | Cleveland Guardians | 1B | .234 AVG, 27 HR, .768 OPS | .209 AVG, 11 HR, .656 OPS |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | OF | .288 AVG, 25 HR, .912 OPS | .234 AVG, 12 HR, .756 OPS |
| Jorge Soler | Los Angeles Angels | DH | .208 AVG, .667 OPS (2 yrs) | .202 AVG, 12 HR, .662 OPS |
Kyle Manzardo: The Power Hitter Who Forgot How to Hit for Power
The Backstory
Cleveland got Manzardo from Tampa Bay in 2023 for pitcher Aaron Civale. At the time, it looked like a steal. Manzardo crushed Triple-A pitching in 2024 (.945 OPS, 20 HR) and had a solid rookie year in 2025.
What’s Going Wrong in 2026?
The numbers are ugly:
- Batting average: .209 (down from .234)
- Home run rate: 3.3% (down from 5.1%)
- Strikeout rate: 31.7% (up from 25.4% — now in the 7th percentile, meaning 93% of hitters strike out less!)
- Last 22 games: .134/.205/.254 — that’s a .459 OPS. Second-worst in baseball for July.
Important Point: Manzardo was never a high-average hitter. His game is power. If he’s not hitting homers, he’s not providing much value.
Why Can’t He Hit Anymore?
It’s not just one pitch type — he’s struggling against everything:
- Fastballs: 52 strikeouts, but still hitting .261
- Breaking balls (sliders/curveballs): Hitting .159
- Offspeed (changeups/splitters): Hitting .132
The slider is his kryptonite:
- .122 average vs sliders (7th-worst in MLB)
- 48.8% whiff rate (6th-worst)
- 41.7% strikeout rate (13th-worst)
Physical Changes Might Be to Blame
Two small but meaningful changes:
- Bat speed dropped from 70.6 mph → 69.8 mph (now 17th percentile)
- Stance changed: Sitting deeper, more open → reaching the ball 11.7 inches in front of plate (was 10.9 inches last year)
Translation: He’s slower and early on everything.
The Verdict on Manzardo
It’s ugly. But if you believe in him, BUY LOW.
- He’s only 26
- Strong prospect pedigree
- Cleveland is one of baseball’s best development organizations
- His stock will never be lower than right now
Kyle Stowers: The All-Star Who Lost His Magic (But Maybe Not His Skills)
The Backstory
Stowers was electric in 2025: .288/.368/.544, 25 HR, 149 wRC+, All-Star. His .912 OPS would’ve ranked 4th in the NL with enough at-bats.
2026: Good, Not Great
- .234/.315/.441, 12 HR, 100 wRC+ (exactly league average)
- Missed time early with a right hamstring strain
Important Point: Unlike Manzardo, Stowers is still a good hitter. He’s not "bad" — he’s just not the destroyer he was last year.
The Good News: Underlying Skills Are Elite
Stowers is crushing the ball when he connects:
- 86th percentile Average Exit Velocity
- 97th percentile Hard-Hit% (he hits it HARD)
- 86th percentile Bat Speed
- 69th percentile Barrel%
This screams "unlucky" — like Pete Crow-Armstrong earlier this year. The talent is there.
The Bad News: Expected Stats Don’t Trust Him
| Metric | 2025 Percentile | 2026 Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base) | 94th | 45th |
| xSLG (Expected Slugging) | 95th | 56th |
| xBA (Expected Batting Average) | 75th | 22nd |
Translation: Based on how hard and at what angle he hits the ball, he should be performing worse than he is. The computer models don’t believe the 2025 version was real.
The Strikeout Problem Is Back
- 32.6% K-rate — 4th-highest in MLB (only Torkelson, Soler, Schwarber are worse)
- He fixed this last year (down from 35%+ in 2023-24), but now it’s back
- He strikes out 30%+ against 6 of 8 pitch types
- Whiffs 30%+ against 7 of 8 pitch types
Only pitch he handles: Cutters (.223 AVG, but sees them only 7.5% of the time)
The Verdict on Stowers
Get on board now — or don’t bother.
Two paths ahead:
- Takes off → You look smart for buying low
- Stays exactly here → A solid, average regular (100 wRC+)
No middle ground. Decide your risk tolerance.
Jorge Soler: The Former World Series Hero Running on Fumes
The Glory Days
Remember Game 6, 2021 World Series? Soler hit a 446-foot bomb off Luis García that practically won Atlanta the title. World Series MVP. Immortal moment.
Since Then: A Long Fall
- Bounced: Miami → SF → Atlanta (raked) → LA Angels
- Last 2 years with Angels: 163 games, .208 AVG, .667 OPS
- 2026: .202/.288/.374, 12 HR, .662 OPS, 82 wRC+
How Bad Is It?
- 132nd of 155 qualified hitters in OPS
- 134th of 155 in wRC+
- -0.7 fWAR (145th) — legitimate case for "least valuable player in baseball"
- Can’t field, can’t run, can’t hit
Important Point: Soler is 34 years old. This isn’t a slump — this is likely decline.
The Only Things Keeping Him Alive
- 73rd percentile Barrel% (still hits it on the sweet spot sometimes)
- 62nd percentile HardHit%
- 84th percentile Bat Speed (his bat is still fast!)
- Best Launch Angle Sweet-Spot% since 2023
Translation: The tools are there. The results aren’t. And at 34, tools fade fast.
The Verdict on Soler
Caveat emptor — "Let the buyer beware."
If a contending team trades for him hoping for 2021 magic… they’re buying a lottery ticket with a scratched-off barcode.
Summary: Patience or Panic?
| Player | Verdict | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Manzardo | PATIENCE (with eyes open) | Buy low if you have roster depth. He’s 26, talented, in a great org. But it is ugly right now. |
| Kyle Stowers | PATIENCE (aggressive buy) | Still elite underlying skills. Strikeouts are the only real red flag. Buy now or miss the boat. |
| Jorge Soler | PANIC (avoid) | 34, declining, no defensive value. The 2021 hero is gone. Don’t chase the name. |
FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
1. What does "wRC+" mean?
Weighted Runs Created Plus. It measures offensive value where 100 = league average. Manzardo’s 88 means he’s 12% worse than average. Stowers’ 100 means exactly average. Soler’s 82 means 18% worse.
2. What’s "xBA" and why does it matter?
Expected Batting Average. Based on exit velocity and launch angle, what should his average be? If actual BA is much higher than xBA, he’s getting lucky. If lower, unlucky. Stowers’ xBA is in the 22nd percentile — the computer thinks he should be hitting way worse.
3. Why does strikeout rate matter so much for these guys?
Manzardo and Stowers are power-first hitters. They trade strikeouts for home runs. But if K% goes above 30% and power disappears (like Manzardo), the math stops working. You’re just making outs.
4. Can mechanical fixes really turn Manzardo around?
Yes! Small stance/timing adjustments are very common for young hitters. Cleveland’s coaching staff is elite at this. But it’s not guaranteed — sometimes the body just doesn’t move the same way anymore.
5. Should I drop any of these players in my fantasy league?
- Soler: Yes, in almost all formats.
- Manzardo: Only in shallow leagues. In deep/keeper leagues, hold.
- Stowers: Do not drop. He’s still producing (100 wRC+) and the upside is massive.
Data current through 95 games (Manzardo), 80 games (Stowers), and season-to-date (Soler) of the 2026 season. All percentile rankings based on qualified MLB hitters.
