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Marlins vs. Mets LIVE: 7:10 PM First Pitch Chat
Mets vs. Marlins: Friday Night Showdown at Citi Field — Everything You Need to Know
Game Time: Friday, July 31, 2026 • 7:10 PM
Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Watch On: WPIX
Starting Pitchers:
- Marlins: RHP Janson Junk (4–6, 4.89 ERA)
- Mets: RHP Kodai Senga (0–7, 8.85 ERA)
Why This Game Matters (The Big Picture)
Imagine two teams standing at a crossroads. One is sinking fast. The other is suddenly playing its best baseball of the year. This weekend could decide whether they become buyers (adding players for a playoff push) or sellers (trading away veterans for future assets) before the August 3 trade deadline.
| Team | Recent Vibe | Playoff Odds (FanGraphs) | Deadline Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | 12-game losing streak | 15.1% (down from 51.5% a month ago) | Were buyers → Now uncertain |
| Mets | Won 4 of last 5 | Not listed (long labeled sellers) | Sellers, but hot streak could change minds |
Key Insight: The Mets already made their first move — trading reliever A.J. Minter to the Twins. More trades could happen during this series. If the Mets keep winning, they might force the Marlins into "sell mode" by Monday.
Meet the Starting Pitchers
Marlins: Janson Junk (RHP)
- Season Stats: 14 starts, 73⅔ innings, 4.89 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 1.357 WHIP, 83 ERA+
- Recent Form: Last 4 starts → 4.34 ERA over 18⅔ innings (one rough outing: 6 runs in 4 innings)
- Think of him like: A steady but not flashy starter who keeps his team in games most nights.
Mets: Kodai Senga (RHP) — Last-Minute Change!
- Originally Scheduled: Freddy Peralta (thought to be his final start before possible trade)
- Scratched At: ~2:00 PM EST Friday — Peralta didn’t pitch.
- Senga’s Season: 12 games, 40⅔ innings, 8.85 ERA, 6.89 FIP, 1.844 WHIP, 47 ERA+ (yikes)
- Last Outing: July 18 vs. Red Sox — 2 runs in 1⅓ innings
- Contract: Signed through 2027, team option for 2028
- Trade Value: Very low right now — Mets likely hope he turns it around rather than trade him.
Callout: What’s ERA+?
100 = League Average. Senga’s 47 means he’s been 53% worse than average. Junk’s 83 means 17% worse. Lower = worse for pitchers.
Mets Lineup (Home Team)
| Order | Player | Position | Fun Fact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Ewing | LF | Leadoff hitter — tries to get on base |
| 2 | Francisco Lindor | SS | Superstar shortstop, team captain vibes |
| 3 | Bo Bichette | 3B | Hot lately — .326 AVG last 11 games (trade audition?) |
| 4 | Carson Benge | RF | Young power bat |
| 5 | Luis Robert Jr. | CF | Elite defender, struggling at plate since return from IL (.138 AVG) |
| 6 | Jared Young | 1B | Solid lefty bat |
| 7 | Brett Baty | 2B | Former top prospect, getting regular run |
| 8 | Jorge Polanco | DH | Veteran switch-hitter |
| 9 | Francisco Alvarez | C | On fire! .526 OBP last 5 games (7 walks!) |
Pitcher: Kodai Senga
Marlins Lineup (Visitors)
| Order | Player | Position |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liam Hicks | DH |
| 2 | Xavier Edwards | 2B |
| 3 | Otto Lopez | SS |
| 4 | Kyle Stowers | 1B |
| 5 | Griffin Conine | RF |
| 6 | Heriberto Hernández | LF |
| 7 | Jakob Marsee | CF |
| 8 | Joe Mack | C |
| 9 | Javier Sanoja | 3B |
Pitcher: Janson Junk
Who Has the Edge? (Hitter vs. Pitcher History)
Marlins Hitters vs. Kodai Senga (Career)
| Batter | Stats | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers | 1–4, HR, BB, 3 K | Only HR allowed to this group |
| Xavier Edwards | 4–13, 2B, 4 K | Most experience vs. Senga |
| Graham Pauley | 2–4, 2B, K | Small sample, good contact |
| Jakob Marsee | 1–2, 2B, BB | Good eye |
| Others | Mostly 1–2, 1–4 with Ks | Limited success overall |
Takeaway: Marlins haven’t crushed Senga, but Stowers has gone deep. Senga’s command issues (high WHIP) could lead to free passes.
Mets Hitters vs. Janson Junk (Career — Tiny Sample!)
| Batter | Stats |
|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | 3–4 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | 0–2 |
| Jared Young | 0–1, K |
Takeaway: Bichette owns Junk (small sample, but fun). Others haven’t faced him much.
Game Notes & Roster Moves
- IL Move: LHP Cionel Pérez → 15-day IL (left forearm strain, retro to July 30)
- Call-Ups from Triple-A Syracuse:
- RHP Xzavion Curry
- RHP Jonathan Pintaro
- Both take spots of Pérez + traded Minter
- Trade Rumors (Per The Athletic):
- Luke Weaver → Interest from Brewers, Pirates
- Freddy Peralta → Cubs, Rays, Braves, Phillies all watching
Three Things to Watch Tonight
1. Walk Francisco… Alvarez?
- Last 5 games: 3-for-12, 7 walks → .526 OBP
- Season: Only 27 walks total… until July 3
- Since July 3: .302/.439/.491, 3 HR, 12 walks
- Why it matters: Teams are pitching around him. Can he keep punishing mistakes?
2. Bo Bichette’s Audition Weekend
- Last 11 games: 15-for-46 (.326), 2 2B, .360 OBP
- Since June 12 (41 games): .313/.349/.438, 8 2B, 4 HR
- Contract: Hard to trade (owed money), but not impossible
- Storyline: A big weekend → contender might call
3. Luis Robert Jr. — The Thin CF Market
- Since IL return: 4-for-29 (.138), 2 HR, 3 BB
- Thursday: Big 2-RBI night
- He says: “I’d rather stay here.”
- Reality: Center field help is rare at deadline. A hot weekend = phone rings.
Summary
| What | Details |
|---|---|
| Game | Mets vs. Marlins, Friday 7:10 PM, Citi Field |
| Pitchers | Junk (decent) vs. Senga (struggling badly) |
| Context | Marlins collapsing (15% playoffs); Mets surging (4 of 5) |
| Deadline Vibes | Mets already traded Minter; more moves possible |
| Key Storylines | Alvarez’s patience, Bichette’s showcase, Robert’s trade bait |
| Lineup Edge | Mets have star power (Lindor, Bichette, Alvarez); Marlins young & scrappy |
Bottom Line: On paper, Junk > Senga. But baseball is weird. The Mets’ lineup is much better. If Senga limits damage early, the bats can win it. If not… it could get ugly.
FAQ — Your Questions Answered
1. Why did the Mets scratch Freddy Peralta so late?
He was likely being shopped in trades. Teams wanted to see him pitch one more time (“audition”). When no deal happened by 2 PM, they pulled him to avoid injury risk or because a trade is close.
2. What does “seller” mean at the trade deadline?
A seller trades current players (usually veterans on expiring contracts) to contending teams in exchange for prospects (young minor leaguers). The Mets are “selling” pieces like Minter, maybe Peralta/Weaver.
3. Why is Kodai Senga still starting if he’s been this bad?
- He’s under contract through 2027 (+ option).
- No team wants him right now (trade value = near zero).
- Mets’ best hope: he fixes it. They have no better option tonight.
4. What’s the deal with Francisco Alvarez drawing so many walks?
Teams are scared of his power. They’d rather walk him than give him a pitch to hit. It’s a compliment — and great for the Mets’ offense (free baserunners!).
5. Can the Mets actually make the playoffs?
Right now? Unlikely. They’re sellers for a reason. But baseball has wild second halves. If they keep winning and the division stumbles… stranger things have happened. Tonight’s a good test.
Let’s Go Mets!
First pitch: 7:10 PM on WPIX. Grab a snack, settle in, and enjoy the chaos of deadline weekend.
