MLB Trade Deadline 2026: The Simple Guide to Who Might Move Today

August 3, 2026 — It’s the biggest day on the baseball calendar (besides the World Series). Teams have until 6 p.m. ET to make their final trades before the playoffs.

What Is the Trade Deadline? (ELI5 Version)

Imagine you’re playing a card game with friends. The trade deadline is the last minute you’re allowed to swap cards before the final tournament begins.

• Contenders (teams trying to win now) trade their future prospects (young players not ready yet) for veteran stars who can help immediately.
• Rebuilding teams (teams focused on the future) trade their expiring contracts (players leaving soon) for young talent they can control for years.

This year’s twist: The biggest fish, Tarik Skubal (a Cy Young-caliber pitcher), was already traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’re going for a three-peat (three championships in a row).

Top 10 Players Most Likely to Be Traded Today

IMPORTANT NOTE: Nine of these ten players become free agents after this season — meaning they can sign with any team this winter. So teams won’t have to give up their best prospects to get them.

1. Luis Arraez — 2B, San Francisco Giants

Best fits: Red Sox, Rays, Twins, Padres

Why he’s special:

• Leads the National League with a .324 batting average (gets a hit ~1/3 of the time!)
• Plays great defense at second base now (used to play first)
• Doesn’t hit many home runs, but gets on base constantly — perfect for the top of a lineup

Fun fact: He’s played for the Twins and Padres before — and both need a second baseman right now!

2. Clay Holmes — Starting Pitcher, New York Mets

Best fits: Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Astros, Twins, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Padres

The story:

• Used to be a reliever (pitches 1 inning) for the Yankees
• Mets turned him into a starter (pitches 5+ innings) — and it worked! 3.26 ERA in 40 starts
• Missed 2 months with a broken leg, but is rehabbing now
• Secret weapon: Gets batters to hit the ball on the ground (groundballs = easy outs) more than almost anyone

Contract quirk: Has a $12M player option for 2027 — he’ll probably decline it to become a free agent.

3. Michael Griffin — Starting Pitcher, Washington Nationals

Best fits: Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Astros, Twins, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Padres

The surprise story:

• Signed for just $5.5M after 3 years in Japan
• 12-3 with a 3.06 ERA — one of the best stories in baseball!
• Only 31 but technically a "rookie" — becomes a free agent this winter
• Throws only 91 mph (slow for MLB), but batters hit .197 against it
• Uses a cutter (like a fastball that moves sideways) as his main pitch vs. righties
• Had 8 straight starts allowing 1 run or fewer

Regret alert: Nationals wish they’d signed him longer!

4. Robert Morejón — Relief Pitcher, San Diego Padres

Best fits: Yankees, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, Twins

Why everyone wants him:

• Left-handed + throws 99 mph (rare combo!)
• Would be a lockdown late-inning guy for a playoff team
• Padres rejected the Yankees’ offer of top prospect Will Warren

But: Padres just went 8-2 and are back in the playoff race — they might keep him!

5. Casey Mize — Starting Pitcher, Detroit Tigers

Best fits: Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Astros, Twins, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Padres

The context:

• Tigers already traded Skubal (their ace) — signal they’re selling
• Pushed back his start to avoid injury risk before deadline
• 2.70 ERA in 16 starts — best season of his career
• Elite control: Only 19 walks in 16 starts
• Keeps the ball in the park: Only 5 HRs allowed
• Batters have a tiny .593 OPS against him (10th best in MLB!)

Injury history: Two groin strains — teams will check his medicals carefully.

6. Luke Weaver — Relief Pitcher, New York Mets

Best fits: Yankees, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, Twins

Unique situation:

• Signed through 2027 ($12.5M next year) — but still likely traded
• 1.84 ERA this year — been great for 3 straight seasons
• Fixed his home run problem (only 3 HRs in 44 innings)
• Can pitch multiple innings — super valuable in playoffs
• Postseason resume: Terrible in 2025 (5 runs, 1 out), but lights-out in 2024 (1.76 ERA in 12 games)

Perfect for: A team needing a setup man (pitches the 7th/8th inning) — cough Yankees cough.

7. Robbie Ray — Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants

Best fits: Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Astros, Twins, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Padres

The veteran revival:

• 2021 AL Cy Young winner (best pitcher award)
• Best season since then: 10-6, 3.08 ERA
• 1.09 ERA over last 8 starts (but faced weak lineups)
• Only 1 HR allowed in last 49⅓ innings

Concerns:

• Still walks too many batters
• Strikeouts are down
• Righties crush him: 14 of 15 HRs allowed to right-handed batters
• Huge home/road split: 2.22 ERA at home vs. 4.06 ERA on road

8. Daulton Varsho — Center Fielder, Toronto Blue Jays

Best fits: Diamondbacks, Phillies, Astros, Marlins

What he brings:

• Elite defense in center field (catches everything)
• Power surge in 2025 — but struggling at plate in 2026
• Left-handed bat — valuable for balance

Team fits:

• Diamondbacks: Used 4 different center fielders in July
• Phillies: Major upgrade over Justin Crawford defensively
• Astros: Publicly seeking a lefty outfielder
• Marlins: Their center fielders hit .204 with 8 HRs (yikes)

9. Gleyber Torres — 2B/DH, Detroit Tigers

Best fits: Red Sox, Rays, Twins, Padres, Diamondbacks, Guardians

Why he’s sneaky good:

• .389 OBP (on-base percentage) — higher than Arraez!
• Postseason veteran: Tough out in October for Yankees & Tigers
• Can play second base or DH (designated hitter — hits only, no field)

Tigers dilemma: They just swept the A’s (13-1, 11-0 wins!) — might try to keep both Mize AND Torres and sneak into playoffs.

10. Jordan May — Starting Pitcher, St. Louis Cardinals

Best fits: Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Astros, Twins, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Padres

The "analytics darling":

• Record: 5-7, 4.38 ERA (looks mediocre)
• But FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): 3.14 — means he’s been much better than his ERA
• Only 7 HRs allowed in 109 innings (great!)
• 106 Ks, 35 walks — solid ratio
• Throws 97 mph despite multiple arm surgeries
• Changed pitch mix: More four-seamer & cutter, less sinker
• Weakness: Low whiff rate (26th percentile) — batters make contact

Quick Reference Card

FA = Free Agent | Holmes has a $12M player option he’ll likely decline

Key Takeaways (The "Why It Matters" Stuff)

CALLOUT: THREE BIG THEMES THIS DEADLINE

1. Rental Market: 9 of 10 are "two-month rentals" — teams won’t pay top prospect prices
2. Seller’s Market: Many contenders need pitching (starting AND relief) — drives up prices
3. Division Rivals Trading? Mets might send Holmes to Braves/Phillies — rare but spicy!

FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered

Q: What does "team control" mean?

A: It’s how many years a team owns a player’s rights before they hit free agency. Players with more team control (like Skubal — 2+ years left) cost way more in trade talks. These 10 guys? Almost zero control left = cheaper.

Q: Why do rebuilding teams trade good players?

A: Because they’re leaving anyway in free agency. If you’re the Tigers and Mize walks for nothing in November, getting something (prospects) now is smarter than getting nothing later.

Q: What’s a "prospect"?

A: A young player in the minor leagues who might become a star. Teams guard their top-50 prospects like dragons guard gold. Skubal cost a top-50 guy. These 10? Probably not.

Q: Can a traded player play in the playoffs for their new team?

A: YES! As long as the trade happens before the deadline (6 p.m. ET today), they’re playoff-eligible. That’s why contenders panic-buy today.

Q: What’s FIP and why does Jordan May’s matter?

A: FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching. It measures what a pitcher controls (Ks, walks, HRs) and ignores defense/luck. May’s 3.14 FIP vs 4.38 ERA means he’s pitched better than his results show — he’s been unlucky, not bad.

Summary: What to Watch Today

1. Skubal to Dodgers already happened — Dodgers are all-in
2. Mets are SELLING — Holmes, Weaver, Raley, Brazoban all available
3. Tigers are SELLING — Mize & Torres on the block after Skubal trade
4. Padres are TRICKY — 8-2 surge makes them hesitate on Morejón
5. Starting pitching is KING — Holmes, Griffin, Mize, Ray, May all starters
6. Relievers matter more in October — Weaver, Morejón = playoff weapons
7. Position players rare — Only Arraez, Varsho, Torres as everyday guys
8. Division trades possible — Mets → Braves/Phillies would be spicy
9. Deadline: 6:00 PM ET TODAY — then rosters freeze for playoffs
10. Check the tracker! → ESPN Live Trade Deadline Tracker

Final thought: Baseball’s trade deadline is like Christmas morning for GMs — some get the toy they wanted (a playoff push), others get coal (another lost season). By tonight, the playoff picture will be a lot clearer.

Happy deadline day!