Why Millions of Dollars Are Flooding a California House Race: A Simple Guide

What’s Happening in California’s East Bay?

Imagine a game of musical chairs, but instead of chairs, it’s a seat in the U.S. Congress. When the music stops—meaning a representative resigns—everyone scrambles to fill the spot. That’s exactly what’s happening right now in California’s 15th Congressional District, a stretch of the East Bay that includes cities like Dublin, Livermore, and parts of Contra Costa County.

The short version: A special election is underway to replace former Representative Eric Swalwell. The race has turned into a high-stakes showdown where outside groups have spent over $5 million in just a few weeks to influence the outcome.

Who Are the Candidates?

Aisha Wahab (The Progressive Frontrunner)

• Current job: California State Senator
• Backing: Endorsed by the California Democratic Party, Attorney General Rob Bonta, Alameda County Sheriff Yesenia Sanchez, and the progressive group Our Revolution
• Primary results: Beat her closest rival by over 20 points in both the June primary and the special election to finish Swalwell’s term
• Personal story: Her father was murdered when she was a child; she grew up in the foster care system
• Legislative focus: Victims’ rights—authored laws making human trafficking a serious felony and creating a Bill of Rights for sexual assault survivors

Melissa Hernandez (The Establishment Pick)

• Current job: President of the BART Board of Directors (Bay Area’s train system)
• Previous role: Mayor of Dublin
• Backing: Supported by massive spending from Super PACs tied to AIPAC
• Campaign focus: Lowering housing and healthcare costs, strong public safety

What Are Super PACs and AIPAC? (ELI5 Edition)

New to these terms? Don’t worry—here’s the plain-English breakdown:

Super PAC = "Super Political Action Committee"

Think of it like a giant piggy bank that can collect unlimited money from individuals, corporations, unions, or other groups to spend on elections.
The catch: They cannot give money directly to a candidate or coordinate with their campaign. They have to operate "independently"—running their own ads, mailers, and outreach.

AIPAC = American Israel Public Affairs Committee

One of the largest and most influential pro-Israel lobbying groups in the U.S.
In recent years, AIPAC created its own Super PAC called United Democracy Project (UDP) to spend big in congressional races—especially Democratic primaries.

Independent Expenditures

Fancy legal term for: "We’re spending money to help or hurt a candidate, but we’re not talking to their campaign about it."
Candidates legally cannot control these ads—even if the ads say exactly what the candidate would want.

The Money Trail: How Much and From Where?

Sources: Politico and Track AIPAC reporting, August 2026

What the Candidates Say

Aisha Wahab’s Take

"You have to ask yourself, why? AIPAC is clearly not interested in having diverse voices at the table… They want a puppet they can control."

• Calls the ad barrage "election interference"
• Says ads misrepresent her public safety record
• Reports her campaign gets daily calls/emails from disgusted constituents
• Points to her endorsements from law enforcement (including the Alameda County Sheriff) as proof of her public safety credibility

Melissa Hernandez’s Campaign Response

"Melissa does not control independent expenditures. No candidate does. That is the law, and she sees those ads when you see them." — Ajay Mohan, Campaign Manager

• Says Hernandez is "laser focused on lowering costs of housing and health care, and supporting strong public safety"
• Notes candidates legally cannot coordinate with Super PACs

AIPAC’s Response

The Guardian contacted AIPAC for comment. No response was published at press time.

Why This Matters Beyond California

1. AIPAC’s Spending Is Skyrocketing

• $67.2 million spent so far in the 2026 cycle (per New York Times)
• That’s double what they spent in previous cycles
• Mostly targeting Democratic primaries

2. Recent Track Record: Mixed Results

• Michigan Senate Primary (2026): AIPAC spent millions backing moderate Haley Stevens → Progressive Abdul El-Sayed won
• California 15th District: AIPAC-backed spending supporting Hernandez → Wahab still leads by 20+ points

3. The Bigger Question

Can a handful of well-funded groups override local voters’ preferences?
Or do voters ultimately decide based on what they know about candidates?

IMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER

• This is a SPECIAL ELECTION to finish Swalwell’s term + a regular November election for the next full term
• Runoff election coming later this month — Wahab vs. Hernandez, round two
• Swalwell resigned after multiple sexual assault allegations (not directly related to this race, but why the seat is open)
• Candidates legally CANNOT control Super PAC ads — even if the ads help them
• Wahab has won both earlier contests by 20+ points despite the spending

Summary: The Big Picture in 5 Bullet Points

1. Open seat + special election = high stakes → Outside money floods in
2. AIPAC’s Super PACs have spent $4.4M+ backing Hernandez, attacking Wahab
3. Wahab is the clear frontrunner — won primaries by 20+ points, has broad endorsements
4. Wahab calls it "election interference" — voters say they’re disgusted by attack ads
5. This is part of a national pattern — AIPAC doubling spending in Democratic primaries, with mixed results

FAQ: Your Questions Answered

What’s a "special election" and why are there two elections?

A special election fills the rest of the current term (ending January 2027). The regular November election chooses who serves the next full term (2027–2029). Same candidates, two separate votes.

Can AIPAC just buy elections?

They can try to influence them with ads and mailers. But voters still cast the ballots. In Michigan and so far in California, heavy spending hasn’t guaranteed victory.

Why is AIPAC involved in a California race that isn’t about Israel?

AIPAC’s Super PAC backs candidates they view as pro-Israel and opposes those they see as critical of Israel. Wahab has been critical of Israeli policy; Hernandez has not. AIPAC also targets progressives more broadly.

If candidates can’t control Super PAC ads, why do they benefit?

Even without coordination, Super PACs run ads that echo a candidate’s message or attack their opponent. Candidates benefit from the free airtime/mailers—but legally must say "I didn’t approve this."

Who decides the winner?

You do — if you live in California’s 15th District. The runoff is later this month; the general is in November. All the money in the world doesn’t vote. People do.

Want to learn more? Check your voter registration, research both candidates’ actual records, and talk to neighbors. The best antidote to outside money is an informed vote.