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AIPAC Super PACs Drop Millions to Crush California Progressive
Big Money, Big Influence: How Outside Groups Are Shaping a California Congressional Race
What’s Happening in California’s East Bay?
Imagine a race for a seat in Congress — the place where laws are made for the whole country. Now imagine that outside groups from far away are spending millions of dollars to pick the winner before voters even get a say.
That’s exactly what’s happening right now in a California congressional district covering the East Bay area (cities like Dublin, Livermore, and parts of Contra Costa County).
The Backstory: How We Got Here
| Key Event | What Happened |
|---|---|
| Longtime representative leaves | Eric Swalwell held this seat for over 10 years. He resigned earlier this year after multiple sexual assault allegations. |
| Special election called | California needs someone to finish Swalwell’s term and someone for the next full term starting in January. |
| Primary election (June) | Two Democrats emerged as top vote-getters: Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez. |
| Runoff coming up | They’ll face off again later this month for the short term, then again in November for the full two-year term. |
Meet the Two Main Candidates
Aisha Wahab — The Progressive Front-Runner
- Current job: California State Senator
- Big endorsement: California Democratic Party officially backs her
- Primary performance: Beat Hernandez by more than 20 percentage points
- Personal story: Her father was murdered when she was a child. She grew up in the foster care system.
- Legislative wins: Wrote laws to make human trafficking a serious felony and created a "Bill of Rights" for sexual assault survivors
- Key endorsements: Our Revolution (progressive group), Attorney General Rob Bonta, Alameda County Sheriff Yesenia Sanchez
Melissa Hernandez — The Establishment Pick
- Current job: President of the BART Board of Directors (Bay Area’s train system)
- Previous job: Mayor of Dublin
- Campaign focus: Lowering housing costs, healthcare access, public safety
- Big backing: Receiving millions in support from Super PACs tied to AIPAC
The Money Machine: Who’s Spending What?
IMPORTANT: What Is a Super PAC?
A Super PAC (Political Action Committee) is a group that can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to support or attack political candidates — as long as they don’t directly coordinate with the candidate’s official campaign. They’re like "outside teams" playing in the game without wearing the team jersey.
The Numbers (Recent Weeks Only)
| Super PAC | Amount Spent | Backed By | Supporting |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Democracy Project | $1.2 million | AIPAC | Melissa Hernandez |
| Bold America PAC | $2.1 million | United Democracy Project (AIPAC) | Melissa Hernandez |
| Other AIPAC-linked spending | $4.4+ million total | AIPAC directly | Melissa Hernandez |
| TOTAL outside spending | $5+ million | — | — |
Who Is AIPAC?
AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) is one of the largest and most powerful lobbying groups in the United States. Their main goal: support strong U.S.-Israel relations.
- They’ve doubled their political spending recently — now $67.2 million this cycle
- Most of that money goes into Democratic primaries
- They backed Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Senate primary (she lost to progressive Abdul El-Sayed)
- Now they’re spending heavily in California’s East Bay race
The Attack Ads: What’s Being Said?
Wahab says she’s facing a "barrage of attack ads" that misrepresent her record — especially on public safety.
"You have to ask yourself, why? AIPAC is clearly not interested in having diverse voices at the table… They want a puppet they can control."
— Aisha Wahab
What the Ads Get Wrong (According to Wahab)
- Claim she’s "soft on crime"
- Reality: She wrote laws protecting victims of human trafficking and sexual assault
- Reality: Endorsed by the Alameda County Sheriff (top law enforcement official)
What Voters Are Saying
- Wahab’s campaign gets daily calls and emails from constituents
- People say they’re "disgusted by the ads"
- Many know Wahab’s personal story and legislative record firsthand
The Other Side Responds
Hernandez’s campaign manager, Ajay Mohan, says:
"Melissa does not control independent expenditures. No candidate does. That is the law, and she sees those ads when you see them."
He adds that Hernandez is "laser focused on lowering the costs of housing and health care, and supporting strong public safety — just as she did as Mayor."
The Guardian has reached out to AIPAC for comment.
Why This Race Matters Beyond California
1. A Test for the Democratic Party’s Soul
- Progressive vs. moderate/establishment wing
- Will big outside money override local voter preferences?
2. AIPAC’s Growing Playbook
- Spending heavily in Democratic primaries (not general elections)
- Targeting progressive candidates critical of Israeli government policies
- Michigan primary was Round 1 — California is Round 2
3. The "Super PAC Loophole" on Display
- Candidates technically don’t control these ads
- But they benefit enormously from them
- Voters can’t always tell who’s really pulling the strings
Summary: The Big Picture in 5 Points
- Special election underway for Eric Swalwell’s old East Bay congressional seat
- Aisha Wahab (progressive, state senator, foster care survivor) won the primary by 20+ points
- AIPAC-linked Super PACs have poured $5+ million into attack ads against Wahab and support for Melissa Hernandez
- Wahab calls it "election interference" — ads distort her strong public safety record
- This is part of a national pattern: AIPAC spending big in Democratic primaries to shape the party’s future
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Q: Can Super PACs legally coordinate with candidates?
A: No — by law, Super PACs must operate independently. They can’t strategize with the candidate’s official campaign. But in practice, they often run ads that perfectly align with the candidate’s messaging.
Q: Why is AIPAC spending so much in Democratic primaries?
A: AIPAC wants to elect candidates who support its vision of U.S.-Israel policy. Since most of these districts are safely Democratic (the Democrat will win in November), the primary is the real election. Spending there gets more "bang for the buck."
Q: Does AIPAC only support Jewish candidates?
A: No. AIPAC supports candidates of any background who align with its policy positions. Neither Wahab nor Hernandez is Jewish. This is about policy alignment, not identity.
Q: What happens if Wahab wins despite the spending?
A: It would signal that grassroots support and local endorsements can overcome massive outside money — a major story for the progressive movement and a potential warning sign for AIPAC’s strategy.
Q: When are the actual elections?
A:
- Runoff for the short term (finishing Swalwell’s term): Later this month
- General election for the full term (starting January 2027): November 2026
The Bottom Line
Democracy works best when voters decide — not when the loudest wallet wins.
This race is a real-time case study in how modern elections work: outside groups with millions can flood the airwaves, but they can’t cast ballots. In the coming weeks, East Bay voters will have the final say.
Stay informed. Ask who’s paying for the ads you see. And most importantly — vote.
