NL MVP Shocker: Can PCA Dethrone Ohtani?
The 2024 NL MVP Race: Shohei Ohtani vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong Explained Simply
TL;DR: Two amazing players are fighting for the National League’s Most Valuable Player award. Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) is currently ahead because he’s an elite defender and base runner plus a great hitter. Shohei Ohtani is an incredible hitter and pitcher, but he hasn’t pitched much lately due to injury. The stats favor PCA right now, but there’s still time for things to change!
What’s Happening Right Now?
Every year, baseball fans argue about who deserves the MVP (Most Valuable Player) award. This year in the National League, it’s a two-person race between:
- Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers) — The superstar who hits and pitches
- Pete Crow-Armstrong aka "PCA" (Chicago Cubs) — The young center fielder having a breakout season
Both teams are winning lots of games (Dodgers: 73-48, Cubs: 71-50), and both players had huge moments on the same night recently. With about six weeks left in the season, the debate is heating up!
Meet the Two Contenders
| Player | Team | Position | MVP History |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Dodgers | DH (Designated Hitter) / Pitcher | 4-time MVP winner (3 in AL, 1 in NL) |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Cubs | Center Fielder | First time in the MVP conversation |
Important: Ohtani is unique because he’s a two-way player — he hits like a superstar and pitches like an ace. PCA is a "traditional" position player who fields, runs, and hits.
Comparing Their Hitting (Batting)
Good news: They’re almost identical as hitters!
| Stat | Ohtani | PCA | What It Means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | .292 | .284 | How often they get a hit (both excellent) |
| On-Base % | .393 | .384 | How often they reach base (both elite) |
| Slugging % | .544 | .544 | IDENTICAL — power hitting is equal |
| OPS+ | 157 | 156 | How good they are vs. league average (100 = average) |
| Home Runs | 27 | 27 | TIED |
| RBIs | 74 | 73 | Runs driven in (basically tied) |
| Runs Scored | 77 | 86 | PCA scores more (helped by speed) |
| Doubles | 23 | 24 | Nearly tied |
| Triples | 2 | 7 | PCA has way more (speed!) |
Key Takeaway: At the plate, this is essentially a tie. Neither has a clear edge.
Comparing Their Baserunning
PCA wins this category — and it’s not even close.
| Stat | Ohtani | PCA | League Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stolen Bases | 7 for 10 (70%) | 30 for 37 (81%) | — |
| BsR (Baserunning Runs) | 0.5 | 4.9 | 0 = average |
| XBT% (Extra Bases Taken) | 46.5% | 50% | 42% |
What these numbers mean in plain English:
- BsR (Baserunning Runs): PCA has created almost 5 extra runs for his team just with smart, aggressive running. Ohtani is barely above average.
- XBT%: When a single is hit, how often does the runner get to third? When a double is hit, how often do they score? PCA does this 50% of the time vs. 42% league average.
- PCA ranks 5th in the entire NL in baserunning value.
Simple analogy: PCA is like a player who turns singles into doubles and doubles into runs. Ohtani mostly stays at first base.
Comparing Their Defense
This is a total blowout for PCA.
| Player | Defensive Role |
|---|---|
| Ohtani | Does not play defense at all (only hits; pitches occasionally) |
| PCA | Arguably the BEST defensive player in ALL of baseball |
PCA’s defensive resume:
- Leads ALL positions in Fielding Run Value
- Leads ALL positions in Outs Above Average
- Leads ALL positions in Runs Prevented
- Leads ALL positions in Defensive WAR (dWAR)
- Has played 1,029⅔ innings in center field (a premium, difficult position)
ELI5: Imagine PCA is a vacuum cleaner in center field — he catches everything near him, and even some balls that should be hits. Ohtani doesn’t play the field at all right now.
The Big Twist: Ohtani’s Pitching
Here’s where it gets complicated. Ohtani is also a pitcher. But he’s been injured.
The Timeline:
- Last pitched: July 3 (over a month ago)
- Current status: Just started a throwing program (playing catch)
- Next steps (per MLB.com):
- Stretch out throwing distance (long toss)
- Throw bullpen sessions (practice off a mound)
- Face live hitters in practice
- Maybe return to real games
What the Manager Says:
"Any inning we get from him is a bonus… whether it’s one inning, two innings, three innings, I’m not too concerned about the timeline." — Dave Roberts, Dodgers Manager
The Numbers So Far:
- Record: 8-2
- ERA: 1.79 (amazing!)
- WHIP: 0.95 (amazing!)
- Innings: Only 85⅔ (very few)
Context: To qualify for the ERA title, a pitcher needs 162 innings (1 per team game). Ohtani is ~35 innings short with only ~40 games left. He will not qualify and likely won’t pitch many more innings.
What the Advanced Stats Say (WAR)
WAR (Wins Above Replacement) tries to put a single number on "total value" — hitting + running + fielding + pitching.
| Version | PCA | Ohtani | Leader |
|---|---|---|---|
| bWAR (Baseball Reference) | 7.5 | 6.4 | PCA +1.1 |
| fWAR (FanGraphs) | 8.0 | 6.7 | PCA +1.3 |
How they calculate it differently:
- Position players: Both use similar hitting/running stats, but different defensive metrics (DRS vs. UZR)
- Pitchers: bWAR uses runs allowed; fWAR uses FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
Important: WAR isn’t perfect! It has a margin of error. It’s a tool, not the final answer. But right now, both versions agree: PCA has been more valuable overall.
The Human Factor: Voter Fatigue
Voters are humans, and history shows a pattern:
| Player | MVP Awards | Narrative |
|---|---|---|
| Ohtani | 4 (2021, 2023 AL; 2024?; plus 2021 NL?) | "He wins everything" |
| PCA | 0 | "Fresh face, first time" |
Voter fatigue is real: When a superstar wins repeatedly, voters sometimes look for a reason to pick someone new — especially in a tight race.
Fun fact: This has happened in other sports too (NBA, NFL). It’s not "fair," but it’s human nature.
What the Betting Odds Say
As of this week (via DraftKings):
| Player | Odds | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| PCA | -120 | Favorite (bet $120 to win $100) |
| Ohtani | +100 | Underdog (bet $100 to win $100) |
Translation: The betting market thinks PCA is more likely to win right now.
What Could Still Change? (The Next 6 Weeks)
Baseball is unpredictable! Here are the four big swing factors:
- Hot/Cold Streaks — Either player could go on a tear (or slump) in September
- Ohtani Returns to Pitch — If he throws 40+ dominant innings, the math flips
- Injuries — If either gets hurt, it’s devastating for their case
- Team Success — If one team makes a playoff push and the other fades, voters notice
Bottom line: We truly don’t know how this ends. That’s what makes it fun!
Summary
| Category | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Hitting | Tie | Virtually identical |
| Baserunning | PCA | Substantial |
| Defense | PCA | Massive (best in MLB) |
| Pitching | Ohtani | Elite but very limited innings |
| Total Value (WAR) | PCA | Leads in both bWAR & fWAR |
| Betting Odds | PCA | -120 favorite |
| Narrative | PCA | First-time candidate vs. 4-time winner |
Current verdict: PCA is the more complete, valuable position player. Ohtani’s pitching could close the gap — but only if he actually pitches meaningful innings soon. Right now, PCA deserves the edge.
FAQ
1. Why does Ohtani not play defense?
He’s the Designated Hitter (DH) — a role where you only hit. The Dodgers also want to protect his arm for pitching. He used to play the field early in his career, but not anymore.
2. What is WAR, and why are there two versions?
WAR = Wins Above Replacement. It estimates how many more games a team wins with this player vs. a "replacement-level" player (like a minor leaguer called up).
- bWAR = Baseball Reference version
- fWAR = FanGraphs version
They use slightly different formulas (especially for defense and pitching), but usually agree on the big picture.
3. Can a pitcher win MVP without pitching many innings?
It’s very rare. Voters usually want pitchers to have a full workload (160+ innings). Ohtani’s ~86 innings is tiny for a starter. His hitting helps, but the "two-way" argument weakens if he only does one way.
4. Has a rookie/young player ever beaten a superstar for MVP?
Yes! Recent examples:
- 2021 NL: Bryce Harper (2nd MVP) beat Juan Soto & Fernando Tatis Jr.
- 2017 AL: Jose Altuve beat Aaron Judge (rookie)
- 2001 AL: Ichiro Suzuki (rookie!) won MVP and Rookie of the Year
So PCA’s "newness" is actually a plus with some voters.
5. When will we know the winner?
Voting happens right after the regular season ends (late September/early October). Winners are announced in November on MLB Network. Until then — enjoy the debate!
Final thought: Whether you’re Team Ohtani or Team PCA, we’re watching two of the most exciting players in baseball go head-to-head. That’s a win for fans no matter what!