NL MVP Shocker: Can Crow-Armstrong Actually Catch Ohtani?
The 2024 NL MVP Race: Shohei Ohtani vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong Explained Simply
Why This Race Is So Interesting
Every baseball season, fans argue about who should win the MVP (Most Valuable Player) award. Last year, it was Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Mookie Betts. The year before, Shohei Ohtani vs. Aaron Judge.
This year? It’s a showdown between two totally different types of superstars:
- Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers) – The two-way unicorn who hits AND pitches
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (Chicago Cubs) – "PCA" – A defensive wizard who runs like the wind
Important Point: Both teams are winning! The Dodgers are 73-48 and the Cubs are 71-50. Both are near the best record in baseball. And it’s only August – six weeks left for both players to add to their résumés.
The Big Question: Will Ohtani Pitch Again?
This is the twist that makes this race unique.
Ohtani had knee surgery and hasn’t pitched since July 3. But this past weekend, he started a throwing program (playing catch, slowly building up distance).
The Road Back to the Mound (Step by Step)
- Long toss – Throwing from far away to stretch the arm
- Bullpen sessions – Throwing off a mound to catchers, no batters
- Live batting practice – Facing real hitters in practice
- Minor league rehab starts – Pitching in real games at a lower level
- Big league return – Back on the Dodgers’ mound
Callout: Manager Dave Roberts said: "Any inning, any innings we get from him are bonuses… whether it’s one inning, two innings, three innings, I’m not too concerned about the timeline."
Translation: The Dodgers don’t need him to pitch. They’re winning without it. Any pitching is a bonus.
The Three-Way Showdown: Hitting, Running, Fielding
Let’s compare them like we’re looking at baseball cards.
Hitting – Basically a Tie
| Stat | Ohtani | PCA |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | .292 | .284 |
| On-Base % | .393 | .384 |
| Slugging % | .544 | .544 |
| OPS+ (100 = average) | 157 | 156 |
| Home Runs | 27 | 27 |
| RBIs | 74 | 73 |
| Runs Scored | 77 | 86 |
| Doubles | 23 | 24 |
| Triples | 2 | 7 |
ELI5: OPS+ combines getting on base + hitting for power, adjusted for ballparks. 157 means 57% better than league average. They’re essentially identical hitters.
Baserunning – PCA Wins Big
| Stat | Ohtani | PCA |
|---|---|---|
| Stolen Bases | 7 of 10 (70%) | 30 of 37 (81%) |
| BsR (Baserunning Runs Above Average) | 0.5 | 4.9 |
| XBT% (Extra Bases Taken) | 46.5% | 50% |
ELI5:
- BsR = How many runs you create with your legs (stealing, taking extra bases, not getting thrown out). 4.9 is 5th best in the National League.
- XBT% = How often you go 1st→3rd on a single, or 1st→home on a double. League average is 42%. PCA is at 50%.
Bottom line: PCA is an elite base runner. Ohtani is… okay.
Defense – Not Even Close
| Player | Defensive Role |
|---|---|
| Ohtani | Does not play defense. Only fields when he pitches. |
| PCA | Best defender in ALL of baseball (any position). Leads MLB in: Fielding Run Value, Outs Above Average, Runs Prevented, Defensive WAR. 1,029⅔ innings in center field. |
Callout: PCA is arguably the single best defensive player in baseball this year. Ohtani provides zero defensive value as a position player.
The Verdict So Far: PCA Is the Better Position Player
Key Takeaway: If you only look at hitting + running + fielding, PCA wins comfortably. Even the biggest Ohtani fans would agree.
So why is this a debate at all?
Because Ohtani pitches. And pitching is wildly valuable per inning.
The Pitching Factor: Ohtani’s Secret Weapon
Ohtani’s 2024 Pitching Line (Before Injury)
- Record: 8-2
- ERA: 1.79 (tiny!)
- WHIP: 0.95 (barely any baserunners)
- Innings: 85⅔
ELI5:
- ERA = Earned Run Average. How many runs you give up per 9 innings. 1.79 is Cy Young territory.
- WHIP = Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched. Under 1.00 is absurdly good.
- Qualifying for ERA title = 162 innings (1 per team game). Ohtani is ~35 innings short and won’t come close.
The dilemma: 85 dominant innings = huge value. But is it enough to overcome PCA’s massive lead in running + defense?
The Stat That Tries to Combine Everything: WAR
WAR (Wins Above Replacement) = "How many more games does this player win vs. a replacement-level guy?"
There are two main versions:
- bWAR (Baseball-Reference) – Uses runs allowed for pitchers
- fWAR (FanGraphs) – Uses FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) for pitchers
Current WAR Standings
| Metric | PCA | Ohtani | Leader |
|---|---|---|---|
| bWAR | 7.5 | 6.4 | PCA +1.1 |
| fWAR | 8.0 | 6.7 | PCA +1.3 |
Important: WAR isn’t perfect! It has a margin of error. It’s a tool, not the final verdict. But it confirms: PCA has been more valuable so far as a full-time position player.
The Human Element: Voter Fatigue
Here’s where it gets spicy. Voters are humans.
| Player | MVP Awards Won |
|---|---|
| Ohtani | 4 (2021, 2023 AL; 2023, 2024? NL) |
| PCA | 0 |
Fact: History shows voters sometimes get tired of giving the same guy the trophy. If it’s close, the fresh face often wins.
What the Betting Markets Say
DraftKings Odds (as of article date):
- PCA: -120 (bet $120 to win $100 = favorite)
- Ohtani: +100 (bet $100 to win $100 = underdog)
The money thinks PCA wins if things stay like this.
What Could Change Everything? (The Next 6 Weeks)
Scenarios Where Ohtani Wins
- He returns to pitch 40+ dominant innings (finishes ~125 IP with sub-2.00 ERA)
- PCA goes into a massive slump (.180 avg, bad defense)
- Ohtani goes on a historic HR tear (50+ HR pace) while PCA cools off
Scenarios Where PCA Wins
- Ohtani pitches <20 innings rest of year (or not at all)
- PCA keeps playing Gold Glove CF + steals 40+ bases
- Both hit similarly – PCA’s running/defense edge decides it
The "Bummer" Scenario
- Either player gets injured and misses significant time.
Summary: Two Deserving MVPs, Two Different Paths
| Path to MVP | Player | What It Looks Like |
|---|---|---|
| The Complete Position Player | PCA | Elite hitter + elite runner + elite defender = most valuable everyday player |
| The Two-Way Unicorn | Ohtani | Elite hitter + elite pitcher (part-time) = unique value no one else provides |
Bottom Line: Right now, PCA is the more valuable position player by a clear margin. Ohtani’s case rests entirely on his pitching. If he pitches enough dominant innings, he wins. If not, PCA wins. We have six weeks to find out.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
What does "two-way player" mean?
A player who both hits (plays in the lineup every day) and pitches (starts games on the mound). Ohtani is the only modern player to do this at an All-Star level. Think Babe Ruth, but in 2024.
Why doesn’t Ohtani play the field?
Because pitching puts massive stress on the arm. Playing a position (like outfield) adds more throwing + injury risk. The Dodgers protect his arm by making him DH (Designated Hitter) only when he doesn’t pitch.
What is "Defensive WAR" and why does PCA lead everyone?
dWAR = Wins Above Replacement from defense only. PCA plays center field (the hardest outfield spot) and makes plays almost no one else makes. He saves runs with his glove like an elite pitcher saves runs with his arm.
Can a player win MVP without playing defense?
Yes! DHs have won MVP before (David Ortiz, Shohei Ohtani in 2021 & 2023). But they have to crush the ball to overcome zero defensive value. Ohtani’s hitting is great – but PCA’s hitting is equally great PLUS he adds elite defense/running.
Does the team’s record matter for MVP?
Yes, a lot. Voters heavily favor players on playoff teams. Both Dodgers and Cubs are winning, so both guys check this box. If one team collapses, that player’s chances drop fast.
Enjoy the race! This is what makes August baseball fun – two amazing players, two totally different shapes of greatness, one trophy.