The Calm is Over: Atlantic Hurricane Season Erupts
Atlantic Hurricane Season Heats Up: Two Systems to Watch This Week
TL;DR: We’re entering the busiest part of hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center is watching two areas in the Atlantic. One near Bermuda might briefly become a storm but will move away. Another coming off Africa has a harder time developing due to El Niño. Neither is an immediate threat to the U.S. mainland.
Where Are These Two Systems?
The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring two distinct areas in the Atlantic Ocean:
1. Central Atlantic System
- Location: A few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda
- What it is: An area of low pressure (a "low")
- Movement: Drifting northward, away from Bermuda
2. Eastern Atlantic System
- Location: Will move off the coast of Africa this week
- What it is: A tropical wave — think of this as a cluster of thunderstorms moving westward across the tropics
- Timing: Could develop later this week
IMPORTANT POINT: The next tropical storm to reach 39 mph winds will be named Tropical Storm Dolly.
What Are the Chances Each System Develops?
Central Atlantic (Near Bermuda)
| Factor | Details |
|---|---|
| Development chance | Could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm in the next few days |
| Track | Drifting north, away from Bermuda |
| Lifespan | Expected to be brief — will merge with a cold front soon |
Eastern Atlantic (Off Africa)
| Factor | Details |
|---|---|
| Development chance | Could become a tropical depression by late week |
| Main obstacles | El Niño-enhanced wind shear and dry air — both tend to tear storms apart or prevent them from forming |
| If it stays weak | Could reach the Lesser Antilles by early next week with increased showers |
| If it develops | Expected to turn northward in the Atlantic next week |
SIMPLE EXPLANATION: Wind shear is when winds at different heights blow at different speeds or directions. Imagine trying to stack blocks while someone shakes the table — the tower (storm) falls apart. Dry air sucks the moisture out of a storm, starving it of fuel.
Are Either of These a Threat?
Central Atlantic System
- Impacts: May bring enhanced rain and gusty winds to Newfoundland (Canada) Tuesday into Wednesday
- After that: Merges with a cold front and fizzles out
- Bottom line: No threat to the U.S. or Caribbean
Eastern Atlantic System
- Immediate threat to U.S. mainland? No — too far out and too uncertain
- Who should watch? Residents of the Lesser Antilles should monitor progress
- Timeline: Any potential impacts would be early next week at the earliest
- Key uncertainty: Whether it can survive the hostile wind shear and dry air
Why Is Activity Picking Up Now?
Hurricane Season Ramp-Up
- August = Season starts escalating
- Second week of September = Peak of hurricane season
- We are in that ramp-up period right now
The El Niño Factor
- El Niño is strengthening this year
- What that means: Typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear
- BUT: It doesn’t shut the season down — storms can still form
- Remember: It only takes ONE storm to make a season impactful for you
IMPORTANT POINT: Even in a "quiet" season, one landfalling hurricane makes it a bad year for those affected. Preparation matters every year.
Summary
- Two areas are being watched in the Atlantic this week
- System 1 (near Bermuda): Brief development possible, moves north, threatens only Newfoundland with rain/wind
- System 2 (off Africa): Faces tough odds due to El Niño wind shear and dry air; if it develops, turns north; if weak, may bring showers to Lesser Antilles
- Neither is an immediate concern for the U.S. mainland
- We’re entering peak season — stay informed, have a plan
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What’s the difference between a tropical wave, depression, and storm?
- Tropical wave: A batch of thunderstorms moving west — the "seed" of a storm
- Tropical depression: Organized system with winds up to 38 mph
- Tropical storm: Organized system with winds 39–73 mph — gets a name (next is Dolly)
- Hurricane: Winds 74+ mph
2. Why does El Niño suppress Atlantic hurricanes?
El Niño warms the Pacific, which changes global wind patterns. Over the Atlantic, this creates stronger wind shear — winds that blow the tops off developing storms before they can organize.
3. Should I be worried if I live in the Lesser Antilles?
Monitor, don’t panic. The eastern system might bring increased showers early next week if it holds together. Check local forecasts daily — that’s what hurricane season preparedness looks like.
4. What does "merge with a cold front" mean for the Bermuda system?
Cold fronts are boundaries of cooler, drier air. When a tropical system merges with one, it loses its tropical characteristics (warm core, organized thunderstorms) and becomes a regular low-pressure system — essentially, it stops being a "tropical" threat.
5. How can I stay updated without getting overwhelmed?
- Check National Hurricane Center (nhc.gov) once or twice daily during peak season
- Follow one trusted local meteorologist or weather.gov
- Have a hurricane plan ready before a storm threatens — know your evacuation zone, supply kit, and communication plan
Article based on reporting by Rob Shackelford, meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com (University of Georgia graduate).