Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: A Four-Game Series Preview (June 29 – July 2)

What’s Going On?

The Milwaukee Brewers are back in action this week, and they’re staying right in the thick of the NL Central rivalry grind. This time, they’re welcoming the Cincinnati Reds to town for a four-game series. These two teams just faced each other less than a week ago, so there’s not much new to say about either squad — but there’s still plenty to break down as they get ready to do it again!

Where Do Both Teams Stand Right Now?

The Brewers

• Milwaukee just swept the Reds at Great American Ballpark (in Cincinnati) in their previous meeting.
• After that sweep, they came back home to face the Chicago Cubs.
• They won the first game of that series thanks to another great start from Jacob Misiorowski, but then dropped the last two games.
• Even with those two losses, the Brewers still hold a 5.5-game lead in the division as July begins. That’s a pretty comfortable cushion!

The Reds

• After losing to the Brewers, the Reds headed to Pittsburgh to face the Pirates.
• They bounced back nicely, winning two out of three games.
• The big reason? Their offense finally woke up, scoring 19 runs across those three games. That’s a lot of runs!

Injury Updates

Brewers

• Jared Koenig was activated from the injured list on Friday. This is a big deal!
• Here’s why: the Brewers’ bullpen (that’s the group of pitchers who come in after the starting pitcher) went from having too many left-handed pitchers to having almost none really fast.
• Right now, four left-handed relievers are on the injured list. Before Koenig came back, Aaron Ashby was the only healthy lefty in the bullpen.
• Koenig’s return gives them a much-needed second option.

The Reds

• The Reds didn’t get anyone healthy back.
• They actually lost two more players:
  • Tony Santillan (right-handed pitcher) went on the injured list with an oblique strain. He won’t be back until at least after the All-Star break.
  • Blake Dunn (outfielder) has a right elbow sprain. His return date is still unknown (listed as "TBD").

How Do These Teams Compare Statistically?

Here’s a quick look at how the Brewers and Reds stack up against each other:

Offense (Scoring Runs)

What this means in plain English: The Brewers don’t hit a lot of home runs, but they’re really good at scoring runs in other ways — like getting hits, moving runners over, and being smart on the basepaths. The Reds hit more home runs, but overall, they’re not as good at scoring runs.

Pitching

What this means in plain English: The Brewers’ pitching staff is one of the best in all of baseball. They prevent runs and strike out a ton of batters. The Reds’ pitching, on the other hand, is near the bottom of the league in both categories.

Game-by-Game Pitching Matchups

Here’s a breakdown of each game, including who’s pitching and what you should know about them.

Game 1 — Monday, June 29 @ 6:40 p.m.

LHP Robert Gasser (Brewers) vs. LHP Nick Lodolo (Reds)

Robert Gasser (Brewers)

• Record: 1-3 | ERA: 4.50 | FIP: 5.14
• Has made 6 starts this season, totaling 30 innings with 31 strikeouts.
• He hasn’t pitched since last Sunday in Atlanta, so he’s had a little extra rest.
• His last two starts (against the Guardians and Braves) were really good: 11 2/3 innings, only 2 runs allowed, 6 hits, 3 walks, and 12 strikeouts.
• His only career appearance against the Reds was a weird one last September. He pitched 2 2/3 innings and gave up 4 runs, but none of them were earned (meaning they were caused by defensive mistakes, not his pitching). So his ERA for that game was 0.00, but he still got the loss!

Quick note on "FIP": FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s a stat that tries to measure how a pitcher is doing based only on things they can control — strikeouts, walks, and home runs — while removing the effect of their team’s defense. Think of it as a way to see if a pitcher is actually doing well or just getting lucky.

Nick Lodolo (Reds)

• Record: 2-2 | ERA: 5.59 | FIP: 5.38
• 28 years old, has had a somewhat disappointing season so far.
• 46 2/3 innings, 38 strikeouts.
• His last start was actually against the Brewers just last week! He pitched well: 4 innings, 0 runs, 2 hits, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts in just 75 pitches. He had to leave the game after getting hit in the wrist by a comebacker (a ball hit right back at him), but he was dealing!
• In his career against Milwaukee, he’s 1-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings. So he’s historically pitched well against the Brewers.

Game 2 — Tuesday, June 30 @ 6:40 p.m.

RHP Brandon Sproat (Brewers) vs. RHP Rhett Lowder (Reds)

Brandon Sproat (Brewers)

• Record: 2-4 | ERA: 5.43 | FIP: 5.07
• Had a really rough start to the season, but has been much better lately.
• Over 69 2/3 innings total this season.
• In his last two outings (against the A’s, Guardians, and Reds), he pitched 15 2/3 innings with 5 earned runs, 7 hits, 3 walks, and 19 strikeouts. The only real problem? He gave up two home runs, and one of them was a grand slam (a home run with the bases loaded — 4 runs at once!).
• His most recent start was his best one: 6 scoreless innings against Cincinnati, allowing only 1 hit and hitting one batter, while striking out 10 in just 80 pitches. That’s dominant!
• His only other career appearance against the Reds was his MLB debut last season: 6 innings, 3 runs, 7 strikeouts.

Rhett Lowder (Reds)

• Record: 3-5 | ERA: 4.81 | FIP: 4.68
• 24 years old, having an okay-but-not-great season.
• 58 innings, 48 strikeouts through 12 starts.
• His last start was against the Brewers last week: 3 runs allowed, 8 hits, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. His team lost 6-5.
• In two career appearances against Milwaukee, he’s 0-2 with 4 runs allowed and 12 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings.

Game 3 — Wednesday, July 1 @ 7:10 p.m.

LHP Shane Drohan (Brewers) vs. LHP Andrew Abbott (Reds)

Shane Drohan (Brewers)

• Record: 3-2 | ERA: 3.12 | FIP: 3.15
• He’s become the sixth man in Milwaukee’s starting rotation — basically, he’s a starter who’s behind the main five pitchers in the rotation.
• 52 innings, 52 strikeouts this season.
• His last five appearances have all been as a starter.
• In his last start against the Reds, he pitched 4 1/3 scoreless innings but gave up 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 5. He threw 98 pitches in those 4 1/3 innings, which is a lot — so he’ll try to go deeper into the game this time around.

Andrew Abbott (Reds)

• Record: 5-4 | ERA: 3.90 | FIP: 5.05
• 27 years old, and he was an All-Star last season! But 2026 hasn’t been quite as good.
• His ERA (3.90) is solid, but his FIP (5.05) is more than a full run higher. This suggests he might be getting a little lucky and could see his ERA rise.
• He’s also striking out batters at a much lower rate: only 70 strikeouts in 90 innings.
• His last start was against the Pirates: 4 runs (3 earned), 5 1/3 innings, 6 strikeouts. He didn’t get a decision (meaning he didn’t get the win or the loss).
• In 8 career starts against the Brewers, he’s 3-4 with a 3.74 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 45 2/3 innings.

Game 4 — Thursday, July 2 @ 1:10 p.m.

RHP Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers) vs. TBD (Reds)

Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers)

• Record: 9-3 | ERA: 1.45 | FIP: 1.84
• This guy is absolutely dealing right now. He leads all of Major League Baseball in:
  • ERA (1.45) — the best in the league!
  • FIP (1.84) — also the best!
  • Strikeouts (146) — yep, the best!
  • WHIP (0.768) — still the best!

Quick note on "WHIP": WHIP stands for Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched. It measures how many runners a pitcher allows. The lower the number, the better. A WHIP under 1.000 is excellent, and Misiorowski’s 0.768 is outstanding. It means he allows fewer than one baserunner per inning!

• In his last start against the Cubs, he pitched 6 strong innings, gave up 1 run, allowed 2 hits and 4 walks, and struck out 8.
• He didn’t face the Reds in their most recent series, but he did face them twice last season — and it didn’t go great. In 3 2/3 total innings (one start, one relief appearance), he gave up 7 runs (6 earned), allowed 7 hits and 6 walks, and struck out 6.
• However, one of those rough outings was a game where Milwaukee was losing 8-1 and came back to win 10-8! So even when he struggled, the team found a way.

Reds’ Likely Starter: Chase Burns

• The Reds haven’t officially announced their starter, but this would be Churns Burns’ spot in the rotation.
• Record: 9-1 | ERA: 2.36 | FIP: 3.17
• 23 years old in his second MLB season, and he’s been fantastic.
• 91 2/3 innings, 112 strikeouts.
• The Brewers missed him last time through the rotation (meaning they didn’t have to face him), but he had a rough outing against the Pirates in his last start: 5 runs allowed, 9 hits, 10 strikeouts in just over 6 innings.
• His only career appearance against Milwaukee was last September: 1 2/3 innings in relief, 0 runs, 0 hits, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts. That’s a small sample size, but he looked sharp.

If Burns does start, this could be an incredible pitchers’ duel! You’d have Misiorowski (1.45 ERA, best in baseball) facing off against Burns (2.36 ERA, also elite). Don’t miss this one!

How to Watch and Listen

Important: Wednesday’s game is only on ESPN and the ESPN App. It won’t be on the usual Brewers TV channel, so make sure you have access to ESPN if you want to watch!

The Bottom Line

This is a really important stretch for the Brewers. They’re playing a lot of games against their NL Central rivals right now, and every game matters for their lead in the division. The author predicts Milwaukee will win three out of four games in this series.

Summary

• The Brewers are coming off a sweep of the Reds and a series loss to the Cubs, but still hold a 5.5-game division lead.
• The Reds bounced back from their losses to Milwaukee by taking two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates.
• Jared Koenig returned from the injured list, giving the Brewers’ bullpen a much-needed left-handed reliever.
• The Reds lost Tony Santillan (oblique) and Blake Dunn (elbow) to injuries.
• The Brewers have elite pitching (2nd in ERA, 1st in strikeouts) but don’t hit many home runs.
• The Reds hit a lot of home runs (100, 12th in MLB) but have below-average pitching (23rd in ERA and strikeouts).
• Jacob Misiorowski is having a phenomenal season and leads the league in ERA, FIP, strikeouts, and WHIP.
• The series features four intriguing pitching matchups, with Game 4 potentially being a marquee duel between Misiorowski and Chase Burns.
• Wednesday’s game is exclusively on ESPN.

FAQ

Q: What does "ERA" mean, and why does it matter?
A: ERA stands for Earned Run Average. It’s the average number of earned runs (runs that scored because of the pitcher’s pitching, not because of defensive errors) a pitcher allows per nine innings. The lower the ERA, the better. An ERA under 3.00 is considered excellent, and Jacob Misiorowski’s 1.45 is the best in all of baseball right now.

Q: Why is the Brewers’ home run total so low if they’re a good offensive team?
A: The Brewers don’t need to hit home runs to score runs. They’re really good at other things — like getting singles, doubles, and triples, stealing bases, and moving runners into scoring position. They rank in the top 10 in most offensive categories despite hitting only 73 home runs (tied for 26th). They just manufacture runs differently than teams that rely on the long ball.

Q: What’s the difference between the Brewers’ TV broadcast and the ESPN broadcast?
A: The Brewers have their own local TV channel that carries most of their games. However, Wednesday’s game on July 1 is a nationally exclusive broadcast on ESPN, meaning it won’t be shown on the regular Brewers TV channel. You’ll need access to ESPN or the ESPN App to watch that specific game.

Q: Who should I watch for in this series?
A: Keep your eyes on Jacob Misiorowski in Game 4. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this season, and if Chase Burns starts for the Reds, it could be an incredible showdown between two young, elite pitchers. Also watch Brandon Sproat in Game 2 — he’s been on a hot streak and his last start against the Reds was one of the best of his career.

Q: How important is this series for the Brewers?
A: Very important! The author calls this "the most important stretch of the season" for the Brewers because they’re playing so many games against their NL Central rivals. Winning these games helps them maintain (or grow) their 5.5-game division lead, which is crucial for making the playoffs.