BMW Championship Power Rankings: Dark Horses & Favorites Revealed
Everything You Need to Know About the BMW Championship at Bellerive
What’s Happening This Week?
The BMW Championship is the second stop in the FedExCup Playoffs — think of it like the semifinals in golf’s version of March Madness. Only the top 50 players made it here, and they’re playing at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri.
Important Point: Making the top 50 isn’t just about this week — it locks these players into all Signature Events in 2027. That’s like getting a VIP pass for next season’s biggest tournaments.
Why Bellerive? And Why Does It Look Different?
A Course with History
- Bellerive last hosted the PGA TOUR in 2018 for the PGA Championship (won by Brooks Koepka)
- 17 players from that 2018 field are back this week
- But the course has had a major makeover since then
The Renovation Lowdown
| What Changed | Details |
|---|---|
| Architect | Rees Jones (son of original designer Robert Trent Jones) |
| Timeline | ~22 months of work |
| New Grass | T-1 bentgrass on all greens (replaced old A-4) |
| Green Speed | 12½ feet on the Stimpmeter (that’s fast) |
| Total Length | 7,448 yards (par 70) — 132 yards longer than 2018 |
| Holes Lengthened | 14 of 18 holes |
| Holes Shortened | 2 holes (barely) |
| Unchanged | Par-4 15th (495 yds) & Par-3 16th (237 yds) |
Fun Fact: Bellerive is also scheduled to host the Presidents Cup in 2030 — so this week is like a sneak preview for players hoping to make that team.
How the Course Plays
Scoring Friendly (Historically)
- 2018 PGA Championship scoring average: 70.125 (barely over par!)
- Field was under par for the final three rounds
- Huge, welcoming greens mean great putters can compete with great ball-strikers
The "Lefty" Bias
- Almost every dogleg bends LEFT
- Favors a right-to-left ball flight (a "draw" for right-handed golfers)
- Thick rough (4 inches of fescue/bluegrass) punishes wayward drives
The Exception: Hole 17
- Only par-5 on the back nine that bends RIGHT
- New tee box added 27 yards — now 624 yards (longest hole on course)
- Plays left-to-right from tee to green
Spectator Sweet Spot: "The Ridge"
- Holes 14, 15, and 16 sit on elevated ground
- Best viewing experience on the property
What’s at Stake? (The Playoff Math)
Top 30 Advance to the TOUR Championship
If you finish in the top 30 after this week, you get:
Shot at the FedExCup (and its massive bonus)
Full PGA TOUR exemption through 2028
Entry into all three 2027 majors: Masters, U.S. Open, The Open Championship
Important Point: Players currently ranked 31–50 in the FedExCup standings must play lights-out to crack the top 30. See the exact bubble scenarios here.
Weather Forecast (Golfer’s Dream)
| Day | Conditions |
|---|---|
| Thursday | Only real rain chance (morning) |
| All Week | Highs in the 80s |
| Wind | Minimal — barely a breeze |
| Daylight | Plenty — small field (50 players) means no rush |
Translation: Perfect scoring conditions. Low scores expected.
Rob Bolton’s Content Schedule
PGATOUR.com’s Rob Bolton covers every tournament. Here’s when to find his stuff:
| Day | Content |
|---|---|
| Monday | Power Rankings |
| Tuesday | Fantasy Insider • Expert Picks • Sleepers |
| Sunday | Points and Payouts • Qualifiers |
Pro Tip: Sign up for The Early Card newsletter to get Tuesday-exclusive content (including Rob’s Sleepers) delivered to your inbox.
Summary
- 50 players, one course, 30 spots in the TOUR Championship
- Bellerive is longer, faster, and renovated since 2018
- Draw hitters have an edge (most holes bend left)
- Hole 17 is the beast — 624 yards, bends right
- Weather is perfect for low scores
- Top 30 = majors access + full status + FedExCup shot
- Rob Bolton has you covered all week with rankings, fantasy, and recaps
FAQ
What is the FedExCup Playoffs?
Think of it as golf’s postseason. The top 70 players after the regular season enter a 3-tournament knockout:
- FedEx St. Jude Championship (top 70 → top 50)
- BMW Championship (top 50 → top 30) ← WE ARE HERE
- TOUR Championship (top 30 play for the FedExCup)
What are "Signature Events"?
The PGA TOUR’s new premium tournaments (starting 2024) with:
- Smaller fields (70-80 players)
- No cuts
- Bigger purses ($20M+)
- More FedExCup points
- Getting into all 2027 Signature Events is a huge career advantage
Why does green speed (Stimpmeter) matter?
The Stimpmeter measures how far a ball rolls on a green. 12.5 feet is TOUR-level fast — putts will break more, stop harder, and require delicate touch. Players who putt well on fast greens gain a big edge.
What’s a "draw" and why does it help here?
A draw (for righties) curves gently right-to-left. Since 14+ holes at Bellerive bend left, a draw lets players:
- Cut the corner on doglegs
- Hit shorter approach shots
- Avoid the thick left rough
Can players outside the top 30 still make the TOUR Championship?
Yes, but it’s hard. They need a high finish (likely top 5-10) and help from players ahead of them playing poorly. The math gets tricky — check the official scenarios for your favorite player.
Written by Rob Bolton | 5-minute read | Follow @RobBoltonGolf on X for live updates