Closer Chaos: Scott & Chapman Bullpen Shakeup You Can’t Miss
MLB Bullpen Breakdown: August 2026 Edition — Who’s Actually Getting the Saves?
Welcome to your cheat sheet for the wild world of MLB bullpens. Think of this as a "traffic report" for the ninth inning: we’ll tell you which lanes are open, which are under construction, and where the detours are.
This Week’s Big Bullpen News
Quick Hits: The Headlines You Need to Know
- Edwin Díaz (LAD) — He came back from elbow surgery hoping to lock down the Dodgers’ closer job. It didn’t go well. In his last outing, his fastball topped out at 93 mph (down from his usual elite velocity), he gave up three runs, and the Dodgers put him back on the Injured List. His MRI was clean, but when he returns and what role he’ll have are big question marks. For now, Tanner Scott is the guy. Scott has been lights-out: 18-for-20 on save chances, a microscopic 0.92 WHIP, and a 26.4% K-BB rate.
- Daniel Palencia (CHC) — The Cubs are activating him Friday, but they haven’t promised him the closer role. Manager Craig Counsell trusts Jacob Webb in high-leverage spots, so Palencia will have to earn save chances slowly.
- Félix Bautista (BAL) — The flamethrower starts his rehab assignment in the next few days. He’s the long-term answer in Baltimore, but he needs to build up innings first.
- Justin Martinez (ARI) — Activated and looked sharp in Boston (scoreless, one walk). If his command and health hold, he could sneak into save situations soon.
How Teams Manage Their Bullpens: The 4 "Leverage Pathways"
Not every team uses their relievers the same way. Imagine a relay race: some teams have a set order (Runner A always runs the 3rd leg), while others swap runners based on who’s fresh or who matches up best against the other team. Here are the four main strategies:
| Label | Simple Explanation | What It Means for You |
|---|---|---|
| Mostly Linear | The Traditional Model. Manager has a set 7th-inning guy, 8th-inning guy, and a Closer for the 9th. Predictable. | Target the "Closer (Primary)" for saves. The "Stopper" is great for holds. |
| Primary Save Share | The "Main Guy + Matchups" Model. One pitcher gets most saves, but the manager will pull him for a lefty/righty matchup or if he’s tired. | The Primary gets the bulk of saves, but the "Stopper" and "Stealth" guys will steal a few each week. |
| Shared Saves | The Timeshare. Two (or more) relievers split save chances — often by handedness (Left vs. Right) or just to keep everyone fresh. | No single "lock." You often need both pitchers to capture all the team’s saves. |
| Fluid | The "Who Knows?" Model. No named closer. Usage changes daily based on matchups, rest, and vibes. | High risk, high reward. Watch daily lineups; stream the hot hand. |
American League Leverage Pathways (15 Teams)
Note: The original table did not include team names. Each row represents one AL team. Players listed help you identify the club.
| Leverage Pathway | Closer (Primary) | Stopper / HLR (High-Leverage Reliever) | Stealth / Ancillary Option |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Save Share | Andrew Kittredge | Yennier Cano | Cam Sanders |
| Mostly Linear | Aroldis Chapman | Tyron Guerrero | Erik Miller |
| Shared Saves | Grant Taylor | Bryan Hudson | Jordan Hicks |
| Mostly Linear | Cade Smith | Hunter Gaddis | Colin Holderman |
| Mostly Linear | Kenley Jansen | Kyle Finnegan | Drew Sommers |
| Mostly Linear | Josh Hader | Bryan Abreu | Steven Okert |
| Primary Save Share | Steven Cruz | Nate Pearson | John Schreiber |
| Primary Save Share | Ben Joyce | Samy Natera Jr. | José Fermin |
| Mostly Linear | Yoendrys Gómez | Andrew Morris | Jeff Hoffman |
| Mostly Linear | David Bednar | Paul Blackburn | Brent Headrick |
| Mostly Linear | Andrés Muñoz | Eduard Bazardo | Gabe Speier |
| Mostly Linear | Bryan Baker | Kevin Kelly | Garrett Cleavinger |
| Mostly Linear | Jacob Latz | Jakob Junis | Tyler Alexander |
| Primary Save Share | Hogan Harris | Luis Medina | Elvis Alvarado |
| Mostly Linear | Louis Varland | Tyler Rogers | Braydon Fisher |
National League Leverage Pathways (15 Teams)
Same note: Rows = teams. Pitchers identify the club.
| Leverage Pathway | Closer (Primary) | Stopper / HLR | Stealth / Ancillary Option |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shared Saves | Jonathan Loáisiga | Brandyn Garcia | Justin Martinez |
| Mostly Linear | Raisel Iglesias | Dylan Lee | Didier Fuentes |
| Primary Save Share | Jacob Webb | Daniel Palencia | Ryan Zeferjahn |
| Mostly Linear | Emilio Pagán | Brock Burke | Luis Mey |
| Mostly Linear | Jordan Romano | Brennan Bernardino | Jaden Hill |
| Primary Save Share | Tanner Scott | Edgardo Henriquez | Jack Dreyer |
| Mostly Linear | Pete Fairbanks | Michael Petersen | Calvin Faucher |
| Mostly Linear | Trevor Megill | Aaron Ashby | Chad Patrick |
| Primary Save Share | Kodai Senga | Daniel Duarte | Nate Lavender |
| Mostly Linear | Jhoan Duran | Jonathan Bowlan | Brooks Raley |
| Shared Saves | Mason Montgomery | Luke Weaver | Gregory Soto |
| Mostly Linear | Riley O’Brien | George Soriano | Ryne Stanek |
| Mostly Linear | Mason Miller | Adrian Morejon | Jeremiah Estrada |
| Primary Save Share | Dylan Smith | Keaton Winn | Jason Foley |
| Shared Saves | Clayton Beeter | Orlando Ribalta | Yovanny Cruz |
STOCK UP — Pitchers Trending Way Up Right Now
Add These Immediately If Available
American League
- Ben Joyce (LAA) — Unhittable lately. Zero runs in first 6 appearances. Zero baserunners in last 4. Three straight saves. Triple-digit heat with improving command.
- Grant Taylor (CHW) — August dominance: 0.00 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10 K / 3 BB in 11.1 IP. Leads White Sox with 3 saves in the second half. Role confusion hurts fantasy value, but performance demands a roster spot.
- Brayan Bello (BOS) — Not a closer, but a ratio superhero. Last 5 relief/bulk outings: 3 Wins, 1 Save, 13 K / 3 BB, 0.85 WHIP in 17.2 IP. Vultures wins, protects ERA/WHIP.
National League
- Mason Montgomery (PIT) — Nine-game scoreless streak. 3 saves, 2 wins, 0.63 WHIP, 17 K / 2 BB (46.9% K-BB!) in 7 IP. Left-handed weapon in a shared saves situation.
- Tanner Scott (LAD) — Back in the saddle. 18/20 saves on season. 0 runs in 7 of 8 August games. The clear guy while Díaz is out.
- Daniel Duarte (NYM) — Eight-game scoreless streak. 2 saves, 4 holds, 0.46 WHIP, 7 K / 3 BB in 8.2 IP. Deep-league gold: elite ratios + ancillary saves.
- Luis Mey (CIN) — Since Aug 7 call-up: 6 scoreless outings, 3 multi-inning, 0.72 WHIP, 16 K / 2 BB (40% K-BB) in 9.2 IP. High-leverage trust building fast.
CLOSER CONCERNS — Proceed With Caution
Yellow Flags: These Guys Have Cracks in the Armor
American League
- Aroldis Chapman (BOS) — No save since Aug 1. Last 4 outings: 5/17 batters reached (3 hits, 2 BB), 3 runs (2 ER), only 3 K. Post-ASB: 13% walk rate, 3.36 SIERA, throwing just 51.4% strikes. The velocity plays, but the command is vanishing.
- Steven Cruz (KC) — Leads Royals with 5 2nd-half saves. Good surface stats (0.94 WHIP, 14.5% K-BB), BUT 85.7% contact rate and only 8.1% SwStr% scream regression coming. Sell high if you can.
National League
- Emilio Pagán (CIN) — Hamstring + hand issues. 9/9 saves in 2nd half, 0.69 WHIP, 28% K-BB. BUT 97.6% strand rate (extreme luck) and 2.08 ERA vs. much worse peripherals. If Reds fall out of race, he could be shut down for 2027 prep.
- Clayton Beeter (WSH) — Hasn’t done anything wrong, but team uses him as "best reliever" not "closer." 5 of team’s 6 2nd-half saves, but last save was Aug 7. 2nd half: 1.13 WHIP, 4.8% K-BB, 4.73 SIERA. If he’s not closing, fantasy value evaporates.
SAVE STREAMERS — Short-Term Pickups for This Week
Guys in shared/ancillary roles who might get a save or two.
- Steven Cruz (KC) — Primary share, but regression risk high.
- Bryan Hudson & Jordan Hicks (CHW) — Shared saves behind Taylor.
- Mason Montgomery & Luke Weaver (PIT) — Left/right timeshare.
- Daniel Duarte (NYM) — Primary share behind Senga? Actually listed as Stopper, but getting saves.
- Aaron Ashby (MIL) — Stopper behind Megill, multi-inning weapon.
SAVE STASHES — Deep League / IL Stashes for Future Value
Injured or buried now, but could close later.
- Cam Sanders & Félix Bautista (BAL) — Bautista is the future; Sanders holds fort.
- Carlos Duran (KC) — High-upside arm waiting for chance.
- Justin Martinez (ARI) — Activated, command/health permitting.
- Luis Mey (CIN) — Already pitching like a closer in waiting.
- Yovanny Cruz (WSH) — Ancillary in shared saves, high stuff.
LEADERBOARDS — Who’s Actually Doing It (Thru Aug 17)
Saves Leaders (Season / Last 14 Days)
| Season Leader | Saves | Last 14 Days Leader | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | 36 | Yoendrys Gómez | 6 |
| Riley O’Brien | 32 | Riley O’Brien | 5 |
| Mason Miller | 31 | David Bednar | 4 |
| Cade Smith | 31 | Bryan Baker | 4 |
| David Bednar | 29 | Kodai Senga | 4 |
| Louis Varland | 28 | Louis Varland | 4 |
| Jhoan Duran | 28 | Josh Hader | 3 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 27 | Jacob Webb | 3 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 25 | Jacob Latz | 3 |
| Jacob Latz | 24 | Ben Joyce | 3 |
| …Paul Sewald, Andrés Muñoz, Trevor Megill, Yoendrys Gómez, Josh Hader, Tanner Scott, Pete Fairbanks all 18-24 | Jhoan Duran, Jordan Romano, Emilio Pagán, Hogan Harris, Kenley Jansen, Andrés Muñoz, Mason Miller all 3 |
Holds Leaders (Season / Last 14 Days)
| Season Leader | Holds | Last 14 Days Leader | Holds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Lee | 28 | Tanner Scott | 5 |
| Tyler Rogers | 26 | Jonathan Bowlan | 4 |
| Kevin Kelly | 25 | Tyler Holton | 4 |
| Hunter Gaddis | 24 | A.J. Minter | 4 |
| Ryne Stanek | 24 | Nathan Lavender | 4 |
| Eduard Bazardo | 24 | Dylan Lee | 4 |
| …Garrett Whitlock, Garrett Cleavinger, Michael Petersen, Erik Sabrowski, JoJo Romero all 21 | Ryne Stanek, Jeff Hoffman, Brent Headrick, Andrew Morris all 4 |
SOLDS Leaders (Saves + Holds = Total High-Leverage Appearances)
| Season Leader | SOLDS | Last 14 Days Leader | SOLDS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | 38 | Tanner Scott | 7 |
| Riley O’Brien | 33 | Yoendrys Gómez | 6 |
| Louis Varland | 33 | Riley O’Brien | 5 |
| Mason Miller | 31 | Grant Taylor | 5 |
| Cade Smith | 31 | Jonathan Bowlan | 5 |
| Tanner Scott | 30 | Tyler Holton | 5 |
| Tyler Rogers | 30 | David Bednar | 4 |
| David Bednar | 29 | Bryan Baker | 4 |
| Trevor Megill | 29 | Kodai Senga | 4 |
| Kevin Kelly | 29 | Louis Varland | 4 |
| …Jhoan Duran, Dylan Lee, Aroldis Chapman, Jacob Latz, Yoendrys Gómez, Raisel Iglesias, Hunter Gaddis, Ryne Stanek, Paul Sewald, Abner Uribe, Eduard Bazardo all 24-28 | Ben Joyce, Tyler Rogers, Daniel Duarte, A.J. Minter, Nathan Lavender, Jeff Hoffman, Brent Headrick, Andrew Morris, Ryne Stanek all 4 |
Why SOLDS Matters: It captures total high-leverage usage. Guys like Tanner Scott (30), Tyler Rogers (30), Kevin Kelly (29), and Hunter Gaddis (25) are fantasy gold in holds leagues or as "next man up" if the closer falters.
RATIO RELIEVERS — The Secret Weapons for ERA/WHIP
Multi-inning/bridge guys who vulture wins, rack up Ks, and protect your ratios. Roster in all leagues.
- Steven Okert (HOU) — Left-handed specialist, elite command.
- Brayan Bello (BOS) — The "bulk reliever" king (see Stock Up).
- Bradgley Rodriguez (SD) — Emerging high-leverage arm.
- Daniel Duarte (NYM) — Double-dip: ratio protector + save upside.
SUMMARY: Your Weekend Action Plan
- LOCK IN TANNER SCOTT (LAD) everywhere. He’s the closer until Díaz proves he’s healthy and effective.
- GRAB BEN JOYCE (LAA) and GRANT TAYLOR (CHW) off waivers immediately. Performance > role confusion.
- STASH FÉLIX BAUTISTA (BAL) and JUSTIN MARTINEZ (ARI) on IL/bench spots. High upside returns.
- SELL HIGH ON STEVEN CRUZ (KC) and AROLDIS CHAPMAN (BOS) if you have buyers. Peripherals are screaming regression.
- STREAM MASON MONTGOMERY (PIT) and DANIEL DUARTE (NYM) this week for saves/holds/ratios.
- IGNORE TEAM NAMES ON THE TABLES — focus on the Pathway Label and the Pitcher Names. That tells you the usage pattern.
FAQ: Your Bullpen Questions Answered
Q: What does "K-BB%" mean and why do you keep citing it?
A: It stands for Strikeout Rate minus Walk Rate. It’s the single best simple stat for reliever skill. High K-BB% = they miss bats and throw strikes. It predicts future ERA better than ERA itself. >20% is elite; >15% is very good; <10% is scary.
Q: My closer got hurt/demoted. How do I find the next guy?
A: Check the Leverage Pathway for that team.
- Mostly Linear → The "Stopper/HLR" is almost always next in line.
- Primary Save Share → The "Stopper" or "Stealth" guy gets the next chance.
- Shared Saves → Look at handedness (Left vs. Right) of the next day’s opponent’s lineup.
- Fluid → Check beat writer tweets 30 mins before game time.
Q: What is a "Vulture Win" and why is Brayan Bello good for them?
A: A reliever gets a "vulture win" when he enters in a tie game (or his team takes the lead while he’s pitching) and his team wins. Bello throws multiple innings out of the bullpen. More innings = more chances to be the pitcher of record when his team scores. Plus, those innings lower your team ERA/WHIP.
Q: Should I drop a struggling big-name closer (like Chapman) for a hot waiver guy (like Joyce)?
A: In shallow leagues (10-12 teams): Yes. Chapman’s command collapse is structural, not a slump. Joyce’s stuff is unhittable.
In deep leagues (15+) or dynasty: Hold Chapman if you have IL spots or bench depth. The track record is too long to cut for 3 weeks of command issues, but bench him until strikes return.
Q: What does "SIERA" and "xERA" mean in the Closer Concerns section?
A: They are "Skill-Interactive ERA" (SIERA) and "Expected ERA" (xERA). Think of them as "What his ERA should be based on how he actually pitched (contact quality, Ks, BBs), ignoring luck." If ERA << SIERA/xERA, the pitcher is getting lucky (balls finding gloves, runners stranded). Regression is coming.
Statistical Credits: FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Savant, BrooksBaseball. For daily updates, check out Reliever Recon (Patreon) and Closer Monkey.
Good luck navigating the ninth inning!