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NOAA Confirms: Atlantic Hurricane Season Staying Below Normal
NOAA Updates 2026 Hurricane Season Forecast: Fewer Storms Expected
What’s the Big News?
As we approach the peak of hurricane season in early September, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has updated its forecast — and the news is relatively good for the Atlantic coast. Scientists now predict a 75% chance of a "below-normal" hurricane season. That means fewer storms than usual are expected to form between June 1 and November 30.
Important Point: This forecast covers the entire season, including the two storms that have already happened.
The Numbers: What NOAA Predicts
Here’s the breakdown of what forecasters expect for the whole 2026 Atlantic hurricane season:
| Storm Type | Predicted Range | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Named Storms (winds ≥ 39 mph) | 7 – 13 | Total storms strong enough to get a name |
| Hurricanes (winds ≥ 74 mph) | 2 – 6 | Storms that reach hurricane strength |
| Major Hurricanes (winds ≥ 111 mph) | 0 – 2 | Category 3 or higher — the most dangerous |
For comparison: A typical season brings 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. So this year is expected to be well below average.
Chance of Each Season Type:
- Below-normal: 75% Most likely
- Near-normal: 20%
- Above-normal: 5% Very unlikely
So Far This Season: Arthur and Bertha
Only two named storms have formed so far — both in the Gulf of America (not the open Atlantic):
1. Tropical Storm Arthur (mid-June)
- Formed off the Texas coast
- Brought record rainfall to Louisiana
- Spawned tornadoes along the Gulf Coast
2. Tropical Storm Bertha
- Formed south of the Florida Panhandle
- Made landfall in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana
Key Lesson from NOAA Director Ken Graham:
"Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms… even if it never reaches hurricane strength."
→ Prepare for every storm that might hit your area.
Arthur and Bertha are crossed off the list. Next up: Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard…
Why Fewer Storms? The El Niño Effect
The main reason for the quiet Atlantic? El Niño — a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that started in June and is getting stronger.
How El Niño Hurts Atlantic Hurricanes:
- It increases wind shear — fast-changing winds at different altitudes
- Wind shear tears storms apart — or stops them from forming in the first place
- It becomes the "boss" of the season — other factors matter less when El Niño is strong
Forecaster Matt Rosencrans:
"When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor… other mechanisms play a smaller role."
Other Factors (Less Important This Year):
- Atlantic Ocean temps: Near average (not extra warm)
- West African monsoon: Neutral (not boosting storm seeds)
What About the Pacific?
El Niño helps storms in the Pacific — it’s the opposite effect!
| Basin | Forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern Pacific | 15–22 named storms (above average) | 7 storms so far, 2 hurricanes, 1 major |
| Central Pacific | 5–13 storms/depressions (above normal) | Season underway |
Bottom line: El Niño = Quiet Atlantic, Busy Pacific
Important: This Isn’t a Landfall Forecast
Critical Distinction:
NOAA’s seasonal outlook predicts total storm numbers — NOT where storms will hit land.
- Landfalls depend on short-term weather patterns (predictable only ~1 week out)
- For actual storm tracking, use NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- 7-day tropical outlooks
- Track & intensity forecasts
- Official watches & warnings (including storm surge)
How to Stay Informed
| Resource | What You Get |
|---|---|
| hurricanes.gov | Official NHC forecasts, maps, alerts |
| @NHC_Atlantic on X (Twitter) | Real-time updates |
| NWS NHC on Facebook | Visual storm info & safety tips |
| weather.gov/safety/hurricanes-hazards | Prep guides, evacuation info, supply lists |
Pro tip: Bookmark these before a storm forms!
Summary
- 2026 Atlantic season: 75% chance below normal
- Predicted: 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 major
- Two storms so far: Arthur & Bertha (both Gulf, both rainy)
- El Niño = strong wind shear = fewer Atlantic storms
- Pacific basins: Above-normal activity expected
- Outlook ≠ landfall forecast — use NHC for real-time tracking
- Stay ready: Even weak storms bring dangerous rain & tornadoes
FAQ
1. Does "below-normal" mean no hurricanes will hit the U.S.?
No. Even quiet seasons can have landfalling storms. 1992 was below-normal — but Hurricane Andrew devastated Florida. Prepare every year.
2. What is wind shear, and why does it stop hurricanes?
Imagine a stack of pancakes. If you blow the top ones sideways but not the bottom, the stack falls over. Wind shear does that to storms — it tilts and weakens them so they can’t organize or grow.
3. Why does El Niño help Pacific storms but hurt Atlantic ones?
El Niño warms the central/eastern Pacific, adding fuel and reducing shear there. But it shifts global wind patterns, increasing shear over the Atlantic — exactly where hurricanes try to form.
4. Should I ignore hurricane prep this year since the forecast is low?
Absolutely not. Forecasts are for total numbers, not your location. One storm hitting you makes it a bad year for you. Prepare like it’s an active season.
5. When is the peak of hurricane season?
Early September — but storms can form anytime from June 1 to November 30. Stay alert through Thanksgiving.
Stay safe. Stay informed. And remember: It only takes one storm to change everything.
