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Poll: Byron Donalds Crushes GOP Field with Massive 31-Point Lead
New Poll Shows Byron Donalds Way Ahead in Florida Governor Race
The Big Picture
A new survey from the James Madison Institute (JMI) gives us a snapshot of who might be Florida’s next Governor. Think of it like a practice vote before the real election — it helps us see who’s popular right now.
IMPORTANT POINT
This poll was conducted July 20-26, 2026, with 1,400 registered Florida voters. The margin of error is ±2.62%, meaning the real numbers could be a little higher or lower.
Republican Primary: Donalds Has a Big Lead
The Numbers (Among Likely Republican Voters)
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Byron Donalds (Current U.S. Congressman from Naples) | 49% |
| Jay Collins (Current Lieutenant Governor) | 18% |
| Paul Renner (Former Florida House Speaker) | 8% |
| James Fishback (Businessman) | 4% |
What This Means in Simple Terms
- Donalds is nearly at 50% — that’s huge! In politics, getting close to 50% in a primary with multiple candidates means you’re very close to winning outright.
- Collins is in clear second place at 18% — this is actually one of his best poll results so far.
- Renner is doing better than most other polls have shown him.
- Fishback is struggling — only 4%, even among young voters who were supposed to be his supporters.
Among ALL Registered Republicans (Not Just Likely Voters)
- Donalds still leads with 46% (only drops 3 points)
- Even among people who probably won’t vote, Donalds gets 28%
- This suggests Donalds has broad support, not just from super-motivated voters
Age Breakdown: Young Voters Love Donalds Too
- Voters under 25: Donalds gets 61%, Fishback only gets 5%
- This is surprising because Fishback was supposed to be the "young candidate"
Democratic Primary: Jolly Is the Clear Favorite
The Numbers
| Candidate | Registered Voters | Likely Voters |
|---|---|---|
| David Jolly (Former Republican Congressman) | 42% | 47% |
| Dayna Foster | 5% | 4% |
| Undecided | Over 40% | Over 40% |
Key Context
- Jolly used to be a Republican — he switched parties
- Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings was expected to run but dropped out after a cancer diagnosis
- Since Demings left, Jolly has been treated as the presumptive nominee (the person everyone expects to win)
- Lots of undecided voters — over 40% haven’t made up their minds yet
General Election: What Happens in November?
The poll tested two possible matchups for the general election (the big November vote where everyone votes).
Matchup 1: Byron Donalds (R) vs. David Jolly (D)
| Group | Donalds | Jolly |
|---|---|---|
| All Registered Voters | 40% | 36% |
| Likely Voters | 45% | 38% |
Matchup 2: Jay Collins (R) vs. David Jolly (D)
| Group | Collins | Jolly |
|---|---|---|
| All Registered Voters | 40% | 37% |
| Likely Voters | 44% | 39% |
The Party Loyalty Factor
- Republicans stick with their candidate: 75%+ support their nominee regardless of who it is
- Democrats stick with Jolly: 80%+ support him regardless of Republican opponent
- Independents are the swing vote: Jolly wins them big!
- vs. Donalds: Jolly 36% vs. Donalds 19% (40%+ undecided)
- vs. Collins: Jolly 34% vs. Collins 21% (40%+ undecided)
IMPORTANT POINT
Jolly runs much more competitively than Charlie Crist did against Ron DeSantis in 2022. That race wasn’t close — this one could be!
What the Candidates Are Saying
Byron Donalds (Radio Interview)
"Coming into this election cycle, we knew that it would be tougher… but people still want common-sense conservative policies. We have a good lead now, but we want it to be better. We’re going to engage every voter in the state, every household in the state."
Translation: "We expected a fight. People like our ideas. We’re winning but not taking anything for granted. We’ll talk to everyone."
Summary: What You Need to Know
- Republican Primary: Byron Donalds is the clear frontrunner with ~49% support — nearly double his closest rival
- Democratic Primary: David Jolly is the presumptive nominee with ~42-47%, but lots of undecideds remain
- General Election: Republican leads in both matchups, but Jolly makes it competitive, especially with independents
- Independents are key: 40%+ are undecided — they’ll likely decide the election
- Young voters: Surprisingly backing Donalds over the "youth candidate" Fishback
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
What does "likely voters" mean?
Likely voters are people who the pollsters think will actually show up to vote. They base this on voting history, how interested someone says they are, and other factors. It’s different from "registered voters" (everyone signed up to vote).
What is the "margin of error"?
The ±2.62% margin of error means if Donalds is at 49%, his true support is probably between 46.38% and 51.62%. It’s a way of saying "polls aren’t perfect."
Why are there so many undecided independents?
Independents don’t belong to a party, so they often decide later. With 40%+ undecided, this race could shift significantly before November.
Can Jay Collins still win the Republican primary?
Technically yes, but it’s very unlikely. He’s 31 points behind Donalds. In politics, that’s a massive gap to close in a primary.
Why does Jolly do better with independents than Republicans?
Jolly used to be a Republican Congressman. Independents may see him as more moderate or bipartisan. Plus, he’s not tied to the current Republican leadership in Florida.
How This Poll Was Done
Who: Targoz Market Research
When: July 20–26, 2026
Who they asked: 1,400 Florida registered voters
Margin of error: ±2.62 percentage points
Where to see full results: jmipoll.com
This article explains a political poll in simple terms. Polls are snapshots in time — things can change before Election Day!
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