The final rounds of Nations League games over the next week will bring the 2026 World Cup sharply into focus in Europe.
Standout games include Italy hosting France — who will again be without captain Kylian Mbappé — on Sunday, though the most consequential look like being Netherlands-Hungary on Saturday and Serbia-Denmark on Monday.
That’s because Nations League standings, and results that factor into the next FIFA rankings published on Nov. 28, will confirm seedings for the 12 European qualifying groups for the next World Cup in North America. FIFA makes an unusually complex draw on Dec. 13 in Zurich.
Off the field, France hosting Israel on Thursday is now a high-security operation, though fewer than 20,000 tickets had been sold days before the game at the 80,000-capacity Stade de France.
Street clashes in Amsterdam last week between local residents and visiting ultra fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv became a diplomatic incident, and led to a security review of all international games for Israeli teams.
Mbappé has not been selected by France for the second straight month. Norway captain Martin Odegaard has returned to London for more treatment on the ankle injury he got in a Nations League game in September.
Odegaard’s Arsenal teammates Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice opted out of England’s games in a second-tier group.
England also had Cole Palmer, Phil Foden and Trent Alexander-Arnold withdrawing ahead of playing at group leader Greece on Thursday and hosting Ireland on Sunday.
In such a busy season, with two extra Champions League games in January for many elite players, the Nations League is not a top priority.
When the groups finish Tuesday, the eight teams advancing to the first-ever quarterfinal stage in March will be known. It’s the latest expansion in the third-tier competition which crowns a champion at a Final Four mini-tournament in June.
The quarterfinalists will be those placing first and second in each of the four groups in top-tier League A. Spain and Germany already secured their positions after the two rounds played in October . France and Croatia look well set to join them.
Also in March, third-place teams in League A groups will face runners-up in the four groups in second-tier League B in promotion-relegation playoffs over two legs. All those teams involved cannot start their World Cup qualifying program until at least June. Some will start in September.
European soccer will send 16 teams to the first 48-team men’s World Cup being hosted in 2026 by the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Firstly, 54 of the 55 UEFA member countries will play in qualifying groups next year. Russia is still excluded during its invasion of Ukraine.
Only the 12 group winners in one year’s time advance direct to the tournament, before the other four European entries are decided by playoff brackets in March 2026.
Four of the 16 playoff teams will have won their Nations League group this month but then failed next year to finish in the top two of their World Cup qualifying group. The 12 runners-up in qualifying groups also get a second chance in the playoffs.
There are now 12 European qualifying groups instead of 10, each with four or five teams and no longer any with six. Top-seeded status in the World Cup draw is an even bigger chance to avoid tough opponents.
Those 12 top-seeded teams will be the eight Nations League quarterfinalists plus the four best of the rest ranked by FIFA. Those will include England and Belgium.
Hungary and Serbia have much to gain now. They can outperform their FIFA rankings — currently Nos. 32 and 33 respectively, and otherwise destined for seeding pot 2 in the Zurich draw — by rising to finish second in their Nations League groups.
Hungary goes to the Netherlands before hosting Germany on Tuesday. In the group led by Spain, Serbia goes to Switzerland on Friday then hosts Denmark.
Teams that fall into seeding pot 3 can face a difficult path to the World Cup.
Norway, with Erling Haaland likely in its team, are safely in pot 2 as the 24th-highest ranked team in Europe, though avoiding defeat at Slovenia on Thursday will help.
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