A Friendly Guide to Possible Storms Near the Gulf and Southeast U.S.

Hey there! Let’s talk about some weather that might happen soon, explained like you’re five years old.

What May Happen

Right now, a swirl of air with lower pressure (think of it like a gentle spinning toy) is forming in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico, close to Florida. This spin has been making extra thunderstorm clouds over Florida.

• Computer guesses (called models) say this swirl could get stronger over the weekend.
• If it keeps its thunderstorms and stays out in the water, it might become a tropical depression (a baby storm) or even a named storm called Tropical Storm Bertha by early next week.
• Even if it doesn’t get a name, it could bring rain and stronger winds to the coasts of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, and make the Gulf water bumpy.

The water in the northeast Gulf and off the Southeast coast is warmer than usual—some as warm as the upper 80s (in °F). Warm water is like food for thunderstorms, helping them grow.

Important Point: We are in hurricane season, and weather can change fast. Even if things seem calm now, keep an eye on updates!

After this weekend, here are three things the swirl might do:

1. It may slide onto land quickly over Florida or the Southeast.
2. It could sit for a while over the northeast Gulf.
3. It could drift west in the northern Gulf.

For now, if you live near the Gulf or Southeast coast, there’s not too much to worry about. But it’s always smart to be ready for hurricane season before any storm shows up. (More on staying safe: How to stay safe in hurricane season)

The possible area(s) of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by polygons, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days. An "X" indicates the location of a current disturbance.

Soaking Rain Possible

You don’t need a named storm to get a lot of rain in summer. Just regular summer weather can do it!

• No matter if the swirl becomes a storm, heavy rain is possible this weekend into early next week from Florida and the northern Gulf Coast to the Carolinas.
• Some places could get up to 5 inches of rain, especially from west-central Florida to the Big Bend area.
• Northern and central Florida are most likely to see these big downpours, on top of the usual afternoon storms.

Many of these spots are dry (in drought) and need rain, but too much at once can cause flash flooding (sudden water in streets), especially in cities. (Safety tips: How to stay safe in a flash flood)

This is a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours.

Also Watching the Eastern Atlantic

Far away near Africa, another group of storms (a tropical wave) is moving across the Atlantic and trying to get organized.

• The National Hurricane Center says it has a low chance of becoming a tropical depression, but it might slowly grow this week.
• This area usually gets busier near August, but storms from Africa often struggle because of strong wind shear (winds that cut storms apart).
• Also, in June and July, these waves often carry dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert, which storms don’t like.

Important Point: Even far-away systems are worth watching, but they are not a big threat right now.

This article was written by Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist at weather.com.

Summary

• A swirl of low pressure may grow into a tropical storm near the Gulf this weekend.
• Heavy rain is likely from Florida to the Carolinas, with flood risk in cities.
• Warm water feeds the storms; three paths are possible after the weekend.
• Another system near Africa is being watched but has a low chance to grow.
• Always be prepared for hurricane season and check weather.com for updates.

FAQ

Q: What is a tropical depression?
A: It’s a weak storm with spinning winds that isn’t strong enough yet to be called a tropical storm.

Q: Do I need to evacuate now?
A: No. Right now there’s not much to worry about, but stay updated in case things change.

Q: Why is warm water important?
A: Warm water acts like fuel for thunderstorms and helps storms get stronger.

Q: What is flash flooding?
A: It’s when heavy rain makes water rise very fast in streets and low areas, which can be dangerous.

Q: What is wind shear?
A: It’s when winds at different heights blow in different directions and can tear a storm apart.